The Fall of The West

The 21st century began with the ignoble end to the Pax Americana, thanks to the 9/11 attacks & the ensuing ‘Global War on Terror.’ These events helped to precipitate a decisive end to Fukuyama’s vision of ‘The End of History & the Last Man.’9

Since then, tensions have ratcheted up slowly & steadily between the United States & its vassals (on the one hand) & the Eurasian powers (i.e., China, Russia, Iran & friends) on the other hand. The world today is, thus, rapidly bifurcating into competing blocs.

In the coming quarter-century, circa 2025—2050, these simmering tensions will escalate & spill over into open hostilities as World Wars make their ignoble return.10

World War III, which (as of this writing) is either ongoing presently or will soon go fully kinetic, will be the first of a long line of said conflicts, as the collapse of Global Systems gets exacerbated by rapid Geopolitical & Geo-economic Earthquakes.

Global Supply Chains & Trade Networks that are vital to the daily functioning of small businesses, consumptive behaviour & generic confidence will buckle as regional conflicts turn into more significant wars, which will then turn into Global Conflicts.11

Borders & Maps will get redrawn as the victors of these sundry Conflicts build novel security architectures. These architectures will, in turn, mean the dissolution of the interconnected & Globalized economy of today & its sundry derivatives:

‘Just in Time’ Supply Chains connecting China, Russia, Iran, etc., to the Global North will shatter, with the surplus consumables & commodities in said arrangements getting consumed more & more by citizens inhabiting the Eurasian bloc.

We’ll see the definitive end to the ignoble ‘Wealth Pump’ of the Eurodollar system, whereby the lion’s share of inflation & other Economic maladies from the Western world get offloaded onto the Global South in exchange for said tangible goods.12

As Global Supply Chains & Trade Networks simplify, Spheres of Influence will pop up, involving the Great Powers in their respective Spheres, keeping more & more of their surplus commodities & consumables to themselves for future use.

We’ll then see Economic Isolationism, Trade barriers & other related arrangements, all of which will, in turn, exacerbate Global Armed Conflict as commerce & peaceful exchange wither away & kinetic force gains prominence once more.13

Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations & related entities & pursuits will wither due to localism & regionalism playing more outsized roles worldwide. Eventually, such decay will result in the breakdown of global economic relations.14

Technophilic solutions focusing primarily on novel financial architectures to improve trading relations between peoples & nations will likewise wither as energy, demographic & resource constraints make such arrangements increasingly scarce.

The world of tomorrow will have fewer tokens, cryptocurrencies & whatnot, with more barter, local exchange, etc. Certainly, crypto & related pursuits may thrive in select parts of the world for a Time, but material realities will ultimately limit this.15

Thus, all these Bifurcations will decisively end this brief era of Global Interconnectivity, which we have all enjoyed.

II. Social Dissolution, Autocracy & The End of the Liberal Democratic Order

Social Dissolution & Authoritarianism: The Collapse of Democracy in the Face of Crisis- In times of social dissolution, democracy & pluralism falter, authoritarianism becomes an attractive alternative for societies in crisis. From 2025 to 2050, rising inequality, economic collapse, & climate-induced disasters will accelerate the breakdown of social cohesion, leading to the disillusionment of large swaths of the population with the democratic process. As traditional political institutions struggle to adapt, authoritarian leaders will leverage fears of chaos & disorder to seize control, promising to restore national unity & economic stability. Increased surveillance, restricted freedoms, & the consolidation of power in the hands of a few will mark this shift toward authoritarianism. The social contract will dissolve as people prioritize security & order, sacrificing fundamental democratic values & freedoms. The rise of authoritarianism signals the end of the post-World War II democratic order, now replaced by more autocratic & populist forms of governance.

The integrity of whole nations will crumble in the coming quarter-century & beyond.

Democracy & Democratic institutions, writ large, are already buckling under pressure from the ‘perfect storm’ brought about via Mass Migration, Peak Cheap Oil, & Agricultural failures, as said trio will exacerbate a whole host of future calamities:

Crop failures in large parts of the Global South will exacerbate enormous tidal waves of Mass Migration. Many of these societies already have male surpluses, meaning that said waves will comprise primarily men ages 20 to 40.16

Peak Cheap Oil for most developed nations, meanwhile, has already been hit. For the global per capita number, we reached it in 1971 & for conventional sources, it was in 2005. Shale & non-conventional sources are about to peak.17

For said non-conventional sources, all indications are that the timeframe is at most 1-2 decades in the future, which (as of this writing) means 2045 at the latest.

Finally, Agricultural Failures brought about via Climate Change, Topsoil Depletion, & Biomass reduction will cement in Young Men across Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia & elsewhere the resolve to migrate to ‘Greener Pastures.’18

All these will converge onto one another to create Gargantuan Migration waves, making Jean Raspail’s The Camp of The Saints (1973) look like a Summer Picnic as legions of Asiatic & African men begin moving toward the Global North en masse.

These events will mean the ungluing of Democratic institutions & governments as the sundry Western nations try to cope with World Historical Migration waves & Demographic Shifts for which they will lack adequate preparation.19

The Median Ages for most European nations have passed into the 40s, with the likes of Italy & Germany already well into the late 40s. Such trends mean inadequate men for the armed forces, police & other critical institutions during said timeframe.20

Economic implosion brought about via the suppression of wages thanks to Mass Migration will mean the rise of Populism in tandem with pro-Autocratic sentiments across Europe & the wider West. Pluralism, meanwhile, will rapidly hollow out:

The breakdown of social cohesion brought about via Mass Migratory waves will enable sundry governments to crack down with more brutality on their citizenry as Police States & Censorship become the norm in the developed world.21

These trends will, in turn, lead to emigration waves of young working professionals (white, black & brown) as Social Dissolution & Disillusionment with the unravelling of the Social Contract & Traditional Political Institutions become a permanent fixture.

Authoritarian leaders will leverage these downward trends, stoking fears, vitriol & scapegoating to make empty promises of national renewal & economic stability. Instead, such figures will pursue greater control over things & consolidate power.

By mid-century, as natural births decline, young working men will be forbidden from leaving their respective nations. Simultaneously, various countries, now suffering mass labour shortages, will court foreign men en masse.

This paradox (i.e. Mass Migration alongside Labour shortages) will kill the Westphalian nation-state in Europe & beyond, with newer models taking their place.22

III. Technological Regression & The Localization of Economic Activity

Technological Regression & Localization: Adapting to a Post-Industrial World- The collapse of industrial civilization will lead to a tech regression that forces societies to rely on older, simpler technologies as complex systems disintegrate. By 2050, as resource depletion & environmental collapse devastate the global economy, nations will shift from centralized, tech-dependent models to localized & resilient communities. The overreliance on high-tech solutions--from automation to artificial intelligence--will falter as energy crises & supply chain disruptions make these systems unsustainable. In the aftermath, people will turn to localized economies, relying on renewable resources, low-tech agriculture, & community-driven solutions to meet their needs. The regression of Technology will be a painful but necessary shift towards a more straightforward way of life, where tools, infrastructure, & social organization get scaled down to more manageable levels that can endure the challenges of a post-industrial world.

Deindustrialization across Europe in the coming quarter-century will mean Technological Stagnation & Regression across the wider Western world & beyond.

The ‘Monofuture,’ comprising Fusion Power, Artificial Intelligence, & Interstellar Migration, will suffer a mortal blow from which it won’t recover. Some ‘True Believers’ will remain, but most ordinary people will eschew said ideas entirely in the future.23

As the daily lives of people across the West (& non-West) become more brutal, with groceries & bare essentials becoming nigh impossible to garner, all ideas, hopes, dreams, & copes about a ‘wonderful future’ will steadily get displaced.24

Governments will not admit it openly (nor should one expect them to!). Still, in their daily actions & policy proposals, there will be an increased emphasis on Autarky, self-reliance & related notions, especially as times go from bad to worse.

The ‘Rightward Shift’ will occur slowly & steadily first, & then it will speed up considerably mid-century & beyond, as Governments treat their leftover energy & material resources like individuals treat their money.25

Such trends will mean that Value Chains will Simplify, & Local Economies will regress & utilize more appropriate technologies more conducive to the New, low-energy, materials-scarce environment. Said changes will occur in a ‘bottom-up’ fashion:

The State Apparatus of the developed nations will be hard-pressed to provide essential services like electricity, running water, waste disposal, etc., as maintenance & upkeep costs will back-break said Governments, making them Impotent.26

Local warlords, sub-state actors, criminals, etc., will steadily step in & provide said services & goods instead as order & governance break down. Initially, this will be in the frontier & borderlands, & slowly, it will work back into the dense urban centres.

Meanwhile, Human Capital outflows (a la the Emigration waves noted earlier) will run in tandem with general erosion & spoilage of Critical Infrastructure. As things break down further, scavenging & looting will become the norm in most nations.27

What remains of State & Government resources will be allocated to put a lid on these activities, which will further overstretch these institutions. As these entities steadily fall apart due to said overreach, their successors will begin to step up to the plate.

Technology, which is inherently bounded & endogenous to surpluses in Materials, Energy, Ecology, & Demography, will inevitably simplify as new, more nimble, local & decentralized regimes take the levers of Power & Influence from nation-states.

A quarter-century from now, such regimes will have to contend with a Deindustrial Economy bereft of the inordinate quantities of Fossil Fuels we consume today.

They will be living on the downward slope of a Fossil-Fueled Carbon Pulse that, for the past nearly three centuries, has enabled Faustian Man to run an Industrial Society that would have appeared to our ancestors to be indistinguishable from magic.28

They & their descendants, as well as future societies, will not have access to such things. Ipso facto, they will use technologies & social arrangements that are more appropriate for sundry occasions, with lower Energy & Material footprints.29

IV. Political Fragmentation & The Simplification of Global Statecraft

Political Fissures & the Rise of Localized Governance- Between 2050 & 2075, the world will witness the deepening of political fissures as global systems collapse under resource depletion, climate change, & social instability. As nation-states struggle to address these challenges, political simplification will take root, with increasing numbers of regions & localities seeking autonomy or independence from weakened central governments. The rise of localized governance will be driven by a desire for greater self-sufficiency & control over limited resources as large-scale governance structures fail to meet the needs of increasingly fragmented societies. Local communities will adopt decentralized models, prioritizing immediate survival & resource management over global cooperation. Traditional forms of democratic governance will give way to smaller, more autonomous systems, whether in regional alliances or direct action councils. This period will mark the end of the age of global institutions & the beginning of an era where the most resilient societies will be those that can simplify governance & focus on localized, sustainable solutions.

The Westphalian system will slowly disintegrate in the coming 3-5 decades.

For over three centuries, national sovereignty & territorial integrity have been the Gold Standards of Domestic Policy & International Relations. This has been true since at least the Peace of Westphalia, when ‘Cuius Regio, Eius Religio’ was formalized.30

That Time is now over, & it won’t be coming back anytime soon.

Once curtailed decisively by the nation-state’s sundry advantages in industrial production, demography, etc., substate actors are once more rapidly gaining ground & are reaching levels of prominence & influence not seen since the Middle Ages.31

As Criminals, warlords, terrorists & guerrillas reach ever-increasing parity against their State foes due to cheaper marginal costs, lower technical barriers of entry, etc., the nation-state must fight such foes whilst also preserving what already exists:

Roads need to be maintained, bridges need to be built & trash needs to continue being picked up… all while said foes close in from all directions with every increasing zeal.

Complex dynamic systems of the sort built & maintained in this manner require ever-increasing inflows of energy, materials & demography, coupled with the requisite Ecological Biocapacity necessary to make these inflows possible to begin with.32

Eastern European nations, such as Bulgaria & Romania, are already seeing mass outflows in their young population. Bulgaria, which peaked at 8.9 million people in 1989, today has just over 6.7 million people & is rapidly falling apart.33

Mid-century & beyond, statecraft in these societies will have to deal with endemic corruption, nepotism, crumbling infrastructure, non-existent industry & enormous amounts of graft & corruption, all thanks to aging & population contraction.

This will mean simplifying the state apparatus & wider culture to cope with an increasingly Negative-Sum world, in which transactions between two or more parties suggest that the total size of the Pie decreases at the end of said interaction.34

In this world, politics will slowly devolve back down to the local level since the state apparatus & bureaucracy needed to delegate from the top down will erode too much to be helpful, especially for those at the top who love to skim for benefits.

This ‘abandonment of duty’ by sundry fat cats is already happening in large chunks of Eastern Europe & elsewhere, where the local crime boss has far more sway on the neighbourhood’s affairs than the Central Government, many miles away in the capital.

Fragmentation is the natural consequence of such a process playing out to its logical conclusion. If the local crime boss can accrue sufficient means & manpower to declare his local fiefdom, he will seize that opportunity out of Naked Self-Interest.

Worldwide, this will play out over the coming decades at varying speeds, scales & scopes. Nations once thought to be ‘eternal’ & their peoples & demographic compositions ‘everlasting’ will rapidly implode in this Negative-Sum environment.35

The most brutal hit will be to societies hollowed out en masse by Natural Decrease & emigration. Europe, in particular, will cease to exist by the century’s end.36

V. Growing Crises in Food Security & Resource Management Worldwide

Food & Resource Scarcity & Outages: Political & Economic Instability in a Resource-Depleted World- As food & resource scarcity tightens its grip on the global population from 2050 to 2075, outages in critical infrastructure will become a defining feature of political & economic life. With resource-rich regions becoming increasingly contested & international trade routes threatened by climate-induced migration, geopolitical conflict, & resource wars, nations will struggle to secure the food, energy, & raw materials necessary to sustain their populations. The collapse of energy grids & widespread power outages will become routine, especially in areas already vulnerable to infrastructure failure. Food shortages will lead to rations, black markets, & government control over food distribution. The scarcity of resources will deepen political divisions as the divide between resource-rich & resource-poor regions grows. As a result, the global economy will become further fragmented, with a growing emphasis on national resource control & localized survival systems. Social unrest, civil conflict, & authoritarianism may rise as governments struggle to manage these growing crises.

As energy & material flows stagnate & decline, the four pillars of modern industrial society, namely Steel, Plastics, Ammonia, & Concrete, will also stagnate & fall in the coming several decades. In the allegedly ‘developed’ world, this has already begun.37

By the late 21st century, this will mean Food Insecurity & Starvation worldwide.

This is because the requisite infrastructure necessary to upkeep & maintain Global Value Chains will have deteriorated by then to the point of irrelevance.

What that means is that ships & planes carrying the requisite food & water will not make it to market, thanks to the simplification & whole supply chains.

National governments, or whatever is left of them, will scramble to try & secure what little they have left, with Water & Soil wars breaking out worldwide. Freshwater & Chernozem, once taken for granted, will become more valuable than gold & jewels.38

Topsoil degradation in the coming decades will mean that by mid-century, the global amount of arable & productive land per person will, at most, reach a quarter of what was accessible to the average person in 1960, just a mere six decades ago.39

Freshwater resources will likewise come under increasing scrutiny, with larger nations seeking to coerce smaller ones into signing ‘unequal treaties’ concerning usage & access rights, with outright hostilities also breaking out occasionally.40

The mechanization of farms has already peaked in most of the industrial world, with nations like Japan showing declines in Farm machinery per unit of agricultural land.41

The outright end of mechanization (present & near future) will mean increasing material & energy flows necessary to feed Human populations worldwide. & while it is true that Population contraction is now ‘baked in,’ social mobility has yet to peak:

The standard of living is still anemically increasing in much of the Western world thanks to high life expectancies, access to public services & other variables.

While these, too, will eventually peak, stagnate & decline, they will, in the meantime, put further strain & pressure on already declining & Moribund soil & water resources.

Eventually, sometime in the late 21st century, this will mean excess deaths via starvation, neglect, crime & invasions for large chunks of the dependent population, namely the sick, children, the elderly, childbearing women, the disabled, etc.42

These will not happen overnight but will slowly tick up over Time yearly.

The consequence of these compounding tragedies will mean that whatever remains of National governments by the 21st century’s end will try their best to eke out a living with what labour force & material-energy resources they have left over.

This, in turn, will mean outright neglect of public works, infrastructure, etc., as resource management takes a turn toward more immediate & pressing needs.

By the late 21st century, much of Eastern & Southern Europe will thus begin to ‘Re-wild’ thanks to these pressures. This will then act as magnets for ‘invaders’ & migrants who will see empty, hollowed-out land that is ripe for the taking by brute force.43

VI. Steady Reclamation of Traditional Knowledge & Low-Tech Solutions

Reclamation of Traditional Knowledge & Low-Tech Solutions: Building Resilient Systems for a Sustainable Future- As food shortages, resource depletion, & energy outages become increasingly common, the reclamation of traditional knowledge & low-tech solutions will offer pathways toward creating resilient systems for a more sustainable future. Societies, forced to adapt to local challenges, will turn to methods once considered obsolete but are now as crucial for survival. Traditional building techniques, such as earth-based construction (e.g., cob, adobe, & rammed Earth), will be rediscovered as energy-efficient, low-cost solutions for shelter. Similarly, low-tech water management systems, like rainwater harvesting & drip irrigation, will become vital for securing clean water & ensuring agricultural productivity. In addition, craftsmanship & local production will replace global manufacturing, empowering communities to regain autonomy & reduce dependence on the fragile, globalized economy. These low-tech, sustainable practices will ensure survival & foster a renewed sense of community cohesion & cultural continuity in the face of global upheaval.

As the Deindustrial Night creeps in from all sides, many communities will pursue ‘business as usual’ & cling to whatever Technophillic fantasy du jour they can find. This variety of Cornucopian thinking will likely be prevalent for centuries to come.44

However, there will be those who choose to take the ‘Low-tech’ approach:

Some will do so out of necessity, thanks to the energy, materials, demography & ecology constraints they find their communities embedded in.

Many others will do so out of choice as they see the failures & setbacks suffered by those around them who insist that ‘everything is fine!’ & then continue to bash their heads into the wall of restoring several families of ‘High-tech’ approaches.45

This will mean gradually incorporating more localized forms of know-how endogenous to the land & its various peculiarities. The Industrial world’s notion of the ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy of maximizing energy-material flows for ‘High-tech’ solutions…

…will be slowly displaced in favour of Bioregionalism & other related approaches.46

For instance, Indigenous communities like the Inuit have profound cultural & social depth. This has enabled them to develop a ‘Technics’ that is local & ‘fitted’ to the ecological niches & bioregions of the Arctic, where they evolved over centuries.47

Permaculture, a relatively rare hobby for a select few in much of the Industrial world, will find a gradual uptick in its adherents as communities wrestle with less arable land & freshwater owing to the ecological degradation of the past several decades.48

Distributism & Localism, models for the economy, politics & wider society that today have only a few zealous adherents… will likewise find gradually increased adoption.

This is not to say that all these models will immediately displace what existed prior, namely modernity & its various corollaries. Instead, we will see them start making inroads in the late 21st century & beyond into the broader society with more gravitas.

This is because Failure is often the ultimate medicine for those hopelessly enamoured by the sundry siren songs & perils of Industrial society & its discontents. & it will be an outright Failure of the ‘High-tech’ approach that will ‘break the spell’ for many.49

Yet, for others, this will be an era of triumph, one that gradually further cements itself:

Those who have long been worried by the loss of traditional knowledge will find that said Intangible Cultural Heritage will discover a new, ready home in a world that is once more subject to Negative Feedback Loops, & requires localized solutions.

The era of the ‘Big Infrastructure Project’ will end as more Bioregional pursuits become the norm, in tandem with those seeking to maintain older Modernist infrastructure as best they can. This Hybrid approach will persist for several centuries.

The ‘Elites’ of this era will not be Corporate & Managerial like today but rather Manufacturing-oriented in the Hybrid context noted earlier.

The Agrarian-oriented ‘Elites,’ meanwhile, will not appear so long as Modernity’s ruins can be scavenged at reasonable energy-material margins…

…but that tale is for another Time!50 😉

VII. Limited Ecological Restoration & Biodiversity Conservation

Ecological Restoration & Biodiversity Conservation- Rewilding & Revitalization: As 2075 to 2100 progress, humanity’s commitment to environmental Restoration will drive Rewilding efforts slowly & steadily. Large swathes of land once converted for agriculture or urban development will be Rewilded- allowing Nature to reclaim its space. Keystone species will be reintroduced to ecosystems, & carefully planned biodiversity conservation efforts will aim to reestablish natural populations of animals & plants. Steady Restoration of natural carbon sinks like forests & wetlands will play a central role in addressing climate change & ensuring global carbon neutrality. The growing realization that the integrity of ecosystems is crucial to human survival will drive policies aimed at protecting biodiversity, not just as a moral imperative but as the basis for human resilience in a world still grappling with climate impacts & environmental degradation.

The degradation of Biocapacity worldwide is tied to the fact that Humans have been in Ecological Overshoot for over half a century now, with no signs of stopping.51

Trespassing Allah Most High’s limits ( ‘Nature’s limits’ if you are secular! 😉) in this manner is something organisms have done before, with very predictable results:

First, you get Population Growth beyond Carrying Capacity. Then you get the state of Overshoot to linger for some Time (this is where we presently dwell), culminating with simultaneous Contractions in Population, Future Carrying Capacity & other areas.52

Already, we see ever-increasing Population Contraction, Biodiversity Loss, & Resource Depletion globally. By the end of this century, these will converge to decimate & gradually grind down whole communities & their local biomes.53

These shifts will prompt more significant attention to ecological concerns, as the decimation of food webs & related structures will wreak havoc on agricultural activity.

Insect populations are vital to pollinating the lion’s share of our crops. The Western Honeybee (Apis mellifera) alone, for instance, pollinates around half of said crops.54

As these populations are decimated, with some rendered outright Extinct by the 21st century’s end, brute pragmatism will prompt sundry communities to take Biodiversity Loss & related Ecological issues more seriously, given rampant Food Insecurity.

For many, however, it will be ‘A Day Late & A Dollar Short.’

The Living Planet Index, analyzing some 34,836 wildlife populations & 5,495 native species this past half-century, found that over 70% of said monitored wildlife have already declined, with further declines expected mid to late 21st century.55

Technological stagnation, upward social mobility in the developing world & continued population growth in the Global South mean that there will be greater demand for farmland, even though crop yields will likely stagnate outright.

Thus, for the next few decades till about the mid-21st century, more cropland will become a prerogative for National governments, who will resort to clearing out jungles, forests, etc., en masse to account for the trends noted earlier.56

Such prerogatives will continue to put added pressure on Biodiversity & Ecology till ‘something breaks’ by the century’s end. At that point, even more strain will be placed on communities that ignore Ecological concerns outright.

Pursuits like ‘Rewilding’ will not enter the popular consciousness overnight; however, such notions will begin to appear on the frontier, especially among those communities worst impacted by all the sundry pressures we have touched upon.

We won’t see such things pursued willingly, nor should we expect them to!

This is because the essence of Faustian Man is to reject outright the existence of limits on his actions, instead blaming a lack of knowledge &/or values &/or willpower on the discrepancy (i.e. regarding what is possible v.s. what can be done *actually*).57

This is a feature, not a bug. & we can expect the 21st century to conclude with said feature intact in many parts of the now Moribund Western world.

It will, however, be dealt a mortal blow from which it won’t recover.

VIII. Stabilization via Localized Economies & Resource Sharing Projects

Stabilization Through Localized Economies & Resource Sharing: A Post-Industrial World of Cooperative Networks- Between 2075 & 2100, the collapse of industrial civilization & the erosion of centralized governance will give rise to new models of localized economies & resource sharing. Without global institutions, communities will create cooperative networks that allow for exchanging goods, services, & information based on mutual aid & shared responsibility. Resource sharing will be essential to meet local needs as centralized supply chains become unsustainable. Communities will establish local energy grids, water management systems, & food production networks, relying on sustainable agricultural practices & renewable energy sources. Rather than focusing on individual profit, these economies prioritize collective well-being & social equity, enabling societies to thrive despite external pressures. This economic self-sufficiency & cooperation model will be a key stabilizing force, allowing communities to weather the disruptions of the global collapse & rebuild from the ground up.

As the Old World gradually crumbles, societies will find that Markets & the interaction of buyers & sellers to determine pricing… become increasingly irrelevant.

Transactions will become more face-to-face, & the ‘online world’ we all take for granted will slowly fade into something more niche, limited & specialized, available in select locales with the requisite spare electricity & materials to upkeep it.

Gift economies, Barter & other related pursuits will gradually develop as the usage of moneyed currencies sees a steady decline sometime mid to late century & beyond.58

Steady-state, sedentary & subsistence lifestyles will begin to reappear worldwide en masse, signalling what the father of Modern Economics, Adam Smith, noted long ago regarding the temporary Nature of the Industrial Revolution & its corollaries.59

As they slowly chip away at the Paradigm of ‘Infinite Growth,’ now a shallow, empty husk of what it once triumphantly was… stability & continuity become relevant pursuits, & some communities will begin to pursue said objectives actively.

However, they will find that the lion’s share of their neighbours still prefer reminiscing about the ‘Lost Majesties’ of the Old World, for which many will continue to yearn for centuries more, even as conditions around them gradually worsen.60

A minority of people, meanwhile, will gradually come around to recognizing the novelty of their Deindustrial lifestyle & how said Empirical Reality necessitates a shift toward localization, especially regarding food, water, energy & other essentials.

Global Institutions & Central governance structures, rendered irrelevant by the pressures of past decades, will open up vacuums that are filled by these minorities, as well as by those who yearn for a return to a mythic, increasingly non-existent past.

Economic Self-Sufficiency, once an empty slogan bereft of meaning, will be actualized by these small communities who choose collective well-being, tradition, mutual aid, resource sharing & other related ventures over a now utterly disgraced capitalism.61

Meanwhile, Negative Feedback loops, which Humans have not seen in well over three centuries, will make their gradual comeback & thereby demand that limits be observed by individuals & communities. Otherwise, said people will perish en masse.

These selection pressures will mean greater cooperation, not out of morality & sagacity, but due to mutual interest, pragmatism & other self-centric motivations.62

Various initiatives will be pursued by said small groups to try & seek equilibrium with their local life-supporting systems, namely freshwater sources, arable land, etc. In particular, Churches, Mosques, etc., will play a vital role in said stabilization.

‘The Commons’ & our understanding of how they function, who they ought to benefit & how they ought to be allocated will see gradual shifts by the century’s end, moving gradually toward more Biocentric notions while also eschewing Anthropocentrism.63

Technophilia will not die this century, nor perhaps the next several centuries, given its hold on the popular psyche. For that, said Moribund Dogma must be replaced wholly by new meta-narratives, & an entirely new, meaningful way Humans view themselves…

…something that you only get from the outright Genesis of New Civilizations!64 😉

IX. Slow Cultural Renaissance & A Renewed Emphasis on Sustainability

Cultural Renaissance & Emphasis on Sustainability: A New Worldview for the Post-Industrial Era- As industrial society fades & the effects of climate change become undeniable, a cultural renaissance will arise between 2075 & 2100, characterized by a profound shift in how humanity views itself about the Earth. The long-standing human dominance over Nature will be replaced by a new worldview emphasizing interconnection & sustainability. People will embrace lifestyles prioritizing the planet’s well-being, choosing localism, simplicity, & resilience over global consumption & waste. Education systems will evolve to teach the interconnectedness of all living things, & the arts will flourish in forms that celebrate ecological balance & Nature’s cycles. Sustainability will be an environmental issue & a cultural revolution where every community, regardless of size or location, becomes a microcosm of ecological stewardship. This renaissance will revive spiritual & cultural practices that honour the Earth, leading to a world where humanity’s purpose aligns with the flourishing of life in all its forms.

Today’s Western world is in an increasingly downward, consumerist death spiral. Its utterly bankrupt & Moribund set of worldviews that worship only the Almighty Dollar, Boundless Innovation, & Human Cleverness will not survive a Negative-Sum World.65

Faustian Culture thus worships Progress, Infinite Growth & other absurdities, which allegedly are responsible for Man’s continued ‘March out of the Caves & into the Stars!’ yet it has all but extinguished what little vigour & dynamism it once possessed.

‘The relentless pursuit of infinite expansion—intellectually, technologically, & spatially—driven by an unyielding will to overcome all limits.’ — this Faustian maxim & prime directive will find itself gradually overcome by century’s end by its antonymic nemesis:

‘The passive acceptance of finite stasis—mentally, materially, & locally—guided by a resigned submission to inherent limitations.’ — this maxim of the anti-Faustian Cultural Renaissance will cement itself by the century’s end, expressing itself in myriad ways:

For some, the Ecological Crisis & its ensuing fallout on Human Activity (such as agriculture) will be the impetus to take a more critical look at man’s insistence that his Cleverness is sufficient to ‘Solve’ all of the world’s alleged problems.66

For others, it may just be as simple as recognizing that God Almighty’s Limits cannot (& should not) be transgressed &, thereby meaning that such pursuits stop. Sustainability, then, in all one’s dealings with Nature, is Non-Negotiable.67

Today, it’s more a ‘Lifestyle Choice’ for most. & for others, it is a form of naive ‘Virtue Signalling’ via which they signal to others (especially one’s peers) that they have internalized several aspects of relevant Regime Programming. That will soon change:

As times get rough & the Old Forms become ever more irrelevant in the face of rolling crises, compounding illths & disintegration of wealth, Sustainability in all areas of Human Activity will gradually become more common out of sheer Necessity.68

Once we calibrate the data from around a decade ago, today’s massive yields from synthetic fertilizers likely feed well over half the World.

This means around 4+ billion people total.69

This luxury won’t be available by the century’s end, given energy-material constraints coupled with Ecological limits, thanks to the Predicament of Overshoot.70

This means that communities will be compelled to utilize ‘Lower-Energy’ modes such as Organic farming & related pursuits to eke out, as best they can, a relatively nutritious diet using far fewer overall resources & with a far simpler Value Chain.

These pursuits, in turn, will only exacerbate more Biocentric worldviews, further eroding the various Anthropocentric modes that we began the 21st century with.

As the 21st century finally grinds to an end in this manner, there will be far fewer people overall worldwide, nowhere near the 6.1 billion we began with.71

Thus, the 22nd century will not begin with the sundry Grand Faustian Meta-Narratives of boundless growth, human ingenuity & indomitable willpower.

Instead, it will commence with an Exhaustion of Mind, Body, & Soul, an Exhaustion yearning for closure & harmony… things which the Faustian mode failed to provide.

X. Population Decline, Environmental Stewardship & Resource Equilibrium

Global Environmental Stewardship & Resource Equilibrium--The Restoration of Earth’s Systems: Between 2100 & 2125, global environmental stewardship will be considered the essential framework for human survival & planetary Restoration. With climate change & resource depletion reshaping the planet’s ecosystems, the focus will be on repairing damage & establishing resource equilibrium, where human activity no longer overburdens Earth’s natural systems. The steady Restoration of forests, wetlands, & marine ecosystems will be central to this effort, with human societies committing to restoring biodiversity & natural habitats lost during the industrial age. In addition, global resource management will slowly prioritize sustainable consumption & long-term ecological health over short-term economic growth. Environmental education & stewardship will become central to societal values as humanity embraces its role as a caretaker of the Earth.

The first quarter century of the 22nd century will continue to see Population decline worldwide, albeit more subdued than the nosedives we will see throughout the mid to late 21st century, thanks to various World Wars, Pandemics, Natural Disasters, etc.72

The New Century will begin with far fewer material-energy resources than was available to Mankind at the dawn of the New Millenium & the 21st century.

Likewise, Industrial output will decline to pre-20th century levels, with Food & water resources likely declining back to mid-20th century levels.73

However, a far lower Population will also bring far less pollution worldwide, coupled with various niches opening up for those ready, willing & able to scavenge & eke together a sedentary, subsistence living amidst the Deindustrial Ruins.74

The communities that move into these newly freed lands may not initially focus on Environmental concerns, nor will they view Stewardship as their primary frame of reference. That said, these issues will gradually move to the forefront over Time.

This is because, as these Deindustrial Ruins are steadily mined, recycled & excavated for their many resources (especially metals & plastics), norms & expectations will have to be set for how best to do all that work *without* pricing & related mechanisms.75

However, the Malthusian economy of the Pre-industrial world won’t be ‘coming back.’

Mankind’s understanding of itself in the early 22nd century will have sharply departed from the naive Anthropocentric notions of that Dead Past. The Post-industrial world will incorporate more Biocentrism, albeit some ghosts of the past will remain:

‘True Believers’ of the by now disgraced, dead & buried Faustian West will continue to insist that some enormous, ‘yet to be found & tapped’ resource stash exists somewhere, & thus, incredible technological advancements are ‘just around the corner.’76

By now, however, their numbers have dwindled to irrelevance, along with the decline of their chief opponents, the sundry Catastrophists of our Present day, with some minor additions throughout the long 21st century & beyond.77

Both these groups, one believing in ‘Fast Collapse & Extinction,’ & the other believing in ‘An Unstoppable Ascent to Utopia,’ will be routinely mocked, ridiculed & ignored wholesale by the lion’s share of people, who are too busy with practical matters:

Most will be too busy tilling the soil & hoeing the veggies to care much for what such ‘True Believers’ from both extremes have to say. Occasionally, in between hard labour & their various communal obligations, some may lend these folks an ear.

In the meantime, they will work alongside family, friends, neighbours & their wider community to reorient themselves towards more cyclical modes of living that are true to Nature’s sundry Rhythms. Once again, such acclimation will be slow & gradual.78

Memories & Tales from the Old World & its many dogmas will continue to have a substantial impact, slowing down said acclimation process considerably.

Nevertheless, the New World will continue its Succession, & in the coming centuries, it will steadily overcome many such memetic deadweights of the Industrial Era.

XI. Gradual Technological Stabilization & Adaptation to Low-Energy Systems

Technological Stabilization & Adaptation to Low-Energy Systems: Transitioning to a Sustainable Technological Future- Between 2100 & 2125, transitioning to low-energy systems will be the hallmark of human technological stabilization. With traditional energy sources such as fossil fuels no longer viable due to depletion & environmental impact, society will shift to sustainable, decentralized energy models. The focus will be on local energy solutions- such as solar, wind, & biomass- integrated into everyday life through microgrids & energy-efficient technologies. Technological stabilization will involve optimizing existing infrastructure to reduce energy use rather than continuously pursuing new, high-energy solutions. Adaptive technologies like low-power computing, energy-efficient transport, & passive architecture will redefine how societies function, emphasizing maintaining ecological balance. Societies will focus on energy conservation & efficiency, with technologies designed to maximize output while minimizing resource consumption, ensuring a harmonious relationship between human needs & the environment.

The sundry, steady pursuits of Resource Equilibrium & Environmental Stewardship will gradually move communities worldwide to view Stability, Equilibrium, & Adaptation as relevant considerations as Growth, Progress, & Innovation gradually take a backseat.

Technological stabilization will be standard courtesy of Low-Energy Systems, the norm across the Deindustrial Wastes. The Maximum Power Principle, which took Faustian Man to Great Heights… will have utterly deracinated him by then.79

Microgrids will be the norm in many of these communities, especially those who choose the rural countryside instead of the rim of Moribund Megapolities.

Even the latter group of communities, who partake in the scavenging, recycling & extraction of metals from these locations, will eventually have to consider Persistent Pollution & its negative illths on their workforces.80

They may not shift to Low-Energy Systems by the early 22nd century, but as Pollutants in these Ruins continue to exact a heavy toll on them, some will slowly begin the long retreat back to the countryside & its promise of a more Arcadian lifestyle.

In the meantime, these Salvage Crews will seek Optimization of what Technologies they have access to in these Wastes, making do with what trace, low-quality Fossil Fuel remnants they come across with great care, rationing & conservatism.

Their rural counterparts, who have relocated to the countryside, will quickly discover that what awaits them is not the peaceful & tranquil Arcadia that many believed, but rather brutish, labour-intensive, old-fashioned, plain-ol’ Hard Work.81

In this New World, the importance of Domesticated Animals will once more become apparent as contraptions like tractors, diesel-powered trucks, etc., will be in short supply. Thus, there will be a newfound demand for draught horses & cattle.

Such demand won’t be filled immediately, as the relevant breeds for said animals don’t exist today at the appropriate numbers, nor will they likely exist in sufficient quantity by the early 22nd century for a considerably depreciated Human Population.82

These endeavours will require at least a few more generations to bear fruit (perhaps a few centuries!), owing to the long-time horizon for Selective Breeding, coupled with scarcities in convenient ‘High-tech’ solutions to speed up these processes considerably.

Population Decline will continue from the previous century, albeit at a significantly slower pace, thanks to a Lower Human Population exerting far less overall strain on Non-Renewable Natural Resources, yielding much less Persistent Pollution.83

As things unwind & people settle down (be it in rural hamlets, rims around Moribund Cities or anything in between), many will access unique opportunities that had hitherto been unavailable to most throughout most of the Industrial Era:84

Whole swathes of arable land across Eastern & Southern Europe will be emptied of their millennia-long peoples, societies & cultures thanks to Population Decline, motivating millions to migrate Northward from Africa, West Asia & beyond.

War & Migration are constants of Human History, but so is the concurrent Ethnogenesis. At the dawn of the 22nd century, we will again see this trifecta appear, as European peoples will gradually assimilate into Eurabia, Eurafrica & Eurosiberia.85

XII. Arcadianism, Ecosophy, Ecotechnics, Retrotopia & Bionomics

Arcadianism, Ecosophy, Ecotechnics, Retrotopia & Bionomics: Creating Sustainable, Self-Sufficient Communities for the Future- Between 2100 & 2125, the collapse of industrial capitalism will prompt a shift toward ecocentric societies governed by principles of Arcadianism, Ecosophy, & Bionomics. Communities will embrace Retrotopia--a vision of the future where Technology & Nature coexist in more harmony, & low-tech solutions become the foundation of daily life. Arcadianism will encourage a return to simpler living, with people reconnecting to the land & focusing on local sustainability through small-scale farming, ecological Restoration, & regenerative practices. Ecosophy will shape a worldview that sees human flourishing as intertwined with environmental health, guiding people away from destructive consumption & toward balance with the Earth. Ecotechnics will facilitate this transition by offering renewable energy technologies, permaculture systems, & natural architecture that work with, rather than against, natural systems. Finally, bionomics will redefine economic systems, ensuring that the health of ecosystems is prioritized above short-term financial gain. This new world will be grounded in a deep respect for the planet’s resources & cycles, creating societies where humanity & Nature coexist sustainably.

The Future will not be anything like what various novels, movies & plays of the Past & Present claim it will be. It will not be mired in Apocalypse & Cataclysm nor comprise Mankind’s continued, felicitous Ascent to the Infinite Starry Sky Above…

The Real Future, the one we all ‘will probably be getting,’ has been outlined in broad brushstrokes, given continued trends for Ecological Overshoot, Technological Stagnation, Energy Poverty, Material Shortages, & Demographic Winter.86

A few years ago, the Grandmaster of DOOM, John Michael Greer, penned his excellent essay The Twilight of Anthropolatry (2017), where he analyzes the failed Paradigm of worshipping Man as the measure of all things, sacred & profane.87

With the gradual Decline & Fall of said Paradigm, & its proverbial chucking into the dustbin of History… new pathways & avenues will open up worldwide that gradually re-orient Mankind towards more Realistic & Modest views of himself.88

Granted, 100 years is a very short amount of Time. 2125 compared to 2025 is nothing once Geological Time (i.e. ‘Deep Time’ ) becomes our primary lens.89

Many will still cling to the Old, disgraced Anthropolatry of the Present, with some who will seek to bring back the Anthropolatries of decades & centuries Past.

Yet ultimately, such ideas will get memetically weeded out in the Long Future, for the advantages they once accrued for various societies & Civilizations will have disappeared entirely. Instead, most such ideas will be outright Maladaptive Burdens.90

As these notions gradually crumble & disintegrate, what ideas will replace them? Five notions stand out, though many more will likely dawn over the rest of the millennium. Yet, it is these five that will their ascent something in the early 2100s:91

Arcadianism — Humanity is resilient & scrappy, capable of persisting on Planet Earth for several million years. Thus, we should adopt Deep Time as our primary lens & plan accordingly for the Long Future, for we will be here for a very Long Time! 😉

Ecosophy — Ecological harmony & equilibrium should be continuous with Mankind’s flourishing. Man’s ethical & spiritual values ought to thus adaptively fit & conform to the Natural World’s sundry Limits & Boundaries.

Ecotechnics — Technologies & Social designs should adopt Ecological principles, seeking Optimization with the Environment around them instead of Maximizing design traits, which often tend to generate significant Persistent Pollution.

Retrotopia — Technologies that are fit & adaptive to the flourishing & development of people should be Optimized. This means that both Old & New Techs should coexist in a Mixed Tech setting rather than always trying to ‘Progress & Build something New.’

& finally, Bionomics — Rather than Land, Labour, Capital, & Enterprise, which form the basis of Mainstream Economics, we should instead value Materials, Energy, Ecology, & Demography, the four pillars comprising the Biophysical Economy of Nature.

As these ideas gradually gain prominence in the early 22nd century, Industrial Society & The Faustian West will finally begin to give way to the New Millenia Long Dark Age…92

Conclusion: The Fall of The West

The Fall of The West: Cultural Erosion & the End of the Western Ideal- The Fall of The West will be an economic & political collapse & a profound cultural erosion. From 2100 to 2125, the identity that once defined Western civilization--rooted in ideals of individualism, consumerism, & technological progress--will unravel. Climate change & the destruction of the natural environment will challenge the Western conception of progress, leading to a cultural shift toward sustainability & a renewed focus on living in harmony with the environment. As the West’s power wanes, its cultural influence will diminish, replaced by new, emerging civilizations that prioritize ecological balance & social equity over the consumer-driven values that once characterized Western life. The end of Western dominance will give way to a multipolar world where more egalitarian, ecocentric living systems replace cultural narratives around material wealth & technological supremacy.

In Man & Technics (1931), the German Polymath Oswald Spengler observed that decay & oblivion are the Ultimate Destiny of all living organisms. As one who viewed Civilization as analogous to organisms, he concluded that Death is their Final End.93

However, he neither despaired nor was jubilant at said inevitable prospect for his own Civilization, namely the Faustian West. Instead, he urged a stoic forbearance & calm demeanour, especially for those Westerners honour-bound to the Faustian Legacy.94

The end of Industrial Society, ‘Progress’ & related notions are underway. However, this Spenglerian forbearance is nowhere to be found. Instead, what we see around the Industrial World, both the West (& non-West) are sundry forms of Copium:

For some, it’s simply a matter of ‘Looking Harder!’ for more resources in the Crust, on the seabed & elsewhere, with some arguing for Comet & Asteroid mining en masse.95

For others, Human ingenuity & Cleverness will eventually win the day, blowing away all these ‘Illusory Limits’ with effortless ease once the ‘god of Technology’ is properly unleashed & harnessed by men of Science & Technology without arbitrary barriers.96

& Finally, others think that with sufficient oversight in statecraft from national governments & international bodies (& their sundry cooperative arrangements), the requisite cultural & social shifts can be made in Time to avoid Ruin.97

Yet, precisely *None* of these three groups will amount to anything in the Future.

As discussed here (& in copious Footnotes! 😉😘), Westerners have run out of Time &/or the so-called ‘fixes’ themselves do not resolve things anyway.

Mere Insistence that ‘Everything will be OK!’ is utterly Moot, & likewise False. Even worse is insisting, like Tolkien & his students, that some miraculous Eucatastrophe will somehow ‘Save the Day!’ when all Hope is utterly lost for Faustian Man.98

The Collison course Spengler foresaw in Man & Technics (1931) nearly a century prior is now ‘baked in.’ The only thing of doubt is its exact Scale & Scope. But it will happen, & that the fated Total Defeat of Faustian Man draws near… is all but certain.

Spengler himself was well aware that we do not get to choose what Historical period we are born into… thereby meaning that it is not up to us whether we are born during a Civilization’s zenith or its Total Disintegration.99

Yet perhaps Spengler missed something in his Final Observation:

Maybe Faustian Man is already Dead. His corpse presently festers without a tomb, already forgotten by most Westerners whose Moribund form shambles on lifelessly like a Zombie & mouthing slogans that he is unaware of.

In the Final Analysis… perhaps the West has entered its Final Slumber, & most of us haven’t Noticed. Maybe Faustian Man has already passed away peacefully in his sleep, rather than getting cut down brutally by his sundry foes at a later date.

The Churches & the Cathedrals still tower up into the Starry Sky, yet scarcely a soul walks into them & even fewer genuinely ask their Lord for forgiveness.100

The DOOM Cometh…!

The DOOM Cometh: Climate Collapse, Resource Wars, & the Fall of Global Society- The DOOM is coming faster than we think. The unrelenting forces of climate collapse & resource wars are already tearing at the fabric of our global society. From severe droughts to unprecedented flooding, agricultural collapse makes food production increasingly difficult. Resource wars have erupted over water, energy, & arable land, pushing nations into violent confrontations. As political systems fracture & international diplomacy fails to address the growing crises, the world slides into chaos. Governments that once promised security & stability are unable to contain the rage of starving populations or the desperation of those fighting for survival. The DOOM is not a singular event--it is a series of escalating disasters that will redefine the world as we know it. The end of the industrial age is upon us, & humanity will be forced to confront the realities of a new, dangerous, & uncertain world.

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