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Mr. Raven's avatar

Dude, I havenโ€™t seen you around in ages. Are you enjoying the latest shower of doom, and the new coming Persian supremacy?

Richard Roskell's avatar

I'm not a military historian, but I'm convinced that wars are largely unpredictable. They're unpredictable in their course and in their outcome. If they're local wars, the unpredictability will be contained in that region. If a global war happens, the unpredictability extends to everything and everybody, however the war won't happen the same everywhere.

The US/Israeli attacks on Iran are a global war, not a regional one. Though their motive may or may not have been only to crush Iran and nothing else, the war instantly extended to the entire Gulf region. And the Gulf region's importance to the world economy is second to none.

Hence, the US and Israel are making economic war on the entire world by using the Gulf as their kinetic battlefield. It's undeclared war, but war in effect.

Wars are unpredictable because wars unleash chaos. And chaos is by definition unpredictable. While I believe Iran has a very good chance to prevail and perhaps even come out stronger from this ordeal, that may not happen. The attackers have the technical ability to obliterate Iran, after all.

One prediction I will make: events in the near-future should show whether the US and Israel are using the war to choke out the world economy, or simply to beat-up Iran.

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