The Fall of The West

I. The Collapse of Global Systems, Geo-Economic Strife, & Geopolitical Conflict

, wrote one of his all-time greatest hits. Titled The Next Ten Billion Years (2013), he takes the reader from the world of the familiar present to the alien future, long bereft of mankind.

More than a year ago, it was primarily a re-reading of this essay which gave Your Friendly Neighbourhood DOOM Merchant the requisite confidence to begin Smelting DOOM, gloom & despair for all my lovely Dear Readers & Listeners!1 😊

While Yours Truly will not be doing something so ambitious as portending all the vicissitudes of ‘Deep Time’ in its DOOM-ful splendour, I can do the next best thing.2

Namely, I can outline briefly the macro trends that I foresee taking shape over the next century or so worldwide. & by ‘macro,’ I mean the more significant movements in Politics, Society, Culture, Technology, etc., given the next several decades.3

As for micro-events & specifics regarding ‘Country X & Country Y,’ that is outside the scope of this essay for the simple reason that we are taking the ‘Bird’s Eye View.’4

Likewise, I can’t say with certainty *the exact moment* these things will occur. I could be off by 1-2 decades on many of these predictions. Instead, given the present trendlines, these events will happen simply as a matter of Brute Fact.5

The first quarter of the 21st century has already passed us by.

These first 25 years have given us more than enough data to analyze trends from the end of the 20th century… & make some guesses about what the rest of the 21st century likely holds for Materials, Energy, Ecology, Demography, & Technology.

One of the reasons DOOM-ers like myself do not believe in ‘Solutions’ has to do with the basic fact that for every ‘Solution,’ there tend to be several more Problems that are created, even if the initial problem is (temporarily) ‘Solved’ in the meantime.

Whilst Problems take on this general character, they eventually create Predicaments when they compound. These states of affairs have no ‘Solutions’ at all, given their intractable scale, size, complexity & overall scope.

Per Philosopher Timothy Morton, they become ‘Hyperobjects,’ entities incapable of ‘Solutions,’ for their spatial & temporal qualities are wholly alien to the Human mind.

It is these ‘Hyperobjects’ that we will examine throughout the remainder of this essay.6

& so, given these intractable Predicaments, what better to do than make some DOOM-ful predictions of the short to medium-term future?7 😎

One idea could be to do a follow-up every year, i.e., ‘The Next 99 Years, ’ ‘The Next 98 Years,’… & so on & so forth, for as long as Yours Truly doesn’t hit the bucket. Call it a DOOM-ful Countdown, if you will, Dear Readers & Listeners!8 😊

Without further adieu, here are the larger-order trends, patterns, etc., envisioned by Your Friendly Neighbourhood DOOM Merchant… on how Faustian Man & the Industrial world he built, writ large, will fall apart in the coming decades! 😉

II. Social Dissolution, Autocracy & The End of the Liberal Democratic Order

III. Technological Regression & The Localization of Economic Activity

IV. Political Fragmentation & The Simplification of Global Statecraft

V. Growing Crises in Food Security & Resource Management Worldwide

VI. Steady Reclamation of Traditional Knowledge & Low-Tech Solutions

VII. Limited Ecological Restoration & Biodiversity Conservation

VIII. Stabilization via Localized Economies & Resource Sharing Initiatives

IX. Slow Cultural Renaissance & A Renewed Emphasis on Sustainability

X. Population Decline, Environmental Stewardship & Resource Equilibrium

XI. Gradual Technological Stabilization & Adaptation to Low-Energy Systems

XII. Arcadianism, Ecosophy, Ecotechnics, Retrotopia & Bionomics

Conclusion: The Fall of The West

The DOOM Cometh…!

Bibliography

Footnotes

I. The Collapse of Global Systems, Geo-Economic Strife, & Geopolitical Conflict

Global Geo-Economic Disintegration: The Breakdown of Global Supply Chains & Trade Networks- As global geo-economic disintegration unfolds, the world will witness a dramatic breakdown of the interconnected supply chains & international trade networks supporting the modern global economy. The cumulative pressures of resource depletion, climate change, & social unrest will expose the fragility of the global economic system. The reliance on just-in-time supply chains & the heavy dependence on global shipping routes will become increasingly unsustainable as climate-related disasters, political instability, & resource scarcity disrupt key production areas. With trade barriers rising & countries retreating into economic isolationism, the world economy will fragment into regional blocs, each focused on securing its resource base. The global market will splinter, leading to the collapse of multinational corporations, a decline in foreign direct investment, & the erosion of the institutions that have governed global economic relations for decades.

The 21st century began with the ignoble end to the Pax Americana, thanks to the 9/11 attacks & the ensuing ‘Global War on Terror.’ These events helped to precipitate a decisive end to Fukuyama’s vision of ‘The End of History & the Last Man.’9

Since then, tensions have ratcheted up slowly & steadily between the United States & its vassals (on the one hand) & the Eurasian powers (i.e., China, Russia, Iran & friends) on the other hand. The world today is, thus, rapidly bifurcating into competing blocs.

In the coming quarter-century, circa 2025—2050, these simmering tensions will escalate & spill over into open hostilities as World Wars make their ignoble return.10

World War III, which (as of this writing) is either ongoing presently or will soon go fully kinetic, will be the first of a long line of said conflicts, as the collapse of Global Systems gets exacerbated by rapid Geopolitical & Geo-economic Earthquakes.

Global Supply Chains & Trade Networks that are vital to the daily functioning of small businesses, consumptive behaviour & generic confidence will buckle as regional conflicts turn into more significant wars, which will then turn into Global Conflicts.11

Borders & Maps will get redrawn as the victors of these sundry Conflicts build novel security architectures. These architectures will, in turn, mean the dissolution of the interconnected & Globalized economy of today & its sundry derivatives:

‘Just in Time’ Supply Chains connecting China, Russia, Iran, etc., to the Global North will shatter, with the surplus consumables & commodities in said arrangements getting consumed more & more by citizens inhabiting the Eurasian bloc.

We’ll see the definitive end to the ignoble ‘Wealth Pump’ of the Eurodollar system, whereby the lion’s share of inflation & other Economic maladies from the Western world get offloaded onto the Global South in exchange for said tangible goods.12

As Global Supply Chains & Trade Networks simplify, Spheres of Influence will pop up, involving the Great Powers in their respective Spheres, keeping more & more of their surplus commodities & consumables to themselves for future use.

We’ll then see Economic Isolationism, Trade barriers & other related arrangements, all of which will, in turn, exacerbate Global Armed Conflict as commerce & peaceful exchange wither away & kinetic force gains prominence once more.13

Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations & related entities & pursuits will wither due to localism & regionalism playing more outsized roles worldwide. Eventually, such decay will result in the breakdown of global economic relations.14

Technophilic solutions focusing primarily on novel financial architectures to improve trading relations between peoples & nations will likewise wither as energy, demographic & resource constraints make such arrangements increasingly scarce.

The world of tomorrow will have fewer tokens, cryptocurrencies & whatnot, with more barter, local exchange, etc. Certainly, crypto & related pursuits may thrive in select parts of the world for a Time, but material realities will ultimately limit this.15

Thus, all these Bifurcations will decisively end this brief era of Global Interconnectivity, which we have all enjoyed.

II. Social Dissolution, Autocracy & The End of the Liberal Democratic Order

Social Dissolution & Authoritarianism: The Collapse of Democracy in the Face of Crisis- In times of social dissolution, democracy & pluralism falter, authoritarianism becomes an attractive alternative for societies in crisis. From 2025 to 2050, rising inequality, economic collapse, & climate-induced disasters will accelerate the breakdown of social cohesion, leading to the disillusionment of large swaths of the population with the democratic process. As traditional political institutions struggle to adapt, authoritarian leaders will leverage fears of chaos & disorder to seize control, promising to restore national unity & economic stability. Increased surveillance, restricted freedoms, & the consolidation of power in the hands of a few will mark this shift toward authoritarianism. The social contract will dissolve as people prioritize security & order, sacrificing fundamental democratic values & freedoms. The rise of authoritarianism signals the end of the post-World War II democratic order, now replaced by more autocratic & populist forms of governance.

The integrity of whole nations will crumble in the coming quarter-century & beyond.

Democracy & Democratic institutions, writ large, are already buckling under pressure from the ‘perfect storm’ brought about via Mass Migration, Peak Cheap Oil, & Agricultural failures, as said trio will exacerbate a whole host of future calamities:

Crop failures in large parts of the Global South will exacerbate enormous tidal waves of Mass Migration. Many of these societies already have male surpluses, meaning that said waves will comprise primarily men ages 20 to 40.16

Peak Cheap Oil for most developed nations, meanwhile, has already been hit. For the global per capita number, we reached it in 1971 & for conventional sources, it was in 2005. Shale & non-conventional sources are about to peak.17

For said non-conventional sources, all indications are that the timeframe is at most 1-2 decades in the future, which (as of this writing) means 2045 at the latest.

Finally, Agricultural Failures brought about via Climate Change, Topsoil Depletion, & Biomass reduction will cement in Young Men across Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia & elsewhere the resolve to migrate to ‘Greener Pastures.’18

All these will converge onto one another to create Gargantuan Migration waves, making Jean Raspail’s The Camp of The Saints (1973) look like a Summer Picnic as legions of Asiatic & African men begin moving toward the Global North en masse.

These events will mean the ungluing of Democratic institutions & governments as the sundry Western nations try to cope with World Historical Migration waves & Demographic Shifts for which they will lack adequate preparation.19

The Median Ages for most European nations have passed into the 40s, with the likes of Italy & Germany already well into the late 40s. Such trends mean inadequate men for the armed forces, police & other critical institutions during said timeframe.20

Economic implosion brought about via the suppression of wages thanks to Mass Migration will mean the rise of Populism in tandem with pro-Autocratic sentiments across Europe & the wider West. Pluralism, meanwhile, will rapidly hollow out:

The breakdown of social cohesion brought about via Mass Migratory waves will enable sundry governments to crack down with more brutality on their citizenry as Police States & Censorship become the norm in the developed world.21

These trends will, in turn, lead to emigration waves of young working professionals (white, black & brown) as Social Dissolution & Disillusionment with the unravelling of the Social Contract & Traditional Political Institutions become a permanent fixture.

Authoritarian leaders will leverage these downward trends, stoking fears, vitriol & scapegoating to make empty promises of national renewal & economic stability. Instead, such figures will pursue greater control over things & consolidate power.

By mid-century, as natural births decline, young working men will be forbidden from leaving their respective nations. Simultaneously, various countries, now suffering mass labour shortages, will court foreign men en masse.

This paradox (i.e. Mass Migration alongside Labour shortages) will kill the Westphalian nation-state in Europe & beyond, with newer models taking their place.22

III. Technological Regression & The Localization of Economic Activity

Technological Regression & Localization: Adapting to a Post-Industrial World- The collapse of industrial civilization will lead to a tech regression that forces societies to rely on older, simpler technologies as complex systems disintegrate. By 2050, as resource depletion & environmental collapse devastate the global economy, nations will shift from centralized, tech-dependent models to localized & resilient communities. The overreliance on high-tech solutions--from automation to artificial intelligence--will falter as energy crises & supply chain disruptions make these systems unsustainable. In the aftermath, people will turn to localized economies, relying on renewable resources, low-tech agriculture, & community-driven solutions to meet their needs. The regression of Technology will be a painful but necessary shift towards a more straightforward way of life, where tools, infrastructure, & social organization get scaled down to more manageable levels that can endure the challenges of a post-industrial world.

Deindustrialization across Europe in the coming quarter-century will mean Technological Stagnation & Regression across the wider Western world & beyond.

The ‘Monofuture,’ comprising Fusion Power, Artificial Intelligence, & Interstellar Migration, will suffer a mortal blow from which it won’t recover. Some ‘True Believers’ will remain, but most ordinary people will eschew said ideas entirely in the future.23

As the daily lives of people across the West (& non-West) become more brutal, with groceries & bare essentials becoming nigh impossible to garner, all ideas, hopes, dreams, & copes about a ‘wonderful future’ will steadily get displaced.24

Governments will not admit it openly (nor should one expect them to!). Still, in their daily actions & policy proposals, there will be an increased emphasis on Autarky, self-reliance & related notions, especially as times go from bad to worse.

The ‘Rightward Shift’ will occur slowly & steadily first, & then it will speed up considerably mid-century & beyond, as Governments treat their leftover energy & material resources like individuals treat their money.25

Such trends will mean that Value Chains will Simplify, & Local Economies will regress & utilize more appropriate technologies more conducive to the New, low-energy, materials-scarce environment. Said changes will occur in a ‘bottom-up’ fashion:

The State Apparatus of the developed nations will be hard-pressed to provide essential services like electricity, running water, waste disposal, etc., as maintenance & upkeep costs will back-break said Governments, making them Impotent.26

Local warlords, sub-state actors, criminals, etc., will steadily step in & provide said services & goods instead as order & governance break down. Initially, this will be in the frontier & borderlands, & slowly, it will work back into the dense urban centres.

Meanwhile, Human Capital outflows (a la the Emigration waves noted earlier) will run in tandem with general erosion & spoilage of Critical Infrastructure. As things break down further, scavenging & looting will become the norm in most nations.27

What remains of State & Government resources will be allocated to put a lid on these activities, which will further overstretch these institutions. As these entities steadily fall apart due to said overreach, their successors will begin to step up to the plate.

Technology, which is inherently bounded & endogenous to surpluses in Materials, Energy, Ecology, & Demography, will inevitably simplify as new, more nimble, local & decentralized regimes take the levers of Power & Influence from nation-states.

A quarter-century from now, such regimes will have to contend with a Deindustrial Economy bereft of the inordinate quantities of Fossil Fuels we consume today.

They will be living on the downward slope of a Fossil-Fueled Carbon Pulse that, for the past nearly three centuries, has enabled Faustian Man to run an Industrial Society that would have appeared to our ancestors to be indistinguishable from magic.28

They & their descendants, as well as future societies, will not have access to such things. Ipso facto, they will use technologies & social arrangements that are more appropriate for sundry occasions, with lower Energy & Material footprints.29

IV. Political Fragmentation & The Simplification of Global Statecraft

Political Fissures & the Rise of Localized Governance- Between 2050 & 2075, the world will witness the deepening of political fissures as global systems collapse under resource depletion, climate change, & social instability. As nation-states struggle to address these challenges, political simplification will take root, with increasing numbers of regions & localities seeking autonomy or independence from weakened central governments. The rise of localized governance will be driven by a desire for greater self-sufficiency & control over limited resources as large-scale governance structures fail to meet the needs of increasingly fragmented societies. Local communities will adopt decentralized models, prioritizing immediate survival & resource management over global cooperation. Traditional forms of democratic governance will give way to smaller, more autonomous systems, whether in regional alliances or direct action councils. This period will mark the end of the age of global institutions & the beginning of an era where the most resilient societies will be those that can simplify governance & focus on localized, sustainable solutions.

The Westphalian system will slowly disintegrate in the coming 3-5 decades.

For over three centuries, national sovereignty & territorial integrity have been the Gold Standards of Domestic Policy & International Relations. This has been true since at least the Peace of Westphalia, when ‘Cuius Regio, Eius Religio’ was formalized.30

That Time is now over, & it won’t be coming back anytime soon.

Once curtailed decisively by the nation-state’s sundry advantages in industrial production, demography, etc., substate actors are once more rapidly gaining ground & are reaching levels of prominence & influence not seen since the Middle Ages.31

As Criminals, warlords, terrorists & guerrillas reach ever-increasing parity against their State foes due to cheaper marginal costs, lower technical barriers of entry, etc., the nation-state must fight such foes whilst also preserving what already exists:

Roads need to be maintained, bridges need to be built & trash needs to continue being picked up… all while said foes close in from all directions with every increasing zeal.

Complex dynamic systems of the sort built & maintained in this manner require ever-increasing inflows of energy, materials & demography, coupled with the requisite Ecological Biocapacity necessary to make these inflows possible to begin with.32

Eastern European nations, such as Bulgaria & Romania, are already seeing mass outflows in their young population. Bulgaria, which peaked at 8.9 million people in 1989, today has just over 6.7 million people & is rapidly falling apart.33

Mid-century & beyond, statecraft in these societies will have to deal with endemic corruption, nepotism, crumbling infrastructure, non-existent industry & enormous amounts of graft & corruption, all thanks to aging & population contraction.

This will mean simplifying the state apparatus & wider culture to cope with an increasingly Negative-Sum world, in which transactions between two or more parties suggest that the total size of the Pie decreases at the end of said interaction.34

In this world, politics will slowly devolve back down to the local level since the state apparatus & bureaucracy needed to delegate from the top down will erode too much to be helpful, especially for those at the top who love to skim for benefits.

This ‘abandonment of duty’ by sundry fat cats is already happening in large chunks of Eastern Europe & elsewhere, where the local crime boss has far more sway on the neighbourhood’s affairs than the Central Government, many miles away in the capital.

Fragmentation is the natural consequence of such a process playing out to its logical conclusion. If the local crime boss can accrue sufficient means & manpower to declare his local fiefdom, he will seize that opportunity out of Naked Self-Interest.

Worldwide, this will play out over the coming decades at varying speeds, scales & scopes. Nations once thought to be ‘eternal’ & their peoples & demographic compositions ‘everlasting’ will rapidly implode in this Negative-Sum environment.35

The most brutal hit will be to societies hollowed out en masse by Natural Decrease & emigration. Europe, in particular, will cease to exist by the century’s end.36

V. Growing Crises in Food Security & Resource Management Worldwide

Food & Resource Scarcity & Outages: Political & Economic Instability in a Resource-Depleted World- As food & resource scarcity tightens its grip on the global population from 2050 to 2075, outages in critical infrastructure will become a defining feature of political & economic life. With resource-rich regions becoming increasingly contested & international trade routes threatened by climate-induced migration, geopolitical conflict, & resource wars, nations will struggle to secure the food, energy, & raw materials necessary to sustain their populations. The collapse of energy grids & widespread power outages will become routine, especially in areas already vulnerable to infrastructure failure. Food shortages will lead to rations, black markets, & government control over food distribution. The scarcity of resources will deepen political divisions as the divide between resource-rich & resource-poor regions grows. As a result, the global economy will become further fragmented, with a growing emphasis on national resource control & localized survival systems. Social unrest, civil conflict, & authoritarianism may rise as governments struggle to manage these growing crises.

As energy & material flows stagnate & decline, the four pillars of modern industrial society, namely Steel, Plastics, Ammonia, & Concrete, will also stagnate & fall in the coming several decades. In the allegedly ‘developed’ world, this has already begun.37

By the late 21st century, this will mean Food Insecurity & Starvation worldwide.

This is because the requisite infrastructure necessary to upkeep & maintain Global Value Chains will have deteriorated by then to the point of irrelevance.

What that means is that ships & planes carrying the requisite food & water will not make it to market, thanks to the simplification & whole supply chains.

National governments, or whatever is left of them, will scramble to try & secure what little they have left, with Water & Soil wars breaking out worldwide. Freshwater & Chernozem, once taken for granted, will become more valuable than gold & jewels.38

Topsoil degradation in the coming decades will mean that by mid-century, the global amount of arable & productive land per person will, at most, reach a quarter of what was accessible to the average person in 1960, just a mere six decades ago.39

Freshwater resources will likewise come under increasing scrutiny, with larger nations seeking to coerce smaller ones into signing ‘unequal treaties’ concerning usage & access rights, with outright hostilities also breaking out occasionally.40

The mechanization of farms has already peaked in most of the industrial world, with nations like Japan showing declines in Farm machinery per unit of agricultural land.41

The outright end of mechanization (present & near future) will mean increasing material & energy flows necessary to feed Human populations worldwide. & while it is true that Population contraction is now ‘baked in,’ social mobility has yet to peak:

The standard of living is still anemically increasing in much of the Western world thanks to high life expectancies, access to public services & other variables.

While these, too, will eventually peak, stagnate & decline, they will, in the meantime, put further strain & pressure on already declining & Moribund soil & water resources.

Eventually, sometime in the late 21st century, this will mean excess deaths via starvation, neglect, crime & invasions for large chunks of the dependent population, namely the sick, children, the elderly, childbearing women, the disabled, etc.42

These will not happen overnight but will slowly tick up over Time yearly.

The consequence of these compounding tragedies will mean that whatever remains of National governments by the 21st century’s end will try their best to eke out a living with what labour force & material-energy resources they have left over.

This, in turn, will mean outright neglect of public works, infrastructure, etc., as resource management takes a turn toward more immediate & pressing needs.

By the late 21st century, much of Eastern & Southern Europe will thus begin to ‘Re-wild’ thanks to these pressures. This will then act as magnets for ‘invaders’ & migrants who will see empty, hollowed-out land that is ripe for the taking by brute force.43

VI. Steady Reclamation of Traditional Knowledge & Low-Tech Solutions

Reclamation of Traditional Knowledge & Low-Tech Solutions: Building Resilient Systems for a Sustainable Future- As food shortages, resource depletion, & energy outages become increasingly common, the reclamation of traditional knowledge & low-tech solutions will offer pathways toward creating resilient systems for a more sustainable future. Societies, forced to adapt to local challenges, will turn to methods once considered obsolete but are now as crucial for survival. Traditional building techniques, such as earth-based construction (e.g., cob, adobe, & rammed Earth), will be rediscovered as energy-efficient, low-cost solutions for shelter. Similarly, low-tech water management systems, like rainwater harvesting & drip irrigation, will become vital for securing clean water & ensuring agricultural productivity. In addition, craftsmanship & local production will replace global manufacturing, empowering communities to regain autonomy & reduce dependence on the fragile, globalized economy. These low-tech, sustainable practices will ensure survival & foster a renewed sense of community cohesion & cultural continuity in the face of global upheaval.

As the Deindustrial Night creeps in from all sides, many communities will pursue ‘business as usual’ & cling to whatever Technophillic fantasy du jour they can find. This variety of Cornucopian thinking will likely be prevalent for centuries to come.44

However, there will be those who choose to take the ‘Low-tech’ approach:

Some will do so out of necessity, thanks to the energy, materials, demography & ecology constraints they find their communities embedded in.

Many others will do so out of choice as they see the failures & setbacks suffered by those around them who insist that ‘everything is fine!’ & then continue to bash their heads into the wall of restoring several families of ‘High-tech’ approaches.45

This will mean gradually incorporating more localized forms of know-how endogenous to the land & its various peculiarities. The Industrial world’s notion of the ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy of maximizing energy-material flows for ‘High-tech’ solutions…

…will be slowly displaced in favour of Bioregionalism & other related approaches.46

For instance, Indigenous communities like the Inuit have profound cultural & social depth. This has enabled them to develop a ‘Technics’ that is local & ‘fitted’ to the ecological niches & bioregions of the Arctic, where they evolved over centuries.47

Permaculture, a relatively rare hobby for a select few in much of the Industrial world, will find a gradual uptick in its adherents as communities wrestle with less arable land & freshwater owing to the ecological degradation of the past several decades.48

Distributism & Localism, models for the economy, politics & wider society that today have only a few zealous adherents… will likewise find gradually increased adoption.

This is not to say that all these models will immediately displace what existed prior, namely modernity & its various corollaries. Instead, we will see them start making inroads in the late 21st century & beyond into the broader society with more gravitas.

This is because Failure is often the ultimate medicine for those hopelessly enamoured by the sundry siren songs & perils of Industrial society & its discontents. & it will be an outright Failure of the ‘High-tech’ approach that will ‘break the spell’ for many.49

Yet, for others, this will be an era of triumph, one that gradually further cements itself:

Those who have long been worried by the loss of traditional knowledge will find that said Intangible Cultural Heritage will discover a new, ready home in a world that is once more subject to Negative Feedback Loops, & requires localized solutions.

The era of the ‘Big Infrastructure Project’ will end as more Bioregional pursuits become the norm, in tandem with those seeking to maintain older Modernist infrastructure as best they can. This Hybrid approach will persist for several centuries.

The ‘Elites’ of this era will not be Corporate & Managerial like today but rather Manufacturing-oriented in the Hybrid context noted earlier.

The Agrarian-oriented ‘Elites,’ meanwhile, will not appear so long as Modernity’s ruins can be scavenged at reasonable energy-material margins…

…but that tale is for another Time!50 😉

VII. Limited Ecological Restoration & Biodiversity Conservation

Ecological Restoration & Biodiversity Conservation- Rewilding & Revitalization: As 2075 to 2100 progress, humanity’s commitment to environmental Restoration will drive Rewilding efforts slowly & steadily. Large swathes of land once converted for agriculture or urban development will be Rewilded- allowing Nature to reclaim its space. Keystone species will be reintroduced to ecosystems, & carefully planned biodiversity conservation efforts will aim to reestablish natural populations of animals & plants. Steady Restoration of natural carbon sinks like forests & wetlands will play a central role in addressing climate change & ensuring global carbon neutrality. The growing realization that the integrity of ecosystems is crucial to human survival will drive policies aimed at protecting biodiversity, not just as a moral imperative but as the basis for human resilience in a world still grappling with climate impacts & environmental degradation.

The degradation of Biocapacity worldwide is tied to the fact that Humans have been in Ecological Overshoot for over half a century now, with no signs of stopping.51

Trespassing Allah Most High’s limits ( ‘Nature’s limits’ if you are secular! 😉) in this manner is something organisms have done before, with very predictable results:

First, you get Population Growth beyond Carrying Capacity. Then you get the state of Overshoot to linger for some Time (this is where we presently dwell), culminating with simultaneous Contractions in Population, Future Carrying Capacity & other areas.52

Already, we see ever-increasing Population Contraction, Biodiversity Loss, & Resource Depletion globally. By the end of this century, these will converge to decimate & gradually grind down whole communities & their local biomes.53

These shifts will prompt more significant attention to ecological concerns, as the decimation of food webs & related structures will wreak havoc on agricultural activity.

Insect populations are vital to pollinating the lion’s share of our crops. The Western Honeybee (Apis mellifera) alone, for instance, pollinates around half of said crops.54

As these populations are decimated, with some rendered outright Extinct by the 21st century’s end, brute pragmatism will prompt sundry communities to take Biodiversity Loss & related Ecological issues more seriously, given rampant Food Insecurity.

For many, however, it will be ‘A Day Late & A Dollar Short.’

The Living Planet Index, analyzing some 34,836 wildlife populations & 5,495 native species this past half-century, found that over 70% of said monitored wildlife have already declined, with further declines expected mid to late 21st century.55

Technological stagnation, upward social mobility in the developing world & continued population growth in the Global South mean that there will be greater demand for farmland, even though crop yields will likely stagnate outright.

Thus, for the next few decades till about the mid-21st century, more cropland will become a prerogative for National governments, who will resort to clearing out jungles, forests, etc., en masse to account for the trends noted earlier.56

Such prerogatives will continue to put added pressure on Biodiversity & Ecology till ‘something breaks’ by the century’s end. At that point, even more strain will be placed on communities that ignore Ecological concerns outright.

Pursuits like ‘Rewilding’ will not enter the popular consciousness overnight; however, such notions will begin to appear on the frontier, especially among those communities worst impacted by all the sundry pressures we have touched upon.

We won’t see such things pursued willingly, nor should we expect them to!

This is because the essence of Faustian Man is to reject outright the existence of limits on his actions, instead blaming a lack of knowledge &/or values &/or willpower on the discrepancy (i.e. regarding what is possible v.s. what can be done *actually*).57

This is a feature, not a bug. & we can expect the 21st century to conclude with said feature intact in many parts of the now Moribund Western world.

It will, however, be dealt a mortal blow from which it won’t recover.

VIII. Stabilization via Localized Economies & Resource Sharing Projects

Stabilization Through Localized Economies & Resource Sharing: A Post-Industrial World of Cooperative Networks- Between 2075 & 2100, the collapse of industrial civilization & the erosion of centralized governance will give rise to new models of localized economies & resource sharing. Without global institutions, communities will create cooperative networks that allow for exchanging goods, services, & information based on mutual aid & shared responsibility. Resource sharing will be essential to meet local needs as centralized supply chains become unsustainable. Communities will establish local energy grids, water management systems, & food production networks, relying on sustainable agricultural practices & renewable energy sources. Rather than focusing on individual profit, these economies prioritize collective well-being & social equity, enabling societies to thrive despite external pressures. This economic self-sufficiency & cooperation model will be a key stabilizing force, allowing communities to weather the disruptions of the global collapse & rebuild from the ground up.

As the Old World gradually crumbles, societies will find that Markets & the interaction of buyers & sellers to determine pricing… become increasingly irrelevant.

Transactions will become more face-to-face, & the ‘online world’ we all take for granted will slowly fade into something more niche, limited & specialized, available in select locales with the requisite spare electricity & materials to upkeep it.

Gift economies, Barter & other related pursuits will gradually develop as the usage of moneyed currencies sees a steady decline sometime mid to late century & beyond.58

Steady-state, sedentary & subsistence lifestyles will begin to reappear worldwide en masse, signalling what the father of Modern Economics, Adam Smith, noted long ago regarding the temporary Nature of the Industrial Revolution & its corollaries.59

As they slowly chip away at the Paradigm of ‘Infinite Growth,’ now a shallow, empty husk of what it once triumphantly was… stability & continuity become relevant pursuits, & some communities will begin to pursue said objectives actively.

However, they will find that the lion’s share of their neighbours still prefer reminiscing about the ‘Lost Majesties’ of the Old World, for which many will continue to yearn for centuries more, even as conditions around them gradually worsen.60

A minority of people, meanwhile, will gradually come around to recognizing the novelty of their Deindustrial lifestyle & how said Empirical Reality necessitates a shift toward localization, especially regarding food, water, energy & other essentials.

Global Institutions & Central governance structures, rendered irrelevant by the pressures of past decades, will open up vacuums that are filled by these minorities, as well as by those who yearn for a return to a mythic, increasingly non-existent past.

Economic Self-Sufficiency, once an empty slogan bereft of meaning, will be actualized by these small communities who choose collective well-being, tradition, mutual aid, resource sharing & other related ventures over a now utterly disgraced capitalism.61

Meanwhile, Negative Feedback loops, which Humans have not seen in well over three centuries, will make their gradual comeback & thereby demand that limits be observed by individuals & communities. Otherwise, said people will perish en masse.

These selection pressures will mean greater cooperation, not out of morality & sagacity, but due to mutual interest, pragmatism & other self-centric motivations.62

Various initiatives will be pursued by said small groups to try & seek equilibrium with their local life-supporting systems, namely freshwater sources, arable land, etc. In particular, Churches, Mosques, etc., will play a vital role in said stabilization.

‘The Commons’ & our understanding of how they function, who they ought to benefit & how they ought to be allocated will see gradual shifts by the century’s end, moving gradually toward more Biocentric notions while also eschewing Anthropocentrism.63

Technophilia will not die this century, nor perhaps the next several centuries, given its hold on the popular psyche. For that, said Moribund Dogma must be replaced wholly by new meta-narratives, & an entirely new, meaningful way Humans view themselves…

…something that you only get from the outright Genesis of New Civilizations!64 😉

IX. Slow Cultural Renaissance & A Renewed Emphasis on Sustainability

Cultural Renaissance & Emphasis on Sustainability: A New Worldview for the Post-Industrial Era- As industrial society fades & the effects of climate change become undeniable, a cultural renaissance will arise between 2075 & 2100, characterized by a profound shift in how humanity views itself about the Earth. The long-standing human dominance over Nature will be replaced by a new worldview emphasizing interconnection & sustainability. People will embrace lifestyles prioritizing the planet’s well-being, choosing localism, simplicity, & resilience over global consumption & waste. Education systems will evolve to teach the interconnectedness of all living things, & the arts will flourish in forms that celebrate ecological balance & Nature’s cycles. Sustainability will be an environmental issue & a cultural revolution where every community, regardless of size or location, becomes a microcosm of ecological stewardship. This renaissance will revive spiritual & cultural practices that honour the Earth, leading to a world where humanity’s purpose aligns with the flourishing of life in all its forms.

Today’s Western world is in an increasingly downward, consumerist death spiral. Its utterly bankrupt & Moribund set of worldviews that worship only the Almighty Dollar, Boundless Innovation, & Human Cleverness will not survive a Negative-Sum World.65

Faustian Culture thus worships Progress, Infinite Growth & other absurdities, which allegedly are responsible for Man’s continued ‘March out of the Caves & into the Stars!’ yet it has all but extinguished what little vigour & dynamism it once possessed.

‘The relentless pursuit of infinite expansion—intellectually, technologically, & spatially—driven by an unyielding will to overcome all limits.’ — this Faustian maxim & prime directive will find itself gradually overcome by century’s end by its antonymic nemesis:

‘The passive acceptance of finite stasis—mentally, materially, & locally—guided by a resigned submission to inherent limitations.’ — this maxim of the anti-Faustian Cultural Renaissance will cement itself by the century’s end, expressing itself in myriad ways:

For some, the Ecological Crisis & its ensuing fallout on Human Activity (such as agriculture) will be the impetus to take a more critical look at man’s insistence that his Cleverness is sufficient to ‘Solve’ all of the world’s alleged problems.66

For others, it may just be as simple as recognizing that God Almighty’s Limits cannot (& should not) be transgressed &, thereby meaning that such pursuits stop. Sustainability, then, in all one’s dealings with Nature, is Non-Negotiable.67

Today, it’s more a ‘Lifestyle Choice’ for most. & for others, it is a form of naive ‘Virtue Signalling’ via which they signal to others (especially one’s peers) that they have internalized several aspects of relevant Regime Programming. That will soon change:

As times get rough & the Old Forms become ever more irrelevant in the face of rolling crises, compounding illths & disintegration of wealth, Sustainability in all areas of Human Activity will gradually become more common out of sheer Necessity.68

Once we calibrate the data from around a decade ago, today’s massive yields from synthetic fertilizers likely feed well over half the World.

This means around 4+ billion people total.69

This luxury won’t be available by the century’s end, given energy-material constraints coupled with Ecological limits, thanks to the Predicament of Overshoot.70

This means that communities will be compelled to utilize ‘Lower-Energy’ modes such as Organic farming & related pursuits to eke out, as best they can, a relatively nutritious diet using far fewer overall resources & with a far simpler Value Chain.

These pursuits, in turn, will only exacerbate more Biocentric worldviews, further eroding the various Anthropocentric modes that we began the 21st century with.

As the 21st century finally grinds to an end in this manner, there will be far fewer people overall worldwide, nowhere near the 6.1 billion we began with.71

Thus, the 22nd century will not begin with the sundry Grand Faustian Meta-Narratives of boundless growth, human ingenuity & indomitable willpower.

Instead, it will commence with an Exhaustion of Mind, Body, & Soul, an Exhaustion yearning for closure & harmony… things which the Faustian mode failed to provide.

X. Population Decline, Environmental Stewardship & Resource Equilibrium

Global Environmental Stewardship & Resource Equilibrium--The Restoration of Earth’s Systems: Between 2100 & 2125, global environmental stewardship will be considered the essential framework for human survival & planetary Restoration. With climate change & resource depletion reshaping the planet’s ecosystems, the focus will be on repairing damage & establishing resource equilibrium, where human activity no longer overburdens Earth’s natural systems. The steady Restoration of forests, wetlands, & marine ecosystems will be central to this effort, with human societies committing to restoring biodiversity & natural habitats lost during the industrial age. In addition, global resource management will slowly prioritize sustainable consumption & long-term ecological health over short-term economic growth. Environmental education & stewardship will become central to societal values as humanity embraces its role as a caretaker of the Earth.

The first quarter century of the 22nd century will continue to see Population decline worldwide, albeit more subdued than the nosedives we will see throughout the mid to late 21st century, thanks to various World Wars, Pandemics, Natural Disasters, etc.72

The New Century will begin with far fewer material-energy resources than was available to Mankind at the dawn of the New Millenium & the 21st century.

Likewise, Industrial output will decline to pre-20th century levels, with Food & water resources likely declining back to mid-20th century levels.73

However, a far lower Population will also bring far less pollution worldwide, coupled with various niches opening up for those ready, willing & able to scavenge & eke together a sedentary, subsistence living amidst the Deindustrial Ruins.74

The communities that move into these newly freed lands may not initially focus on Environmental concerns, nor will they view Stewardship as their primary frame of reference. That said, these issues will gradually move to the forefront over Time.

This is because, as these Deindustrial Ruins are steadily mined, recycled & excavated for their many resources (especially metals & plastics), norms & expectations will have to be set for how best to do all that work *without* pricing & related mechanisms.75

However, the Malthusian economy of the Pre-industrial world won’t be ‘coming back.’

Mankind’s understanding of itself in the early 22nd century will have sharply departed from the naive Anthropocentric notions of that Dead Past. The Post-industrial world will incorporate more Biocentrism, albeit some ghosts of the past will remain:

‘True Believers’ of the by now disgraced, dead & buried Faustian West will continue to insist that some enormous, ‘yet to be found & tapped’ resource stash exists somewhere, & thus, incredible technological advancements are ‘just around the corner.’76

By now, however, their numbers have dwindled to irrelevance, along with the decline of their chief opponents, the sundry Catastrophists of our Present day, with some minor additions throughout the long 21st century & beyond.77

Both these groups, one believing in ‘Fast Collapse & Extinction,’ & the other believing in ‘An Unstoppable Ascent to Utopia,’ will be routinely mocked, ridiculed & ignored wholesale by the lion’s share of people, who are too busy with practical matters:

Most will be too busy tilling the soil & hoeing the veggies to care much for what such ‘True Believers’ from both extremes have to say. Occasionally, in between hard labour & their various communal obligations, some may lend these folks an ear.

In the meantime, they will work alongside family, friends, neighbours & their wider community to reorient themselves towards more cyclical modes of living that are true to Nature’s sundry Rhythms. Once again, such acclimation will be slow & gradual.78

Memories & Tales from the Old World & its many dogmas will continue to have a substantial impact, slowing down said acclimation process considerably.

Nevertheless, the New World will continue its Succession, & in the coming centuries, it will steadily overcome many such memetic deadweights of the Industrial Era.

XI. Gradual Technological Stabilization & Adaptation to Low-Energy Systems

Technological Stabilization & Adaptation to Low-Energy Systems: Transitioning to a Sustainable Technological Future- Between 2100 & 2125, transitioning to low-energy systems will be the hallmark of human technological stabilization. With traditional energy sources such as fossil fuels no longer viable due to depletion & environmental impact, society will shift to sustainable, decentralized energy models. The focus will be on local energy solutions- such as solar, wind, & biomass- integrated into everyday life through microgrids & energy-efficient technologies. Technological stabilization will involve optimizing existing infrastructure to reduce energy use rather than continuously pursuing new, high-energy solutions. Adaptive technologies like low-power computing, energy-efficient transport, & passive architecture will redefine how societies function, emphasizing maintaining ecological balance. Societies will focus on energy conservation & efficiency, with technologies designed to maximize output while minimizing resource consumption, ensuring a harmonious relationship between human needs & the environment.

The sundry, steady pursuits of Resource Equilibrium & Environmental Stewardship will gradually move communities worldwide to view Stability, Equilibrium, & Adaptation as relevant considerations as Growth, Progress, & Innovation gradually take a backseat.

Technological stabilization will be standard courtesy of Low-Energy Systems, the norm across the Deindustrial Wastes. The Maximum Power Principle, which took Faustian Man to Great Heights… will have utterly deracinated him by then.79

Microgrids will be the norm in many of these communities, especially those who choose the rural countryside instead of the rim of Moribund Megapolities.

Even the latter group of communities, who partake in the scavenging, recycling & extraction of metals from these locations, will eventually have to consider Persistent Pollution & its negative illths on their workforces.80

They may not shift to Low-Energy Systems by the early 22nd century, but as Pollutants in these Ruins continue to exact a heavy toll on them, some will slowly begin the long retreat back to the countryside & its promise of a more Arcadian lifestyle.

In the meantime, these Salvage Crews will seek Optimization of what Technologies they have access to in these Wastes, making do with what trace, low-quality Fossil Fuel remnants they come across with great care, rationing & conservatism.

Their rural counterparts, who have relocated to the countryside, will quickly discover that what awaits them is not the peaceful & tranquil Arcadia that many believed, but rather brutish, labour-intensive, old-fashioned, plain-ol’ Hard Work.81

In this New World, the importance of Domesticated Animals will once more become apparent as contraptions like tractors, diesel-powered trucks, etc., will be in short supply. Thus, there will be a newfound demand for draught horses & cattle.

Such demand won’t be filled immediately, as the relevant breeds for said animals don’t exist today at the appropriate numbers, nor will they likely exist in sufficient quantity by the early 22nd century for a considerably depreciated Human Population.82

These endeavours will require at least a few more generations to bear fruit (perhaps a few centuries!), owing to the long-time horizon for Selective Breeding, coupled with scarcities in convenient ‘High-tech’ solutions to speed up these processes considerably.

Population Decline will continue from the previous century, albeit at a significantly slower pace, thanks to a Lower Human Population exerting far less overall strain on Non-Renewable Natural Resources, yielding much less Persistent Pollution.83

As things unwind & people settle down (be it in rural hamlets, rims around Moribund Cities or anything in between), many will access unique opportunities that had hitherto been unavailable to most throughout most of the Industrial Era:84

Whole swathes of arable land across Eastern & Southern Europe will be emptied of their millennia-long peoples, societies & cultures thanks to Population Decline, motivating millions to migrate Northward from Africa, West Asia & beyond.

War & Migration are constants of Human History, but so is the concurrent Ethnogenesis. At the dawn of the 22nd century, we will again see this trifecta appear, as European peoples will gradually assimilate into Eurabia, Eurafrica & Eurosiberia.85

XII. Arcadianism, Ecosophy, Ecotechnics, Retrotopia & Bionomics

Arcadianism, Ecosophy, Ecotechnics, Retrotopia & Bionomics: Creating Sustainable, Self-Sufficient Communities for the Future- Between 2100 & 2125, the collapse of industrial capitalism will prompt a shift toward ecocentric societies governed by principles of Arcadianism, Ecosophy, & Bionomics. Communities will embrace Retrotopia--a vision of the future where Technology & Nature coexist in more harmony, & low-tech solutions become the foundation of daily life. Arcadianism will encourage a return to simpler living, with people reconnecting to the land & focusing on local sustainability through small-scale farming, ecological Restoration, & regenerative practices. Ecosophy will shape a worldview that sees human flourishing as intertwined with environmental health, guiding people away from destructive consumption & toward balance with the Earth. Ecotechnics will facilitate this transition by offering renewable energy technologies, permaculture systems, & natural architecture that work with, rather than against, natural systems. Finally, bionomics will redefine economic systems, ensuring that the health of ecosystems is prioritized above short-term financial gain. This new world will be grounded in a deep respect for the planet’s resources & cycles, creating societies where humanity & Nature coexist sustainably.

The Future will not be anything like what various novels, movies & plays of the Past & Present claim it will be. It will not be mired in Apocalypse & Cataclysm nor comprise Mankind’s continued, felicitous Ascent to the Infinite Starry Sky Above…

The Real Future, the one we all ‘will probably be getting,’ has been outlined in broad brushstrokes, given continued trends for Ecological Overshoot, Technological Stagnation, Energy Poverty, Material Shortages, & Demographic Winter.86

A few years ago, the Grandmaster of DOOM,

, penned his excellent essay The Twilight of Anthropolatry (2017), where he analyzes the failed Paradigm of worshipping Man as the measure of all things, sacred & profane.87

With the gradual Decline & Fall of said Paradigm, & its proverbial chucking into the dustbin of History… new pathways & avenues will open up worldwide that gradually re-orient Mankind towards more Realistic & Modest views of himself.88

Granted, 100 years is a very short amount of Time. 2125 compared to 2025 is nothing once Geological Time (i.e. ‘Deep Time’ ) becomes our primary lens.89

Many will still cling to the Old, disgraced Anthropolatry of the Present, with some who will seek to bring back the Anthropolatries of decades & centuries Past.

Yet ultimately, such ideas will get memetically weeded out in the Long Future, for the advantages they once accrued for various societies & Civilizations will have disappeared entirely. Instead, most such ideas will be outright Maladaptive Burdens.90

As these notions gradually crumble & disintegrate, what ideas will replace them? Five notions stand out, though many more will likely dawn over the rest of the millennium. Yet, it is these five that will their ascent something in the early 2100s:91

Arcadianism — Humanity is resilient & scrappy, capable of persisting on Planet Earth for several million years. Thus, we should adopt Deep Time as our primary lens & plan accordingly for the Long Future, for we will be here for a very Long Time! 😉

Ecosophy — Ecological harmony & equilibrium should be continuous with Mankind’s flourishing. Man’s ethical & spiritual values ought to thus adaptively fit & conform to the Natural World’s sundry Limits & Boundaries.

Ecotechnics — Technologies & Social designs should adopt Ecological principles, seeking Optimization with the Environment around them instead of Maximizing design traits, which often tend to generate significant Persistent Pollution.

Retrotopia — Technologies that are fit & adaptive to the flourishing & development of people should be Optimized. This means that both Old & New Techs should coexist in a Mixed Tech setting rather than always trying to ‘Progress & Build something New.’

& finally, Bionomics — Rather than Land, Labour, Capital, & Enterprise, which form the basis of Mainstream Economics, we should instead value Materials, Energy, Ecology, & Demography, the four pillars comprising the Biophysical Economy of Nature.

As these ideas gradually gain prominence in the early 22nd century, Industrial Society & The Faustian West will finally begin to give way to the New Millenia Long Dark Age…92

Conclusion: The Fall of The West

The Fall of The West: Cultural Erosion & the End of the Western Ideal- The Fall of The West will be an economic & political collapse & a profound cultural erosion. From 2100 to 2125, the identity that once defined Western civilization--rooted in ideals of individualism, consumerism, & technological progress--will unravel. Climate change & the destruction of the natural environment will challenge the Western conception of progress, leading to a cultural shift toward sustainability & a renewed focus on living in harmony with the environment. As the West’s power wanes, its cultural influence will diminish, replaced by new, emerging civilizations that prioritize ecological balance & social equity over the consumer-driven values that once characterized Western life. The end of Western dominance will give way to a multipolar world where more egalitarian, ecocentric living systems replace cultural narratives around material wealth & technological supremacy.

In Man & Technics (1931), the German Polymath Oswald Spengler observed that decay & oblivion are the Ultimate Destiny of all living organisms. As one who viewed Civilization as analogous to organisms, he concluded that Death is their Final End.93

However, he neither despaired nor was jubilant at said inevitable prospect for his own Civilization, namely the Faustian West. Instead, he urged a stoic forbearance & calm demeanour, especially for those Westerners honour-bound to the Faustian Legacy.94

The end of Industrial Society, ‘Progress’ & related notions are underway. However, this Spenglerian forbearance is nowhere to be found. Instead, what we see around the Industrial World, both the West (& non-West) are sundry forms of Copium:

For some, it’s simply a matter of ‘Looking Harder!’ for more resources in the Crust, on the seabed & elsewhere, with some arguing for Comet & Asteroid mining en masse.95

For others, Human ingenuity & Cleverness will eventually win the day, blowing away all these ‘Illusory Limits’ with effortless ease once the ‘god of Technology’ is properly unleashed & harnessed by men of Science & Technology without arbitrary barriers.96

& Finally, others think that with sufficient oversight in statecraft from national governments & international bodies (& their sundry cooperative arrangements), the requisite cultural & social shifts can be made in Time to avoid Ruin.97

Yet, precisely *None* of these three groups will amount to anything in the Future.

As discussed here (& in copious Footnotes! 😉😘), Westerners have run out of Time &/or the so-called ‘fixes’ themselves do not resolve things anyway.

Mere Insistence that ‘Everything will be OK!’ is utterly Moot, & likewise False. Even worse is insisting, like Tolkien & his students, that some miraculous Eucatastrophe will somehow ‘Save the Day!’ when all Hope is utterly lost for Faustian Man.98

The Collison course Spengler foresaw in Man & Technics (1931) nearly a century prior is now ‘baked in.’ The only thing of doubt is its exact Scale & Scope. But it will happen, & that the fated Total Defeat of Faustian Man draws near… is all but certain.

Spengler himself was well aware that we do not get to choose what Historical period we are born into… thereby meaning that it is not up to us whether we are born during a Civilization’s zenith or its Total Disintegration.99

Yet perhaps Spengler missed something in his Final Observation:

Maybe Faustian Man is already Dead. His corpse presently festers without a tomb, already forgotten by most Westerners whose Moribund form shambles on lifelessly like a Zombie & mouthing slogans that he is unaware of.

In the Final Analysis… perhaps the West has entered its Final Slumber, & most of us haven’t Noticed. Maybe Faustian Man has already passed away peacefully in his sleep, rather than getting cut down brutally by his sundry foes at a later date.

The Churches & the Cathedrals still tower up into the Starry Sky, yet scarcely a soul walks into them & even fewer genuinely ask their Lord for forgiveness.100

The DOOM Cometh…!

The DOOM Cometh: Climate Collapse, Resource Wars, & the Fall of Global Society- The DOOM is coming faster than we think. The unrelenting forces of climate collapse & resource wars are already tearing at the fabric of our global society. From severe droughts to unprecedented flooding, agricultural collapse makes food production increasingly difficult. Resource wars have erupted over water, energy, & arable land, pushing nations into violent confrontations. As political systems fracture & international diplomacy fails to address the growing crises, the world slides into chaos. Governments that once promised security & stability are unable to contain the rage of starving populations or the desperation of those fighting for survival. The DOOM is not a singular event--it is a series of escalating disasters that will redefine the world as we know it. The end of the industrial age is upon us, & humanity will be forced to confront the realities of a new, dangerous, & uncertain world.

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Footnotes:

While I had Smelted DOOM Wares before December 2023, it was only in a semi-regular fashion. There was a Time when Yours Truly thought of keeping all the DOOM, gloom & despair to myself… but Fate/Destiny was such that I decided to instead Toil away at the Furnace from said December onward till the present (& Inshallah, the future! 🥰) for all your DOOM-ful wants & needs. Thank You Again, Dear Readers & Listeners! 😉😘

You are in for a treat, Dear Readers & Listeners! 🥰

The DOOM levels on this piece are well over 9,000… that I can guarantee you! 😎

I won’t be eschewing a focus on the micro wholesale.

Instead, Dear Readers & Listeners, expect Yours Truly to use a longer timescale to analyze the coming decades’ main events & then put them in the context of larger Historical Cycles.

Many others exist on Substack & elsewhere who do this far better than myself. 😉

As for those who give you genuine, practical advice on ‘What to do when SHTF!’ you have the lovely & eminent Sir

Texas Arcane

’s Stack,

Vault-Co Communications

, which does just that:

What I mean by all this is simply the following:

Given present material scarcities, energy poverty, technological stagnation, ecological overshoot & demographic winter, it is simply a matter of time until they converge to one another to give rise to various fundamentally unsolvable predicaments.

Yes, governments, small communities, private enterprises, & individual patriarchs of families can take steps today & tomorrow to mitigate the worse excesses of the future.

Undoubtedly, many already do all these things, & many more will pick up relevant skillsets.

But they will not Solve these things, since such predicaments are ultimately Unsolvable.

The reason is that the Industrial society we live in requires enormous energy & material flows, coupled with growing populations & technological breakthroughs…

Which, in turn, require sufficient Ecological Biocapacity to undergird everything.

Just as one cannot ‘pull himself up by the bootstraps’ if he is sinking into quicksand, so too does Modern man find himself in a situation where he cannot Solve anything, since Ipso Facto it means cutting back on those things that make his Technological life possible.

& because such a thing is unthinkable to most & unfeasible (at scale & scope) for many, it will likely not happen, thereby DOOM-ing Modern man to a slow, gruelling, several-centuries-long decline & collapse from technological society to deindustrial society.

Here is an excellent primer summarizing all of these sundry points in audiovisual form:

In Hyperobjects: Philosophy and Ecology after the End of the World (2014), Morton notes:

“Hyperobjects show that the end of the world has already occurred in the sense that concepts such as world, nature, and even environment are no longer a meaningful horizon against which human events take place. Instead of inhabiting a world, we find ourselves inside a number of hyperobjects, such as climate, nuclear weapons, evolution, or relativity. Such objects put unbearable strains on our normal ways of reasoning.”

Many Thanks to Pater

Tree of Woe

for his Optimis… er, I mean *Sanguine*

, without which Your Friendly, Neighbourhood DOOM Merchant would not have had the necessary impetus for smelting these DOOM wares! 😘

Feel free, Dear Readers & Listeners, to continue this series annually if Yours Truly hits the bucket some years &/or decades later & I cannot continue! 🥰

Yours Truly examined all of these themes in this essay over here:

The End of History & What Happened After...

Ahnaf Ibn Qais

March 13, 2024

The End of History & What Happened After...

USA Imperial Arrogance, Global Dominance, Illuminated Power, Authoritative Outlook, Provocative, Confrontational.

Read full story

Pater

Tree of Woe

has written an excellent book on how the coming Fall of the Petrodollar will likely exacerbate this devolution into Total War. You can find it here on Amazon:

Running on Empty: How the Imminent Collapse of the Petrodollar System Sets the Stage for World War III

In early 2025, we have already seen this occur worldwide, a la the fallout from the Russo-Ukrainian war (February 2022 to the present) & then the West Asian crisis (October 2023 to present) kickstarted by the sundry ‘Israeli’ genocides in Palestine & Lebanon.

Yours Truly wrote a brief Narrative intro to Geo-Economics, which goes over such trends at greater length. The ‘developed’ world is in for a world of hurt in the coming decades:

Geo-Economics: A Brief, Narrative Introduction

Ahnaf Ibn Qais

February 28, 2024

Geo-Economics: A Brief, Narrative Introduction

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Fundamentally, one can accrue Materials, Energy, Ecological capacity, & Demography in one of three ways, which are as follows:

Trade & Commercial arrangements.
Kinetics- Outright war (on one end of the spectrum) & covert subterfuge (on the other).
A combination of (1) & (2)

The world of tomorrow will eschew (1) in favour of (2), with (3) likewise dwindling & tending more toward (2) by the century’s end as shortages & outages become commonplace.

The preliminary signs of this are the ramping up of hostilities between the Eurasian powers & the Atlanticist bloc. A US-China trade war is all but inevitable in 2025 & beyond, while Russian Gas & Iranian Oil & Gas to the Global North will probably be a thing of the past.

Bitcoin, Ethereum & related arrangements will have to contend with less energy & materials that can support their overall base of operations. In such a world, the ‘Scarcity Industrialism’ of the Eurasian heartland may keep things afloat for a while longer; however, there will be absolute declines in the ‘developed’ world & elsewhere, where decreasing amounts of energy & materials are diverted to more life-essential activities.

Here is the Population Pyramid for the African continent. Notice the lightly shaded area on the left-hand side, indicating surplus Male births & Male children.

Arthur Berman

has an excellent Energy blog covering all these sundry intricacies regarding Energy, Ecology & much more. You can find all his writings here:

https://www.artberman.com

Here is an excellent sitdown conducted by the wonderful Sir Nate Hagens with the Eminent Dr. Corey Bradshaw on how Biodiversity loss directly impacts Human Agriculture & related areas of activity. Insect Biomass, in particular, is critical to successful crop yields:

Here is an excellent resource which goes over said lack of preparation & ability in the context of Contemporary Europe & its sundry Demographic & Institutional Woes:

Here is the relevant chart for rapidly increasing Median Ages, as noted earlier:

Here is an excellent UnHerd essay on the Migration Crisis, & why Ethnic Conflict is here to stay, not just in Britain but in large parts of Europe thanks to Demographic Shifts:

How Britain ignored its Ethnic conflict: This year’s Riots won’t be the Last

Here is an excellent sit down by the wonderful Nate Hagens with the Eminent Jeremy Grantham on the shape such a paradox will likely take in the coming decades & beyond:

Simply put, people will be engaged in more important & productive activity, as opposed to daydreaming about nonsense that doesn’t build meaningful human relationships, doesn’t put food on the table & doesn’t make the wider community better overall.

In the first quarter-century of the 21st century, we have seen these trends play out considerably. Specifically, the ‘Transhumanist’ movement has all but become a fringe thing, its sundry optimisms now instead increasingly coloured by the reality of resource & energy shortfalls in various sectors. ‘True Believers’ do still remain. However, they form an increasingly narrow bandwidth in the broader public discourse.

BRICS is essentially a ‘Commodities Cartel’ whose objective is to seize greater control & leverage over global energy & material resources. It will play a key precursor role to these shifts, albeit it may not survive to mid-century & beyond, given Global Volatility.

Here is a Dictation / Read-Aloud by Yours Truly of Grandmaster of DOOM,

’s excellent essay How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse (2005) that goes at length examining such Anthropological Overshoot:

Faustian Man's Demise Will Be Catabolic

Ahnaf Ibn Qais

December 18, 2024

The End of Faustian Man: A Catabolic Collapse of Western Civilization- In the waning days of the Faustian spirit, the once unyielding drive for limitless progress, expansion, and domination is met with the brutal reality of catabolic collapse. This is not a sudden, cataclysmic end but a slow unravelling of Western civilization’s intricate systems. Once …

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Productive Enterprise requires profitable margins for EROI (i.e. Energy Return on Investment). During times of Contraction, state authorities are incapable of such a feat & smaller, decentralized & more informal groups instead are capable of said feat. Criminal enterprises are one such example, Fraternities are another, Religious communities are a third. The future will have many such entities ‘stepping up’ to take charge, as vacuums of Power & Influence open up across the West & non-Western worlds.

Here is an excellent resource, narrated by the Eminent Nate Hagens, which analyzes the Carbon Pulse, the Human Predicament & why the Great Simplification is inevitable:

Grandmaster of DOOM,

The Emerging Neomedieval Order

touches on how Energy Poverty & Materials Shortages will impact our descendants in this excellent interview here:

Here is an excellent primer on why the Peace of Westphalia almost singlehanded sculpted Modern notions of statecraft & why it is still relevant, even today:

The lovely Sir

Blue Vir

wrote an excellent essay on the shift from Centralized, State on State warfare to Neomedieval, Substate warfare involving criminals, warlords, terrorists, etc.:

Blue Vir's Writings

“In a real sense, maximum disorder was our equilibrium.” T.E. Lawrence…

5 months ago · 192 likes · 29 comments · Blue Vir

This understanding is simply a corollary of the Maximum Entropy Production Principle, which states that given multiple possible options, Exergy (i.e., ‘useful work potential’) will tend to choose the option that reduces the energy gradient the fastest.

Just like water choosing to go down the ‘path of least resistance’ energy (& by extension, materials! 😉) will tend to exhaust themselves as rapidly as they can, meaning that to run a Complex, dynamic system, one needs to always these inflows to account for said attrition.

Here are the population trends for the European peninsula, extended to 2100 per the UN Medium scenario. Note how precipitous the declines are for Eastern Europe, even though the UN Medium scenario assumes that mid-century & beyond, many of these places will take in migrants to supplement their rapidly imploding populations. Yet, even with that assumption, the numbers are abysmal & deep in the Red:

Grandmaster of DOOM,

, penned an excellent essay on what a Negative-Sum Economy looks like at his excellent, must-read blog Ecosophia.net:

The Negative-Sum Economy

Additional emphasis: No permanent peoples, societies, nations &/or Civilizations exist. To quote my co-host for Eurabiamania: When East Meets West, the Eminent Sir

Kenaz Filan

“You have a right to whatever land it is you can defend with a military & then upkeep with your government. & if you can’t, someone else will do it instead.”

A people who cannot pave their own roads & pick up their own garbage properly without incessant scapegoating of Muslims, Jews, Bankers, Migrants, etc., is already too far gone.

Moral Panics & Emotive outbursts of this sort, where the people are increasingly engrossed in banter that you find from headless chickens running around in mass panic…

That’s just a sign that they will soon be replaced en masse by people who can fight properly, have the requisite technical know-how to make basic repairs & do basic maintenance work. It’s harsh but ultimately a Universally Applicable maxim.

Grandmaster of DOOM,

The Modern World Can’t Exist Without These Four Ingredients. They All Require Fossil Fuels

, said it best a few months ago:

The relevant essay is this one by the Eminent Vaclav Smil, penned some years back:

The Russo-Ukrainian war, given this lens, makes perfect sense once we look at the distribution of chernozem soils according to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources:

Russia’s annexation of large chunks of Ukraine means garnering access to some of the world’s highest quality, most fertile soils, which are paramount for National governments to maintain food security as material & energy flows winnow evermore in the coming years.

At most, conventional, large scale agriculture has about half a century left, given current trends for Topsoil erosion overwhelming natural replenishment rates:

Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues: Generating three centimeters of top soil takes 1,000 years, and if current rates of degradation continue all of the world's top soil could be gone within 60 years, a senior UN official said

Regarding total renewable water resources, here is the relevant Global map:

& here are the top ten countries ranked by total renewable water resources:

Here is the relevant chart showing this decline for Japanese farmland:

Most welfare states in Europe, for instance, can only function so long as there exists an increasing number of young, working age adults at the bottom of the Population Pyramid who can continue to pay taxes, toil, etc., for the increasingly aging top of the Pyramid comprising seniors. Quantitatively, this means mass migration to garner more working age adults, while qualitatively it means increasing taxes & related burdens on said adults. Most Western nations employ a combination of both, with the emphasis on mass migration bringing with it one set of problems (cultural clash, lack of assimilation, etc.) while increasing said burdens bring with them another (emigration of said adults, etc.).

Both sets of problems ultimately coalesce to generate a nation which eventually sees mass flight of labour, coupled with ethnic conflict, which together will eventually implode these sundry welfare states from within, via losing the relevant capital, labour, etc. to continue maintaining the various goods & services consumed in the wider society by dependants. The Elderly dying en masse in Senior centres & Old homes is inevitable, so too are excess deaths from the sick, disabled, etc., not getting access to the relevant medical treatment. Infant mortality & childbearing deaths are also going to slowly tick up in the coming decades, as various societies lose the material & energy base to prevent these tragedies.

These societies have inverted population pyramids, meaning that any & all attempts at ‘Reindustrialization’ & ‘Remilitarization’ are dead on arrival. This is because population contraction yields pressures on the wider nation-state that make a standing military nearly impossible to maintain, as smaller sub-state structures are simply better suited to the Negative-Sum Dynamics of less energy & material flows in the deindustrial setting.

Below is a projection of what Europe’s Age dependency ratio will look like by century’s end, given the UN Medium scenario. A Peninsula that is over 80%+ comprising seniors & children cannot (& will not) ‘Fight Back’ even if it had unlimited willpower. This is because the physical ability, & actual Muscle for seniors & children to fight are atrophied & immature, respectively. It is far more likely that the majority will simply Surrender.

Fusion power is always ‘ten years away’ for some reason, while every new gimmick in the world of ‘Artificial Intelligence’ is going to ‘automate & put an end to all Human Drudgery’ in the coming decade… yet these talking points have been around for decades, with no signs of abating anytime soon. As the Grandmaster noted a while ago, there will probably exist such people even in the various slums & shantytowns that pop up across the world as the New Dark Age commences. With many of these individuals confidently asserting that any day now man will be ‘going back to the Moon’ & doing all performing all sorts of other related feats… even though there will be no arable land & suitable freshwater left around said slum.

Just because something doesn’t work at all, doesn’t mean that Human Beings won’t try it out anyway! 😉 That’s sort of ‘baked in the cake’ for the foreseeable future, given Faustian Man’s sundry obsessions with technologies like Fusion, AI & Interstellar Migration.

Here is an excellent primer primer on Bioregionalism which covers all the basics:

Bioregionalism: A Model for a Self-Sufficient and Democratic Economy

Here is a great primer on the Technics the Inuit have developed in the Tundra & beyond:

Inuit Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), Subsistence Hunting and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Canadian Arctic

This brief read on Permaculture is more than enough to acquaint the reader with the basics:

Introduction to Permaculture

Failure alone may not be sufficient for many. Suffering & Death might have to take shape afterward, in order for them to change their minds. Yet for many others still, Nothing at all will convince them that ‘Mankind’s destiny is to march from the Cave & into the Stars!’… even as said individual can barely get enough calories to stay alive in the Deindustrial night, as he struggles to put himself to sleep in the decaying Favela that he inhabits circa 2075.

Grandmaster of DOOM,

Overshoot: Why It's Already Too Late To Save Civilization

has noted that the ruins of the megacities we have built these past several decades, have enormous amounts of steel & other useful materials, all of which can be utilized by future generations via scavenge & retrofitting. Warfare in the Deindustrial Night will initially involve salvaging these ruins for the best resources (think junkyards & related places), until said materials are themselves consumed.

Afterward, people will have to make due with novel value chains that are non-salvage oriented, & thus will need a new sequence of primary inputs from the ground up. & so we go back once more to a world where agriculture & agrarianism plays key roles in the formation of Turchinian ‘Elites.’ But that will probably be toward the midpoint of this New Dark Age.

Humans overshot the Earth’s Biocapacity sometime in the early 1970s, with present day consumption of energy-material flows corresponding to nearly ~2 whole Earths overall:

All of this is beautifully covered by the lovely Sir

Alan Urban

in this Excellent essay:

Collapse Musings

I have some bad news. Civilization is going to collapse. Not in 1000 years, not in 100 years, but within the lifetimes of most people alive today…

2 years ago · 148 likes · Alan Urban

By 2050, the projected habitat loss for all species is going to reach over 5% globally, with Sub-Saharan African netting greater than a 12% loss, per the UN Medium scenario:

Here is a great primer on what the world looks like without said Honeybees & other Insects:

Here’s what that looks like on a chart:

Here is a helpful graphic on what that looks like till about 2050. Several scenarios are considered, with multiple projections courtesy of the sorts of changes people could still feasibly make to cropland practices in the coming few decades:

The tendency towards ‘Conspiracy-thinking’ is simply a natural consequence of this maxim.

If there are no genuine limits in Nature, & all one needs is some combination of knowledge, values &/or will, the only genuine obstacle left to ‘Man’s Conquest of the Stars’ is the malice, fickleness &/or stupidity of ‘The Other.’ The rest, therefore, is rather predictable:

So long as ‘The Other’ can be successfully subsumed, nothing will be stopping Faustian Man from doing what he wishes to. The tendency in politics & social affairs to scapegoat others is thus, just a consequence of this hardwired ‘instinct’ expressing itself in a myriad of ways.

If this sounds far-fetched to you, Dear Listeners & Readers:

Please remember that Dark Ages are often feudal to quasi-feudal. In these sorts of Zero to Negative-Sum Systems, transactions between two or more parties get you a pie that is stagnant to shrinking. Dark Age Rome, for instance, had little to no minting & coinage:

In this world where wealth has a general tendency to decrease overtime, while illth’s general tendency is to accrue & increase… the value of land, food, etc., is much higher as subsistence, steady-state lifestyles make a steady comeback worldwide.

The relevant quote is this one, courtesy of the American Economist, Robert L. Heilbroner:

“The answer is that Smith saw the all-important division of labor as a once-for-all, not a continuing, process. As has been recently pointed out, he did not see the organizational and technological core of the division of labor as a self-generating process of change, but as a discrete advance that would impart its stimulus and then disappear. Thus, in the very long run the growth momentum of society would come to a halt—Smith once mentions two hundred years as the longest period over which a society could hope to flourish. Thereafter the laborer would return to his subsistence wages, the capitalist to the modest profits of a stable market, and the landlord alone might enjoy a somewhat higher income as food production remained at the levels required by a larger, although no longer growing, population. For all its optimistic boldness, Smith’s vision is bounded, careful, sober—for the long run, even sobering.”
~ Robert L. Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers 7th ed. (1999), Chapter III. The Wonderful World of Adam Smith

The Grandmaster of DOOM,

Problems Have Solutions, while Predicaments Have Terms of Surrender.

, noted several years ago (paraphrased) that:

“Even as entire swathes of America live without running water, electricity & other amenities sometime in the late 21st century & beyond, & even as many of them use hand pumps to pump out water & use scavenged steel to do most of their metalwork… even then, many of them will confidently declare that any day now, we will be returning back to the Moon & these hard times & perils will all soon end, & the good times will once again return!”

Essentially, the absurdity of most people & their strongly held convictions vs actual lived reality are rarely something that can be analyzed & critiqued, save for by outsiders. 😉

To clarify:

I am not saying capitalism will disappear entirely. Yes, there will be those ‘True believers’ who sincerely believe that ‘anyday now… all these temporary problems will go away, & people will once again interact with one another as buyers & sellers in the market!’ Once again: Just because something is false & has been utterly disgraced… doesn’t mean that people won’t try it! 😉

These people will no doubt try to revive these old, dead forms. They will however fail… & yet they will continue trying for the next several centuries or so, courtesy of their yearnings.

Yours Truly has a cultivated a Skepticism towards ‘the goodness inherent to people’ over the years, & I am under no illusions that the demise of the Old World will magically be replaced by people who are ‘More Moral & More Wise.’ The Real World doesn’t work that way! 😉

Here’s an excellent panel discussion on the trouble with today’s so-called ‘Environmental Movement’ & its unwillingness to view the world outside an Anthropocentric framing, thereby DOOM-ing most efforts at conservation & stewardship:

Yours Truly has some ideas on what some of said Civilizations will likely look like, but those are just educated guesses, coupled with observing some of the trends from the past & present, & extending them to the future. That said, for this essay, said notions fall well outside the scope of the material we cover, so I will leave those for a later date! 😎

Additional emphasis: As has been noted previously, Negative-Sum Dynamics mean that when two or more parties transact, the overall wealth decreases while the overall illth increases for all parties involved. The crutch of worshipping Money, markets & Human cleverness won’t be getting one out of said fundamental predicament, since what matters most in this New World is Resilience in the face of the overall decay & degradation around you. This is because none of said things *fundamentally* shift said decline, & are simply instruments that work best during times of plenty, growth & overall flourishing.

Yours Truly recorded a spirited 15-minute rant to outline why not everything in life is a ‘Problem that can be Solved’ by Cleverness & its corollaries.

Rather, there are many instances in which what you run into, Dear Readers & Listeners, are Predicaments without any genuine solutions of any sort:

The Fall of The West

The Limits of Technological Salvation: Why No Breakthrough Will ‘Solve’ Overshoot- Many still believe technological progress will provide a silver bullet for our ecological & resource crises. However, history shows that complex societies collapse precisely because they refuse to accept natural limits. The predicament of industrial civilization is not on…

Listen now

4 months ago · 4 likes · 2 comments · Ahnaf Ibn Qais

After all, how can one confidently declare himself to be a Believer with one breath & slip of tongue while then immediately using another breath & another slip of tongue to argue for Consumerism, the Extraction Economy, & all of its various cancerous corollaries?

As Grandmaster of DOOM,

Eurabia and Eurafrica Are Europe’s Future

succinctly noted long ago (paraphrased):

“You either learn to till the soil & hoe the veggies, or you die!”

Here is the relevant chart from 2015 with the requisite data:

Man & his domesticated creatures today make up the majority of Earth’s biomass in several key categories. There simply isn’t much excess or surplus left in terms of overall land to occupy, meaning that much of our Niche… is already occupied or soon will be.

Here are some relevant Environmental Impacts from Food & Agriculture:

While playing around with various Demographic models, Yours Truly came to a ballpark estimate of just over 3+ billion, once you factor in wars, famines, diseases, etc., in tandem with the sundry natural Demographic trendlines such as migration, births, etc.

In the various Limits to Growth models developed by Donella Meadows et al., a key finding was that Population decline tends to gradually decrease Negative-Sum Dynamics such as Pollution, given the lower pressures exerted on Earth’s Biocapacity & life-giving systems.

Food & Water resources require enough Biocapacity to replenish slowly, & said Biocapacity is presently being consumed rapidly without sufficient recovery. Attached below is a relevant graphic outlining habitat loss courtesy of expanding Croplands worldwide:

Excess mortality from High Pollution is a feature, not a bug of the Industrial world. With a declining population, some amelioration will take place in select parts of the world, allowing for small communities to once more begin to raise families without said illths.

The reason? Negative-Sum Dynamics & the lack of minting & coinage, for all the reasons we have so far noted. Humans will thus, have to organize Socioeconomic activity using non-monetary means, bringing together a mix of old, more archaic notions, coupled with more present-day concepts from Ecology & related fields. Inevitably, this will mean some form of mixed framework that resembles the Malthusian economy of old in many ways (i.e. barter, gift economies, etc.) but in other ways it will depart sharply from said older modes, courtesy of a more Biocentric lens, as opposed to a strictly Anthropocentric one.

Quite a few of them will be living in Slums, Favelas & Shantytowns, as noted in an earlier Footnote… yet that won’t really stop said ‘True Believers’ from loudly insisting (till the day they die of some nowadays preventable disease) that Space, AI & Fusion are ‘a decade away!’

These are the folks who insist loudly that ‘The End is Nigh!’ in some brutal Apocalypse that tends to often be man-made, with a minority arguing that something akin to an Asteroid may also play an important role in wiping us off the face of Planet Earth.

Chief among them is the group which insists that Nuclear War means Human Extinction, even though such a thing would nevertheless mean many billions of survivors elsewhere.

Written history is at most ~6,000 years old, with Prehistory for Homo Sapiens extending as far back as ~500,000 years. This means that for most of the time we have been on Planet Earth, we were neither Industrial, nor Civilizational, nor even Agrarian.

Rather, we were Hunter Gatherers who saw the Natural World around us & its sundry Biorhythms as not just merely important, but entirely Indispensable to our entire way of life, wholly determining things like Migratory flows, Satiation, etc. Relevant:

Also known as Lotka’s Principle, & named after the Polish-American Mathematician Alfred J. Lotka, the principle states the following, per American Ecologist Howard T. Odum:

“During self-organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.”

One of the most important findings by Meadows et al. in The Limits to Growth (1972) was to note that beyond the Standard World model of ‘Business As Usual’ (i.e., BAU), any variant where Non-Renewable Natural Resources (i.e. NRNRs) are given a multiplier of 2x or more…

…such scenarios still yield Collapses in Population, Industrial Output & Food Production, in tandem with increases in Persistent Pollution, as NRNRs are consumed in an S-curve.

However, the collapse in these BAU-variants (i.e. where the multiplier is 2x or greater) occurs not due to Resource Depletion, but rather due to Persistent Pollution:

BAU-2 is on the top right-hand side, & it assumes that Double the Volume of NRNRs exist on the Planet, compared to the standard BAU scenario. The Steep fall in Population, Industrial Output & Food is courtesy of the Exponential increase of Pollution, which in this scenario plays the Spoiler & the impetus for sundry Negative Feedback Loops that basically crater the Human Population back down to 1950 levels by the end of the 21st century.

This Basic Maxim upsets a lot of people, especially the various shades of Technophiles who refuse to Toil, forgetting what Scriptures like The Holy Bible (in Genesis 3:19) note:

“By the sweat of your brow you will eat your food until you return to the ground, since from it you were taken; for dust you are and to dust you will return.”

You would think, Dear Readers & Listeners, that Universal Truths such as these are just ‘Intuitively True’ for most… but nope! 😅 Apparently, there are those out there who think you can do a ‘Job’ where nothing productive, tangible, etc is built or done… & just ‘get away with it’ indefinitely as a wider society (*cough* Every so-called ‘Service Sector oriented’ Western society! 😅 *cough*). That said, these illusions can only persist for so long! 😉😘

Last I checked, a mere few thousand draught horses exist worldwide today. As for cattle, meat & dairy production are the primary drivers for Animal Husbandry today, with a lot fewer resources & care going into breeding load-bearing cattle. No doubt, these trends will gradually from now (i.e., 2025) till the early 22nd century (i.e., 2100-2125), however it won’t come willingly for many people worldwide who will refuse to make such sacrifices in their diet & nutrition… all so that load-bearing specimen can once more bred en masse. Most likely scenario: There will be a gradual deterioration of norms & standards for what constitutes a satiating diet & with it, as nutritional expectations shift, people will gradually consume less meat & animal products, so that said selective breeding can take place.

Sometimes, people are upset by this sentence less so for the Truthfulness of it (& it is True, Dear Readers & Listeners! 😉😘), but more so for what its Implications are:

Thinkers like Ehrlich, for instance, would pounce on said sentence & declare it simply one more in a whole litany of verse which decisively shows that ‘Human Beings are a Cancer’ on the planet, nonhuman life, life-giving systems & all sorts of other Natural Wonders.

Yet, that is not really a fair Implication since all that the sentence really highlights is the dominant Heights to which Homo Sapiens has come to dominate nearly all of Earth’s Biomes. It is for that reason that our collective actions have these large impacts, not out of any defect of our own. Had Hummingbirds, Dolphins, etc exercised such Power & Influence (albeit fleeting given its self-terminating nature) over Earth’s sundry ecosystems, they too would have come to this same ‘Finale’ where God Almighty’s Creation (‘Nature’ if you are not religious 😊) ultimately wins out via enforcing its sundry Negative Feedback Loops.

A notable opportunity that will also become available (in addition to emptied out arable land & freshwater sources motivating Mass Climate Migrations) will be the ‘Nomadic life.’

When the Russian Empire tamed the Steppes with artillery, muskets & other related ‘High-tech’ means, the Steppe Nomads gradually retreated until they were entirely subsumed by Industrial society. What we will see by mid-Millenia & beyond is likely a resurgence of this long dormant, seemingly ‘Lost’ way of life… as increasingly Deindustrial modes of living become fat, juicy targets for warlords & warbands on repurposed pick-up trucks & other sorts of contraptions that will by then litter the sundry junkyards & Urban Ruins, globally.

That tale however, is for another time, as we are only looking ahead a century over here! 😊

Yours Truly penned this essay for the lovely

Arktos Journal

where I touch on this coming Ethnogenesis in greater detail. Enjoy, Dear Readers & Listeners! 😊

Arktos Journal

Ahnaf Ibn Qais argues that the European peninsula is rapidly bifurcating into novel cultural and civilizational poles, with the nascent Eurafrica and Eurabia pair taking shape in western and southern Europe, thanks to the brute forces of demographic transition and mass migration…

6 months ago · 17 likes · 13 comments · Ahnaf Ibn Qais

I cannot definitively rule out some miraculous ‘Hail Mary Pass’ since an airtight, logically deductive argument doesn’t exist to do so. What I can do is say that Human action at the level of national governments & international organizations will likely do nothing to stop this runaway train of Catabolic Collapse. It is up to each individual, each family patriarch, each community & each neighbourhood to learn the requisite skills & know how, make the requisite networks & connections & steel themselves for what is to come… namely, several decades & centuries of Decline & Fall, comprising sundry rolling Ecological & other crises.

The essay masterfully analyzes all the ways in which Mankind has deified himself in the Industrial Age, thanks to the Scientific Worldview & its framing of everything as ultimately reducible to sets of ‘Problems’ that can eventually be ‘Solved’ given sufficient knowledge, values &/or willpower. This exceptionally arrogant view is quite rare for our species, which as the Grandmaster correctly notes, is a blip in Human History (& Prehistory! 😉😘)… the lion’s share of which involved Homo Sapiens viewing itself not as separate from Nature & in charge of ‘Solving’ it, but rather an Integral part of all things & subject to its Laws.

For many of us, this meant seeing the Supreme Lawgiver & His Grand Design… yet for others it meant viewing Nature as such to be Divine. The common point, however, was to recognize that Man alone is frail & with defect, & he can only succeed so long as the Transcendent & the Divine Himself Willed that it be so. Anyhow, read the entire essay when you can, Dear Readers & Listeners! 😊

People often love to say ‘We can’t go back, we shouldn’t go back & we won’t be going back!’

Yet, the trouble with this assertion is that the Present Moment we live in is already overstretched to the point of Implosion. The majority of the so-called ‘Developed World’ can no longer maintain & upkeep already existent Infrastructure & Public Works.

In every society, Material-Energy flows are necessary not just for New Construction & Expansion, but for basic maintenance of the sort we touched on earlier.

So, if you cannot even maintain that Present Moment, & lack the Surpluses in Material-Energy flows for Expansion, Ipso Facto you will see your wider society Simplify its various modes & opt for less Complex Infrastructure, social modes, etc.

In that sense, ‘Forward, no matter what! Progress’… that Paradigm is DOOM-ed to fail.

At the same time, however, what I have described is less a ‘going back’ & more a Generalized Simplification that all societies pursue once they Overshoot their Material-Energy base.

Here is an excellent primer by the Joseph Tainter explaining how this comes about:

Here is an excellent primer on why ‘Deep Time’ is wholly unintuitive to the Human Mind:

A quick, intuitive example ought to suffice here:

‘Man is the measure of all things!’ — this maxim becomes a burden if you live in a Slum & are wholly dependant on clement weather & related bounties of the Natural World around you.

Rather than psychologically burdening yourself as being some ‘failure who never amounted to anything due to lacking willpower, knowledge &/or values! 😡’… it is far more adaptive to view these dismal circumstances around you in a more Fatalistic manner, incorporating notions like Destiny, Fate & Predetermination, rather than ‘Man’s infinite ability to Solve Every Issue!’

The reason being that they are conjunct with one another & so if communities & individuals gradually adopt one or more of these philosophies & worldviews, the other three or four become far more intuitive, thus making them more likely to also be adopted. 😊

No need to worry, Dear Readers & Listeners! 😊

Dark Ages are just a regular Winter-cycle for Mankind. Eventually, a New Spring-cycle will commence (Yours Truly thinks by Millenia’s End) that will give rise to New primitive cultures, which in turn will eventually become New high cultures & then they will become…

New Civilizations! 😊

The relevant quote from Man & Technics (1931) is this one:

“Man was, and is, too shallow and cowardly to endure the fact of the mortality of everything living. He wraps it up in rose-coloured progress-optimism, he heaps upon it the flowers of literature, he crawls behind the shelter of ideals so as not to see anything. But impermanence, the birth and the passing, is the form of all that is actual -- from the stars, whose destiny is for us incalculable, right down to the ephemeral concourses on our planet. The life of the individual -- whether this be animal or plant or man -- is as perishable as that of peoples of Cultures. Every creation is foredoomed to decay, every thought, every discovery, every deed to oblivion. Here, there, and everywhere we are sensible of grandly fated courses of history that have vanished. Ruins of the "have-been" works of dead Cultures lie all about us. The hybris of Prometheus, who thrust his hand into the heavens in order to make the divine powers subject to man, carries with it his fall. What, then, becomes of the chatter about "undying achievements"?”

Once again, the relevant quote from Man & Technics (1931) is this one:

“We are born into this time and must bravely follow the path to the destined end. There is no other way. Our duty is to hold on to the lost position, without hope, without rescue, like that Roman soldier whose bones were found in front of a door in Pompeii, who, during the eruption of Vesuvius, died at his post because they forgot to relieve him. That is greatness. That is what it means to be a thoroughbred. The honorable end is the one thing that can not be taken from a man.”

In Footnote #80, we covered why BAU-variants that have 2x or greater Non-Renewable Natural Resources (i.e. NRNRs) on Planet Earth compared to the Standard Run… Collapse not due to Resource Depletion, but instead fall apart due to exponential increases in Persistent Pollution. This will apply even in the case of us waving a Magic Wand & teleporting ‘Extraterrestrial’ metals, minerals, etc., onto the Earth’s surface for use. ‘Lack of Abundance’ is not the limiter in this case, so this proposal doesn’t work.

We did not go over The Limits to Growth’s ‘Comprehensive Technology’ (i.e., CT) scenario yet, so let’s briefly go over it here. Here is the relevant visual for consideration:

Technological improvements, Ephemeralization & Mass adoption leads to a stabilization in Population sometime in the 2050s & beyond. With diminishing resources coupled with said improvements in Technology, Persistent Pollution peaks sometime in the mid 21st century as well. Food Production, which dips down in the 2020s to 2030s, starts to pick back up after the 2050s to 2060s, thanks to said less Pollution. However, Industrial Output peaks sometime pre-2050s & then dips down considerably, ending the 21st century at levels seen around the early 2000s. Overall, ‘Technology alone’ being unleashed as ‘Mankind’s Saviour & Liberator’ doesn’t prevent the loss of an Industrial lifestyle, thanks to rising Marginal costs.

The ‘Stable World’ (i.e., SW) scenario for the Limits to Growth is what this final group lean towards, & what we will briefly examine. Here is the relevant visual for consideration:

Population plateaus, along with Industrial output. The former plateaus sometime mid 21st century, while the latter does so sometime early 21st century. Pollution peaks a bit prior to the 2050s & then declines, & Food production takes a small dip in the 2020s to 2030s, only to then recover & finish off the century with a Plateau as well.

All this is accomplished with resources diminishing at around roughly the same rate as the CT & BAU-2 scenarios. The trouble here has less to do with what the visual is showing (& it is showing very impressive results, considering the failures of the prior three models to reach stability), but rather it has more to do with what it is *not* showing.

To generate the SW scenario, Meadows et al. notes that the next 5-6 decades would need enormous social, cultural & political reforms such as mandatory Family Planning, caps on most forms of Resource Extraction, extensive Pollution control measures, etc….

…all of that was noted in the early 1970s, over five decades ago. In other words, ‘The Ship has already Sailed’ on that front. Most of these things, Dear Readers & Listeners, did not happen & likely will not happen soon. What that means is that we are in a ‘Business As Usual’ (i.e., BAU) scenario de facto, as opposed to an SW one… since we chose to not pursue it.

Here is The Second Council of Wizards hosted by Sir

Kenaz Filan

& Yours Truly, & joined by the Eminent Sir Malcom Kyeyune & Grandmaster of DOOM,