I'm not a military historian, but I'm convinced that wars are largely unpredictable. They're unpredictable in their course and in their outcome. If they're local wars, the unpredictability will be contained in that region. If a global war happens, the unpredictability extends to everything and everybody, however the war won't happen the same everywhere.
The US/Israeli attacks on Iran are a global war, not a regional one. Though their motive may or may not have been only to crush Iran and nothing else, the war instantly extended to the entire Gulf region. And the Gulf region's importance to the world economy is second to none.
Hence, the US and Israel are making economic war on the entire world by using the Gulf as their kinetic battlefield. It's undeclared war, but war in effect.
Wars are unpredictable because wars unleash chaos. And chaos is by definition unpredictable. While I believe Iran has a very good chance to prevail and perhaps even come out stronger from this ordeal, that may not happen. The attackers have the technical ability to obliterate Iran, after all.
One prediction I will make: events in the near-future should show whether the US and Israel are using the war to choke out the world economy, or simply to beat-up Iran.
Wars aren’t random. They follow structure… à la logistics, geography, cost, & regeneration. Once fighting hits the Gulf (happening right now) you’re inside the world’s main energy chokepoint. That sharply limits what outcomes are possible:
The real question isn’t “global vs regional.” It’s exchange rates… namely, Cheap, replaceable missiles & drones versus expensive systems that take months or years to rebuild. Local, dispersed launch networks versus distant, centralized bases. Those trends are not chaotic! 😉
& the “massive damage” claim is overstated… The combined U.S.–Israeli strikes so far amount to just over ~2 kilotons of TNT equivalent… That is three to four orders of magnitude below Korea or Vietnam. This is not system-breaking violence; It is a light, high-cost opening phase… which has already fizzled!
Yes, the attackers have the capacity to escalate. But capacity is not the same as sustainable throughput. If Iran can keep disrupting flows faster than the U.S. and Israel can restore them, the system tilts in Iran’s favor:
This isn’t chaos, It’s a constrained system, and it will resolve along those constraints… with an Iranian victory! 😘
In 1991, 🇺🇸 led a coalition of 950,000 troops to invade saddam’s 🇮🇶… which was 1/4 the surface area & 1/5 the population of 🇮🇷 2026… that was 3+ decades ago:
Today? 🇺🇸 sealift has collapsed to the point where only a couple thousand 🇺🇸 paratroopers and marines can be moved in via airlift to 🇺🇸 bases hundreds of kilometres away from 🇮🇷 proper… 🤣 😂
This is a Moribund Empire… there’s no “Augustus” here it’s all just the final moments before death & implosion! 😉
Does anyone have the link to YT? I can’t seem to do the pic in pic for some reason.
Definitely see Iran’s strategy take shape. I believe it will ultimately break the Zio World Order and that’s a good thing. But I do expect things are going to get much worse here at home.
Trump has completely lost it now. He’s gone full Nero I’m afraid. Some still think he is negotiating. Bullshit, he is lashing out. We are the point he literally put war crimes to paper.
I would be lying if I said that I wasn’t a little concerned. This is very unsettling.
Dude, I haven’t seen you around in ages. Are you enjoying the latest shower of doom, and the new coming Persian supremacy?
The DOOM cometh, fast and furious.
It’s only going to get more interesting! 😊
I'm not a military historian, but I'm convinced that wars are largely unpredictable. They're unpredictable in their course and in their outcome. If they're local wars, the unpredictability will be contained in that region. If a global war happens, the unpredictability extends to everything and everybody, however the war won't happen the same everywhere.
The US/Israeli attacks on Iran are a global war, not a regional one. Though their motive may or may not have been only to crush Iran and nothing else, the war instantly extended to the entire Gulf region. And the Gulf region's importance to the world economy is second to none.
Hence, the US and Israel are making economic war on the entire world by using the Gulf as their kinetic battlefield. It's undeclared war, but war in effect.
Wars are unpredictable because wars unleash chaos. And chaos is by definition unpredictable. While I believe Iran has a very good chance to prevail and perhaps even come out stronger from this ordeal, that may not happen. The attackers have the technical ability to obliterate Iran, after all.
One prediction I will make: events in the near-future should show whether the US and Israel are using the war to choke out the world economy, or simply to beat-up Iran.
“Unpredictability” is doing too much work here:
Wars aren’t random. They follow structure… à la logistics, geography, cost, & regeneration. Once fighting hits the Gulf (happening right now) you’re inside the world’s main energy chokepoint. That sharply limits what outcomes are possible:
The real question isn’t “global vs regional.” It’s exchange rates… namely, Cheap, replaceable missiles & drones versus expensive systems that take months or years to rebuild. Local, dispersed launch networks versus distant, centralized bases. Those trends are not chaotic! 😉
& the “massive damage” claim is overstated… The combined U.S.–Israeli strikes so far amount to just over ~2 kilotons of TNT equivalent… That is three to four orders of magnitude below Korea or Vietnam. This is not system-breaking violence; It is a light, high-cost opening phase… which has already fizzled!
Yes, the attackers have the capacity to escalate. But capacity is not the same as sustainable throughput. If Iran can keep disrupting flows faster than the U.S. and Israel can restore them, the system tilts in Iran’s favor:
This isn’t chaos, It’s a constrained system, and it will resolve along those constraints… with an Iranian victory! 😘
No, he’s going full Augustus. The ‘The Republic’ (or ‘the democracy’-if you will) is being ended. The empire is just warming up.
Liabilities (Europa, if you will) are being thrown under the bus, & more energetic allies are being ‘acquired’
Buckle up, bitchezzzzz!!!
In 1991, 🇺🇸 led a coalition of 950,000 troops to invade saddam’s 🇮🇶… which was 1/4 the surface area & 1/5 the population of 🇮🇷 2026… that was 3+ decades ago:
Today? 🇺🇸 sealift has collapsed to the point where only a couple thousand 🇺🇸 paratroopers and marines can be moved in via airlift to 🇺🇸 bases hundreds of kilometres away from 🇮🇷 proper… 🤣 😂
This is a Moribund Empire… there’s no “Augustus” here it’s all just the final moments before death & implosion! 😉
Does anyone have the link to YT? I can’t seem to do the pic in pic for some reason.
Definitely see Iran’s strategy take shape. I believe it will ultimately break the Zio World Order and that’s a good thing. But I do expect things are going to get much worse here at home.
Trump has completely lost it now. He’s gone full Nero I’m afraid. Some still think he is negotiating. Bullshit, he is lashing out. We are the point he literally put war crimes to paper.
I would be lying if I said that I wasn’t a little concerned. This is very unsettling.
Never mind got it
https://www.youtube.com/live/Ey6hFhk1RJc?si=t1vWEwnjEna501qL