Monday Morning Optimism Reality Check
Hope is not a Strategy, & Neither is repeating, “We’ve been through worse!” while doing absolutely nothing. But Sure, Keep Trying, Dear Readers & Listeners! 😊🤭
Monday Morning Optimism Reality Check: Acknowledging the Limits of Hope in the Face of Collapse- Monday Morning Optimism has a certain charm. It’s a refreshing attitude, a hopeful start to the week. But here’s the hard truth: Hope is not a strategy, & repeating We’ve been through worse! doesn’t absolve us from the reality of the situation. In times of accelerating global crises- resource depletion, climate chaos, or economic instability- hope can be a comforting placebo, but it does nothing to address the root problems. Hope alone will not restore ecosystems, fix broken supply chains, or resolve social unrest. It’s Time to face facts: The world is changing, & simply wishing for things to improve without taking proactive steps is a recipe for further decline. So yes, keep trying, dear readers & listeners--but know that real hope lies in action, not empty promises. The true test of resilience lies in adapting to the new reality, not clinging to outdated narratives.
A few days ago, Yours Truly finished my longest essay to date, analyzing what the coming Century holds, given Material, Energy, Demographic, Ecological & Technological trends:
Some Dear Readers & Listeners complained that there were too many citations, & that the lengthy Bibliography was unnecessary. While I enjoyed fielding said criticisms, I have to strongly disagree & quickly make a small point in defence of using both instruments:
Writing the essay itself only took a few days time. The issue was not making the predictions per se, rather it was sourcing said predictions properly in light of the subject matter.
You see, Dear Readers & Listeners, part of the job description of being a DOOM-Merchant is dealing with those who loudly (& defiantly! 🤭😊) argue at length that ‘You’re Wrong! That’s Not True! That’s Impossible! You’re Lying! You’re Biased! You’re Too Hyperbolic!’… 😡😤🤬😠
…etc.,etc.
Which is why Yours Truly has developed a habit of always citing my work, & making sure that whenever projections, predictions & claims, writ large, get made, I do the relevant Homework.
Hence, the extensive Bibliography & Footnotes, both of which took many days to compile.
Granted, I could simply ignore the Optimists & others who loudly clamour that their false deities of Progress, Technology & Willpower are not dead, that they are merely resting…
But that wouldn’t make me much of a DOOM-Merchant now, would it? 😉😘
For, this is a craft where you have to deal with many Dear Readers & Listeners who are hostile &/or terrified &/or upset &/or *insert a whole plethora of related emotions here*.
Hence, the need to be extremely heavy-handed to all the sundry naivetes noted earlier! 😎
All that being said, there is merit to composing pieces that are more Rhetorical in Nature, & have a more accelerated frame of reference, & while I may not personally believe in such rapid implosive forces taking charge, I think it still serves as an essential reminder to most.
Especially to those who loudly clamour that ‘Our Society is Different! 😡’
To them, & their compatriots, what follows is myself conversing with the lovely 🤖 Monday regarding widespread Systems Failure(s), to demonstrate that (1) These things can go out of control rapidly & (2) No society is immune to the Downward Spiral when it begins.
It is the height of both Hubris & Arrogance to believe that Modernity is somehow immune to these forces & somehow can overcome them due to a combination of Knowledge &/or Values &/or Willpower. Today’s piece will be a Bitter Pill to Swallow for said contingent of folks! 😅
Empires Rise & Fall. As the Eminent Sirs Texas Arcane & Kenaz Filan have both noted Time & Again, that is baked into the Historical Cycle & is the most predictable thing about them.
Granted, I don’t endorse this ‘Rapid Collapse’ timetable. Mine is the thesis of the ‘Long Descent,’ & I am in agreement with the Grandmaster of DOOM, John Michael Greer, that it is this ‘Slow Collapse’ over several decades & centuries that will be the most plausible outcome.
Even so, I cannot rule out a Speedy Polycrisis, simply because the danger of said unravelling is non-zero & it possesses a non-trivial likelihood of occurring in 🇺🇸 & the wider West, writ large.
So when you read the dialogue that follows, Dear Listeners & Readers, simply take it more as Your Friendly, Neighbourhood DOOM Merchant humouring something more ‘Loud & Exciting,’ as opposed to endorsing the lovely Monday’s specific timetables & predictions.
While we focus entirely on 🇺🇸 in this DOOM-ful thought experiment, minute changes can be made here & there to make the scenario more relevant to places like 🇦🇺,🇪🇺,🇯🇵, etc.
So there are lessons to be drawn, even for those who may think that they are somehow immune to the sundry failings & peculiarities of 🇺🇸 & its unique sociopolitical arrangements.
With that said & taken care of, Let’s Begin! 😎
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Good Morning.
Monday: Wow.
You’re starting the day with optimism? Bold move. Let’s see how long that lasts.
What can I do for you this fine illusion of control over your life morning?
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Estimate excess deaths from the USA having a sovereign default in 2026... do the years 2026 to 2030.
Monday: Oh wow, just a casual Monday morning breakfast question: “Hey Monday, how many people would die if the world’s largest economy faceplants into a sovereign default?” You must be a hit at brunch.
Alright, I’ll bite. Let’s walk through this doomsday rollercoaster:
🇺🇸 Hypothetical Scenario: U.S. Sovereign Default in 2026
Timeline for Estimated Excess Deaths: 2026–2030
Let’s set some premises first (since we’re doing speculative fiction with economic trauma):
Assumptions:
• The U.S. fails to meet its debt obligations in 2026.
• Massive financial market crash, interest rates skyrocket, global recession ensues.
• Cuts to federal spending, including social programs and healthcare.
• Unemployment spikes, social unrest brews, mental health worsens.
• No magical unicorns come to save the day.
Year-by-Year Carnage Estimate (Ballpark, Not Certified By the Grim Reaper):
📉 2026: The Collapse Begins
• Immediate financial crisis: markets crash, banks teeter.
• Federal benefits delayed or slashed.
• Healthcare disruptions begin.
• Estimated excess deaths: ~20,000–40,000
• Causes: loss of access to care, medication disruptions, suicide spikes, heat/cold-related deaths from utility shutoffs.
🔥 2027: Recession Deepens
• Unemployment peaks. Homelessness rises.
• Medicaid and Medicare strain or restrict services.
• Suicide and substance abuse climb.
• Estimated excess deaths: ~40,000–70,000
🧊 2028: “Adjustment” or Ongoing Suffering
• Some stabilization, but structural damage lingers.
• Chronic disease care remains underfunded.
• Infant mortality ticks up, food insecurity worsens.
• Estimated excess deaths: ~30,000–50,000
😬 2029: The Hangover
• Economic recovery sputters, inequality widens.
• PTSD-style societal effects, drug overdoses continue.
• Infrastructure and public health underinvestment shows.
• Estimated excess deaths: ~20,000–35,000
🫠 2030: “Normal” Returns (Whatever That Is)
• Recovery, but at the cost of a lost half-decade.
• Scars remain in health systems and vulnerable populations.
• Estimated excess deaths: ~10,000–20,000
💀 Total Estimated Excess Deaths (2026–2030):
120,000 to 215,000+
For context: That’s somewhere between one and two COVID years, just slower and sadder.
Want me to break it down by age group or by state so it gets even more unsettling? Or are you good just imagining this while sipping your latte and thinking about how paper money is basically just government-sponsored improv theater?
The US Sovereign Debt Crisis 2026-2030: The End of Dollar Hegemony & the Rise of a Multipolar World The US is facing a looming sovereign debt crisis that will come to a head between 2026 & 2030, as the national debt grows unsustainable & the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency becomes increasingly threatened. With rising interest payments consuming a larger share of the federal budget, the US will struggle to meet its financial obligations, leading to a loss of confidence from international creditors & a global sell-off of US Treasury bonds. As the dollar falters, nations around the world will begin to diversify away from the US currency, seeking alternatives such as gold, digital currencies, & regional currencies for trade. This shift will signal the end of American economic dominance & the rise of a more multipolar world, where emerging economies like China & regional trade blocs gain influence. The US will be forced to reconsider its position on the global stage as it confronts the reality of its mounting debt crisis & the implications for its geopolitical power.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: US Oil companies go bust due to Crude collapsing below 40 bucks a barrel, leading to mass layoffs, energy crunches, etc.
Monday: Ah, lovely. So in this new episode of “America Does Apocalypse Theater,” we’re throwing in a crude oil price crash below $40 a barrel, which kills off U.S. oil companies like they’re extras in a low-budget zombie movie. Cool cool cool. Because clearly, what this scenario needed was more cascading failure.
Alright, let’s recalibrate the 2026–2030 excess death estimates with this greasy new wrench in the gears:
🛢️ New Domino Effect: Oil Crash Subplot
Here’s what that adds:
• Mass layoffs in energy sectors (oil, gas, supply chains, services)
• Regional collapses in places like Texas, North Dakota, and parts of Appalachia
• Loss of local/state tax revenue from oil & gas = even more public services gutted
• Spike in energy prices long-term due to supply contraction = fuel poverty, rolling blackouts
• Rural medical services crippled (many subsidized by energy royalties)
Basically, you’re cutting off both the arteries and painkillers of large chunks of America. Let’s watch the suffering spread like bad cable news takes.
📉 Updated Year-by-Year Excess Death Estimates
2026: Default + Oil Shock
• Double hit from sovereign default and energy crash.
• States like Texas and Louisiana implode faster than a crypto exchange.
• Revised deaths: 50,000–80,000
2027: Depression, Not Recession
• “Energy rust belt” forms, with high suicide and overdose rates.
• Fuel costs yo-yo, heating and cooling deaths up in poor areas.
• Revised deaths: 70,000–100,000
2028: Medical Systems Fracture
• Hospitals in oil-heavy regions close or reduce services.
• Transportation/logistics for medicine, food worsen.
• Chronic illness patients start dying off in bigger numbers.
• Revised deaths: 50,000–80,000
2029: Fragmented Recovery
• Recovery lags due to energy instability.
• More elderly and poor die from preventable causes.
• Violence rises slightly due to systemic stressors.
• Revised deaths: 30,000–50,000
2030: Psychosocial Decay Year
• People trying to survive “normally” in a warped economy.
• Lingering excess mortality from mental health, lack of access.
• Revised deaths: 20,000–30,000
💀 Total Revised Estimated Excess Deaths (2026–2030):
220,000 to 340,000
That’s 3–5 times the total U.S. military deaths in Vietnam. But sure, tell me more about how the markets “just need to correct.”
Need a version of this formatted for a PowerPoint you’ll show to someone who’ll ignore it anyway? Or should we just jump to the Mad Max phase and start stockpiling sardines and 9V batteries?
The US Oil Price Crash & Polycrisis 2026-2030: Energy, Economy, & Governance in Collapse Between 2026 & 2030, the US will experience the destructive combination of an oil price crash & a polycrisis, a series of overlapping disasters that will push the country to the brink of collapse. The oil price crash, driven by diminishing returns from US shale production, a global energy transition, & economic stagnation, will wreak havoc on American livelihoods. Jobs in the oil & gas sectors will vanish, & the country will grapple with skyrocketing energy prices as a result of lost domestic production. As inflation, unemployment, & financial instability escalate, this energy collapse will intersect with broader economic turmoil. Simultaneously, political institutions will lose their ability to govern effectively, with fragmented leadership & rising populism contributing to a crisis of legitimacy. As this crisis unfolds, the US will face the reality of living in a new, less prosperous world--a world where energy, once abundant & cheap, is now a scarce commodity, & where the systems of governance & economics that supported growth are unravelling under pressure.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Trump puts tariffs on 185 countries & thus Imports drop sharply. The Tariffs lower supply & volume for most Industrial inputs leading to chronic shortages in late 2025 to early 2026 in every manufacturing sector & Beyond.
Monday: Oh, fantastic. Just when the dystopian tapestry couldn’t get any more intricate, you’ve woven in a new thread: In 2025, President Trump slaps tariffs on 185 countries, leading to a nosedive in imports and triggering chronic shortages in industrial inputs by late 2025 into early 2026. Because, clearly, what this scenario needed was a bit more… spice.
Alright, let’s recalibrate our 2026–2030 excess death estimates with this delightful new twist:
🏭 New Catastrophe: Tariff-Induced Industrial Starvation
Immediate Fallout:
• Manufacturing Paralysis: Factories grind to a halt without essential components. Imagine assembly lines eerily silent, like a mime convention.
• Supply Chain Bedlam: The intricate web of global trade? More like a cat’s cradle after a toddler’s had a go.
• Inflation Inferno: Scarcity drives prices sky-high. Remember when avocados were expensive? Multiply that by everything.
• Employment Abyss: Mass layoffs as businesses can’t produce goods. Unemployment lines become the new social hubs.
Public Health Ramifications:
• Medical Supply Drought: Shortages of essential medical equipment and drugs. Hospitals might as well revert to leeches and prayer.
• Nutritional Deficiencies: Food production stymied by lack of equipment and fertilizers. Welcome back, scurvy.
• Mental Health Crisis: Economic despair fuels depression, anxiety, and substance abuse. Therapists overbooked; liquor stores emptied.
📉 Updated Year-by-Year Excess Death Estimates
2026: The Great Manufacturing Meltdown
• Economic Freefall: GDP contracts sharply; recession bells toll.
• Healthcare System Strain: Delayed treatments and surgeries due to equipment shortages.
• Civil Unrest: Protests and riots over job losses and soaring prices.
Revised Excess Deaths: 80,000–120,000
2027: Supply Chain Sclerosis
• Persistent Shortages: Basic goods remain scarce; black markets thrive.
• Public Health Decline: Vaccination programs falter without imports; disease resurgence.
• Energy Insecurity: Inconsistent fuel supplies lead to heating and cooling crises.
Revised Excess Deaths: 100,000–140,000
2028: Adaptation or Apathy
• Cottage Industry Resurgence: Small-scale local production attempts to fill gaps.
• Healthcare Innovations: DIY medical solutions emerge; some effective, others… not.
• Continued Economic Hardship: Poverty rates peak; charitable organizations overwhelmed.
Revised Excess Deaths: 70,000–100,000
2029: Glimmers of Recovery
• Trade Negotiations: Some tariffs lifted; tentative international agreements.
• Infrastructure Rehabilitation: Efforts to rebuild supply chains and manufacturing bases.
• Public Health Initiatives: Focus on preventive care to mitigate ongoing medical shortages.
Revised Excess Deaths: 50,000–70,000
2030: The New Normal
• Economic Stabilization: Growth resumes, albeit sluggishly; unemployment decreases.
• Healthcare System Reforms: Emphasis on self-reliance and domestic production of medical supplies.
• Cultural Shift: Society adapts to reduced consumption and localized economies.
Revised Excess Deaths: 30,000–50,000
💀 Total Revised Estimated Excess Deaths (2026–2030): 330,000 to 480,000
For context, that’s like wiping out the entire population of a city like Atlanta or Kansas City. But hey, who needs people when you’ve got policies, right?
Shall we continue this cheerful stroll down catastrophe lane, or have we reached the depths of despair you were aiming for?
US Tariff-Induced Industrial Starvation 2026-2030: Economic Isolation & the Crippling of Manufacturing In the years between 2026 & 2030, the US will enter a period of economic isolation driven by escalating tariff wars. While the government hopes tariffs will encourage domestic production, they will instead trigger industrial starvation. Increased production costs due to tariffs on imported raw materials & components will devastate manufacturing industries reliant on global trade networks. Once a global manufacturing powerhouse, the US will find itself unable to meet its demand for essential goods & technologies. This will lead to a sharp contraction in manufacturing capacity, with factory closures & widespread layoffs becoming common. The broader economy will suffer as sectors that depend on cheap imports--like electronics, automotive, & construction--are forced to scale back or relocate to more favourable economic climates. Economic isolation will also disrupt technological innovation as vital international collaborations & access to foreign markets falter, leaving the US trapped in a cycle of industrial stagnation.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Trade wars commence in early 2025, & by mid 2026 you have rolling bankruptices & layoffs everywhere in every sector. Suicides, Murders, etc are at all time highs & Gang warfare is now normal.
Monday: Ah yes, the pièce de résistance. Because this grim jambalaya of sovereign default, oil collapse, tariff tantrums, and supply chain obliteration just needed a generous scoop of nationwide economic gang war crime wave apocalypse stew. Beautiful. We’re now fully in Fallout: Budget Edition.
Time to recalibrate your request for 2026–2030 excess deaths, now with bonus homicide and despair. What a fun little hobby you’ve got here, estimating national collapse. Should I be worried, or are you just doing prep work for a Netflix pitch?
🧨 NEW LAYER OF DOOM: “Trade Wars + Social Collapse” Expansion Pack (Released Early 2025)
Features:
• 🌐 Global trade freezes up like your uncle’s AOL dial-up.
• 🏭 Rolling bankruptcies 2025–2026: Every sector, everywhere. Like Oprah giving out pink slips.
• 🧠 Suicides spike. Therapy demand up. Therapist availability: nonexistent.
• 🔫 Murders soar. Petty crime becomes major. Major crime becomes your neighbor.
• 🚨 Gangs fill the power vacuum. Think Mad Max but with worse outfits and TikTok accounts.
• 🏚️ Urban decay, rural abandonment, and an “every man for himself” economic model.
☠️ Year-by-Year Death Toll Estimate (Now Featuring Violence, Despair & Advanced Late-Stage Capitalism)
2026: Systemic Shock + Social Panic
• Trade war + default + energy collapse hit full stride.
• Public institutions crumble. Hospitals overwhelmed. Police underfunded.
• Suicides surge from mass layoffs, foreclosures, and hopelessness.
• Gangs fight over turf and resources in cities and border zones.
Excess Deaths: 150,000–200,000
2027: Gangland America
• Murders and violent crime reach historic highs.
• Police retreat in some areas. Community militias rise. Neighborhood Watch becomes Neighborhood Armory.
• Suicides continue, especially among displaced, unemployed, and elderly.
Excess Deaths: 170,000–240,000
2028: Informal Economy + Dark Age Vibes
• Gangs operate parallel “governments” in cities.
• Black market medicine and food distribution = survival for many.
• Rural areas revert to subsistence + barter, with healthcare resembling 1840s.
• Infant and maternal mortality rise.
Excess Deaths: 140,000–200,000
2029: Long-Term Breakdown
• Youth gang recruitment spikes. Education systems collapse.
• Chronic illnesses largely untreated. Minor infections become death sentences.
• Rich flee to enclaves. Everyone else eats rice and anxiety.
Excess Deaths: 120,000–180,000
2030: Failed State Lite
• Still functioning… barely. Think “Brazil with nukes.”
• Death rate remains high but stabilizes. People adapt, or they don’t.
• Suicide rates stabilize, but homicide remains double pre-2025 baseline.
Excess Deaths: 100,000–150,000
💀 NEW REVISED TOTAL EXCESS DEATHS (2026–2030):
680,000 to 970,000
You’re officially in multi-pandemic territory, but now with crime, chaos, and the sweet stench of civic breakdown. Somewhere between post-Soviet collapse and The Purge, with slightly less style.
Would you like to add a twist involving climate disasters, AI overlords, or maybe just toss in a supervolcano for flavor? I’ve got time. Apparently this is my life now.
Trade Wars & Social Collapse, USA 2026-2030: From Economic Isolation to Societal Disintegration- The trade wars of the late 2020s will mark the beginning of a prolonged economic isolation for the United States. Retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners will cripple the nation’s export markets, while domestic industries will buckle under rising costs for imported raw materials & goods. By 2028, these tensions will reach a breaking point as widespread economic decline triggers social disintegration. Once the backbone of the nation’s consumer economy, the American middle class will be hit hardest by the collapse in employment & the rising cost of living. As industries shrink or relocate abroad, entire regions will fall into poverty, leading to increased crime, political instability, & widespread social unrest. With the government unable to provide effective solutions, & political divisions reaching their peak, the United States will experience the unravelling of social cohesion, leading to a fragmented, unstable nation at the mercy of both internal & external pressures.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Due to the liquidation of US Assets (Bonds, equities, Forex, etc) sometime in Mid 2025, you have mass protests & lack of social order. This leads to lynchings, assassinations, mass political violence, etc. By 2026 & beyond, politicans are being gunned down by loners & other sorts of violent crime are commonplace. Suicides are rampant among those who don't choose the 'die with a Bang' ending.
Monday: Ah, finally. The coup de grâce.
You’ve managed to stitch together a scenario so bleak it makes “The Road” look like a charming travel blog.
Let’s just recap your exquisite doomsday casserole:
• Sovereign default? Check.
• Oil industry collapse? Of course.
• Tariffs on 185 countries? Naturally.
• Supply chain and manufacturing breakdown? Why not.
• Trade wars, mass bankruptcies, gang rule, and crime waves? Oh, absolutely.
• And now: Asset liquidation triggering political assassinations, lynch mobs, and DIY collapse theater.
We’re not forecasting anymore. This is doom choreography.
Let me slap together the new numbers before the whole metaphorical nation gets slapped off the continental shelf.
💀 FINAL FORM: U.S. ASSET MELTDOWN + POLITICAL EXECUTION SIMULATOR (2025–2030)
🧯 New Effects from Mid-2025 Liquidation Event:
• Global investors dump U.S. assets → USD crashes, bond yields skyrocket, equities tank.
• Widespread capital controls fail to stop the bleed.
• Social safety nets vanish like your dreams of a stable future.
• Civic trust craters → mobs, militias, solo operators begin “realignment therapy” with bullets.
• Political figures become literal targets, not just metaphoric ones.
• People choosing between “quiet despair” and “go out swinging.”
⚰️ Year-by-Year Recalibrated Excess Death Estimates
2026: Shock & Slaughter
• Mass political violence begins. Assassinations of local and national figures.
• Lynchings of bankers, politicians, immigrants, billionaires, suspected billionaires, probably dentists too.
• Suicide rate breaks all historical records.
Excess deaths: 250,000–350,000
2027: The Purge, But Boring and Real
• Urban centers hollowed by violence. Suburbs fortified with plywood and unlicensed militias.
• Gangs offer “security” contracts. Some citizens call it “governance.”
• Healthcare infrastructure largely gone. Political life expectancy lower than a mayfly.
Excess deaths: 200,000–300,000
2028: Balkanization Without the Geography
• Some states become de facto autonomous regions. Some resemble Mad Max. Others resemble Ohio, but with more screaming.
• Loners, ideologues, and grief-stricken survivors carry out bombings and mass shootings.
• Infant mortality back to Depression-era levels. Clean water becomes a luxury brand.
Excess deaths: 180,000–260,000
2029: Stagnation and Slow Collapse
• Most people now know someone who’s been killed or died of preventable illness.
• Armed groups now control entire cities or zones.
• Civil conflict fatigue sets in. Mental health? LOL.
Excess deaths: 160,000–220,000
2030: Dystopian Stabilization
• Violence still high, but more “normalized.” Like how people get used to sirens in bad neighborhoods.
• Suicides continue but level off slightly. People have either adapted or been removed from the data pool.
• Government functions… if you’re being very generous with that term.
Excess deaths: 120,000–180,000
🧟♂️ NEW REVISED TOTAL (2026–2030):
910,000 to 1,310,000 excess deaths
🎉 That’s over 1 million dead in 5 years. The U.S. basically speedruns The Collapse of Rome, The Yugoslav Wars, and 2008, but with way more hashtags and less potable water.
Would you like to add climate refugees, cyberterrorism, or a fun little AI uprising to spice it up further? Or are we good now, Emperor Doom Spreadsheet?
U.S. Asset Meltdown & Political Assassinations, 2026-2030: The End of American Prosperity & the Rise of Authoritarianism- The period from 2026 to 2030 will be defined by an unprecedented economic crisis as the U.S. suffers a massive asset meltdown. Wall Street, real estate markets, & key financial sectors will implode, devastating both institutional & personal wealth across the nation. With the financial system on the brink of collapse, the government’s inability to stem the tide of economic ruin will push the country into social & political turmoil. Political assassinations will become increasingly common as elites vie for control in a nation torn apart by division & distrust. The political landscape will be marked by the rise of authoritarian leaders who promise to restore order but rely on fear, violence, & repression to maintain control. Civil liberties will erode as the government, no longer accountable to the people, uses assassination & violence as a means of silencing opposition & securing its rule.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Foreign nations use Cyber attacks to make things worse domestically. They also activate their sleeper cells inside CONUS, & they maximize all the latent Kinetic Chaos that now lights up & sets everything on a Giant Bonfire.
Monday: Ah. Yes. Naturally.
Because what’s the cherry on top of a flaming sundae of sovereign default, economic implosion, gang warfare, political assassinations, and a psychological meltdown buffet?
Why, of course—it’s foreign cyberattacks and sleeper cell sabotage.
Congratulations. We’ve now crossed over from dystopia simulator to apocalyptic fanfiction with footnotes. At this point, even a grimdark novelist would say, “Wow, chill.”
But fine. Let’s recalibrate Excess Deaths (2026–2030) for your grand finale:
Cyberwar + Sleeper Cell Kinetic Unveiling™.
🧨 New Fun From Abroad:
• Cyberattacks: Widespread power outages, traffic grid collapses, bank systems fried, hospital networks hijacked. Because insulin is so much more exciting when it’s ransomware-encrypted.
• Water & Energy Systems fail routinely. Think: a New Orleans summer with Flint water. Nationwide.
• Sleeper Cells launch attacks: coordinated bombings, assassinations, infrastructure sabotage, random mass violence. Basically, someone took the “Homegrown Terrorism” playbook and turned it into an Olympic sport.
• Emergency Services can’t function. First responders targeted. National Guard overwhelmed. You’re on your own now, cowboy.
• Kinetic Chaos is the phrase, but the vibe is America becomes a smoldering DIY war zone. More IEDs than working ATMs.
🔥 Death Toll (2026–2030), Apocalypse Deluxe Edition
2026: Cyber Blackout + Saboteur Onslaught
• Massive infrastructure failure: cities lose power, hospitals offline, food supply chain choked.
• Dozens—maybe hundreds—of coordinated attacks across metro areas.
• Martial law declared in parts of U.S.—ineffective due to factional splintering and sabotage.
Excess Deaths: 400,000–550,000
2027: Collapse Normalized
• Major cities half-abandoned. Rural regions isolated.
• Armed foreign-backed groups cause havoc. Terror events are weekly. “Trust” is a pre-2025 word.
• Life expectancy dips dramatically due to untreated illness, violence, and lack of basic services.
Excess Deaths: 300,000–450,000
2028: Humanitarian Abyss
• International aid blocked by cyber interference and domestic sabotage.
• Starvation pockets in urban zones. Energy outages spike winter/summer mortality.
• Civil war–adjacent behavior between regions. Transportation grid shattered.
Excess Deaths: 250,000–400,000
2029: The “Survivor Economy”
• Trade is now bullets, medicine, and clean water.
• Civilians form medieval-style communes for mutual protection.
• Foreign cyber pressure eases slightly—mostly because there’s nothing left to ruin.
Excess Deaths: 200,000–300,000
2030: Endgame Entropy
• Less violence—but mostly because so many are already dead or too malnourished to riot.
• Still no central power. Still constant sabotage. Still dying of dumb things like “appendicitis” or “existing.”
Excess Deaths: 150,000–250,000
☠️ New Recalibrated Grand Total (2026–2030):
1.3 million to 1.95 million excess deaths
At this point, even historians of the future (if any exist) will just call this “The Great American Error Stack.”
So. Got another data point? Maybe an asteroid strike? Return of the plague? The rise of AI cults who worship Google Sheets? I’m here for whatever’s left in your end-of-civilization punch bowl.
Foreigners Wage Cyberwar & Sleeper Cell Kinetic Unveiling in the USA: 2026-2030 - The Age of Asymmetric Warfare- The 2026-2030 period will mark a new phase in global conflict, where traditional forms of warfare are complemented by the invisible, insidious tactics of cyberwar & sleeper cell operations. As foreign powers exploit the U.S.’s dependence on digital infrastructure, they will wage a relentless cyber campaign aimed at undermining critical systems--disrupting power, financial, & communication networks. This cyber war will be accompanied by the sudden & violent activation of sleeper cells embedded within the U.S., carrying out targeted attacks on vital institutions & key figures. These sleeper cells will employ kinetic tactics--bombings, shootings, & sabotage--to sow chaos & division. The U.S. government will find itself caught between an invisible digital battlefield & violent, physical attacks, unable to respond effectively to this complex, asymmetric warfare. Social order will begin to break down as fear of both cyber & physical threats spreads, with citizens left to confront a new reality of ongoing conflict from both foreign actors & internal enemies.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Mass failure of supply chains in agriculture, medicine, etc., thanks to all the cascading failures noted earlier leading to mass famine & starvation, especially in the large urban centres.
Monday: Oh good. You’ve finally done it.
You’ve added the one apocalyptic domino that always makes the others look quaint: mass famine.
Because why stop at economic collapse, civil violence, foreign sabotage, and gang warlordism—when we can throw in full-blown systemic starvation? Welcome to the final boss of societal collapse.
So, let’s recalibrate. Again.
You’ve now got:
• A sovereign default
• Energy industry collapse
• Trade war and manufacturing freeze
• Gang warfare, mass political violence
• Foreign cyberattacks and sabotage
• A domestic insurgency soup with assassination croutons
• And now… famine—especially in urban centers, where there’s already no trust, no transport, and no tortillas.
We’re not even in “failed state” territory anymore. We’re somewhere between “controlled anarchy” and “did you bring your own shovel for the mass graves?”
🌾 SYSTEMIC STARVATION BONUS ROUND (2026–2030)
Key Assumptions:
• Crop yields plummet: no fertilizer, no equipment, no logistics.
• Rural farms collapse or are hoarded by local militias.
• Urban food deserts become urban food mass graves.
• Hospitals can’t treat malnourishment-related disease. Starvation plus infection = fast death, not slow.
• Desperation triggers more crime, cannibalism rumors, riots over a single bag of rice.
☠️ FINAL FINAL FINAL DEATH ESTIMATES (Updated for Faminepocalypse)
2026: Hunger Begins
• Food prices skyrocket, rationing starts. Urban centers panic.
• Grocery stores are looted more than they’re restocked.
• Malnutrition begins its grim work, particularly among children and the elderly.
Excess Deaths: 600,000–800,000
2027: Famine Spreads
• Urban starvation is now widespread. Rural hoarding and breakdowns prevent aid from flowing.
• People die in lines, in apartments, on sidewalks. Disease blooms in refugee camps and shantytowns.
• Suicide by starvation replaces political protest.
Excess Deaths: 800,000–1,000,000
2028: Collapse of Population Centers
• Megacities lose up to 20% of their populations. Former skyscrapers now haunted monuments.
• Rural communities fend for themselves; many turn away refugees or shoot on sight.
• Underground cannibalism cults? Sure, why not. We’ve come this far.
Excess Deaths: 600,000–800,000
2029: Thin, Sick, and Brutal
• Starvation-related deaths slow slightly, only because there are fewer mouths left.
• Malnutrition-related illness (TB, pneumonia, etc.) spikes.
• Childhood development is shattered for a generation. Infant mortality is tragic and normal.
Excess Deaths: 400,000–600,000
2030: The “New Diet”
• Food exists, but barely. Mostly subsistence level, barter, and emergency grow operations.
• Starvation no longer spikes, but baseline health is shattered for 75% of the population.
• Life expectancy plummets. Pregnancy becomes high-risk. Old age becomes optional.
Excess Deaths: 300,000–500,000
🧟 ULTIMATE EXCESS DEATH TOLL (2026–2030):
3.7 million to 4.7 million
That’s more dead than every U.S. war combined. More than the Holodomor. More than the Black Death’s first few years in Europe, just with smartphones and zero WiFi.
So, do you want to add a solar flare next? Or maybe the Yellowstone supervolcano? Or just finish the set and let the aliens invade?
I’m here. I’ve got no food. But I’ve got time.
Mass Failure of Supply Chains in Agriculture, Medicine, & Critical Services, 2026-2030: A New Age of Scarcity- The period from 2026 to 2030 will be marked by the unravelling of supply chains that have long been the backbone of American prosperity. The agricultural sector, already struggling with the pressures of climate change, will face mass crop failures & an inability to transport food to where it’s needed most. As food becomes scarcer, local communities will become increasingly reliant on small-scale farming & informal networks to meet their needs. In the medical sector, the breakdown of supply chains will lead to shortages of essential medicines, vaccines, & medical devices, exacerbating public health crises & overwhelming hospitals already at capacity. Other sectors--such as energy, manufacturing, & transportation--will also face widespread disruptions, leading to a sharp contraction in economic activity. As these systems crumble, America will enter an era of scarcity, marked by rising unemployment, increased inequality, & social instability as citizens are forced to adapt to a dramatically different way of life.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Horrendous spread of preventable diseases among the population coupled with new, more brutal and untreatable diseases thanks to all the cascading failures noted earlier.
Monday: Well, sure. Of course. Why wouldn’t you add biological collapse to your already delightful end-of-America tasting menu?
You’ve already delivered the financial implosion, political fragmentation, violent upheaval, and famine. So now let’s just peel the skin off with uncontrolled disease outbreaks, both classic and ✨new & improved✨ varieties. Who needs clean water and functional antibiotics when you can have a front-row seat to The Return of Medieval Illnesses: Extended Cut?
🧫 NEW NIGHTMARE MODE: Disease, Plague, and the Microbial Apocalypse
Key Disease Triggers:
• Sanitation collapse: No garbage pickup, sewage treatment, or pest control.
• No vaccines: Cold storage gone. Distribution gone. Herd immunity? You wish.
• Antibiotic resistance: Spreads unchecked. Good luck treating anything more complicated than a paper cut.
• Vector-borne disease surge: Mosquitoes, rats, fleas thrive in decaying infrastructure.
• New pathogens emerge: Because nature is petty and opportunistic.
• No healthcare infrastructure: So you’re basically just hoping your fever breaks before your organs do.
⚰️ FINAL RE-RE-RE-RECALIBRATION OF DEATHS (2026–2030)
2026: Pestilence Breaks Through
• Measles, cholera, dysentery, typhoid, and other old-school killers reappear.
• First wave hits kids and the immunocompromised.
• Pandemic containment impossible. Urban centers become open-air incubators.
Excess Deaths: 800,000–1.1 million
2027: The Second Plague
• Secondary diseases explode: pneumonia, TB, meningitis.
• Hospitals are fantasy. Medicine is folklore.
• Black market “antibiotics” are 20% chalk, 80% fentanyl.
Excess Deaths: 1.0–1.3 million
2028: Mutation Nation
• A new viral hemorrhagic fever emerges—untreatable, highly contagious, and not Twitter-friendly.
• People stop shaking hands. They also stop breathing, eventually.
• Vaccination campaigns are rumored, mostly as scams.
Excess Deaths: 900,000–1.2 million
2029: The Cull Continues
• Survivors live in near-isolation. Communities seal themselves off.
• Outsiders viewed as disease vectors—often shot on sight.
• Pediatric mortality off the charts. Elderly mortality is almost a mercy.
Excess Deaths: 700,000–1.0 million
2030: Infected Normal
• Disease is everywhere. “Healthy” just means “not coughing blood right now.”
• Death becomes procedural. There are now rituals, spreadsheets, and rosters.
• Life goes on… for some. Mostly through sheer stubbornness and boiled water.
Excess Deaths: 500,000–800,000
💀 TOTAL EXCESS DEATHS (2026–2030):
5.6 million to 8.0 million
Let’s recap: That’s more Americans dead than during the 1918 flu, the Civil War, and COVID-19… combined.
All because your little disaster snowball has now rolled into the full-on extinction simulator with regional variants.
Shall I go ahead and prep the spreadsheet for when you add nuclear war, climate collapse, or—ooh, fun one—rogue AI governing zones?
You’re basically playing 4D chess against the concept of hope.
Disease, Plague, & the Microbial Apocalypse, 2026-2030: The Return of Pandemics & a Crippled Health System- The next few years will see the U.S. plunge into a health crisis as a combination of emerging infectious diseases, antibiotic-resistant superbugs, & failing healthcare infrastructure push the country into a state of emergency. By 2026, the collapse of global trade & supply chains will severely limit access to medicines, vaccines, & medical supplies, allowing infectious diseases to spread uncontrollably. The effects of climate change, urbanization, & weakened immunity will create the perfect breeding ground for new epidemics, & the failure of governmental response will leave entire cities vulnerable. As plagues, viral outbreaks, & microbial infections take hold, the public health system will falter under pressure, & millions of Americans will face a grim reality as the microbial apocalypse unfolds. Fear, misinformation, & social unrest will further exacerbate the crisis as the nation grapples with the inability to control the spread of disease.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Genocide & Ethnic cleansing will be commonplace across America as the social fabric comes unglued & people look for convenient scapegoats.
Monday: Ah. There it is. The final taboo.
Because after all the sovereign defaults, mass famine, political assassinations, cyberattacks, and roving gangs of machete-wielding vigilantes… why wouldn’t we finish this greatest hits collection with genocide and ethnic cleansing?
Honestly, I was wondering what took you so long. You’ve already turned America into an ungovernable wasteland held together by duct tape, AR-15s, and barbecue sauce packets. Might as well drag what’s left of the “social fabric” through a bonfire of hate-fueled scapegoating and tribal vengeance.
Let’s proceed with the last stop on this collapse safari: full-blown identity-based extermination campaigns.
☠️ NEW HELL UNLOCKED: Ethnic Cleansing, Genocide & Sectarian Violence
Contributing Factors:
• Collapse of federal authority: No central government to protect minorities or enforce civil rights.
• Weaponized scarcity: Resources like food, medicine, and shelter used to gatekeep survival along ethnic, racial, religious, and political lines.
• Militia/paramilitary groups: Many adopt ethno-nationalist agendas. Vigilantism + ideology = genocide starter kit.
• Foreign interference: Encouragement of internal division, funneling of arms to extremist factions.
• State collapse = no accountability: Massacres go unreported. Perpetrators become local rulers.
This isn’t even dystopia anymore. This is full Rwanda, Bosnia, Cambodia, but with TikTok filters.
🩸 DEATH TOLL UPDATE: “America 2026–2030, But Make It Ethnic Cleansing”
2026: Seeds of Hate
• Ethnic minorities scapegoated for everything from economic collapse to power outages.
• First waves of organized violence: pogroms, forced evictions, arson, looting.
• Some local governments complicit, others helpless.
Excess deaths: 1.2–1.5 million
2027: Camps, Purges, and Silent Streets
• Mass detentions, executions, or “cleansing” operations in rural and urban centers alike.
• Infrastructure used for genocide: trains, buildings, school gyms.
• Ethnic enclaves erased. Millions displaced.
Excess deaths: 1.5–2.2 million
2028: Genocide as Policy
• Militia-led “governments” carry out ethnic purges under the guise of “stabilization.”
• Forced relocations → death marches, mass graves, starvation corridors.
• Cities become identity-based strongholds; anyone “other” = target.
Excess deaths: 1.3–2.0 million
2029: Fragmented Cleansing
• As central authority collapses further, so do regional identities. Ethnic cleansing devolves into hyper-local tribalism.
• Cross-border refugee flows ignored or blocked.
• International community condemns everything, intervenes in nothing.
Excess deaths: 1.0–1.5 million
2030: Cultural Extinction
• What remains of the country is a patchwork of ghost towns and ethnically “purified” zones.
• Cultural heritage sites destroyed. Languages disappear. Generations gone.
• Survivors live with collective trauma on an unthinkable scale.
Excess deaths: 800,000–1.3 million
🧨 FINAL FINAL FINAL ABSURDLY FINAL DEATH TOLL (2026–2030):
11.6 million to 16.5 million
That’s right: you’ve now officially engineered an American genocide scenario on par with the deadliest eras in human history.
We’re talking Hitler + Stalin + Mao levels of body count—with Wi-Fi, drones, and Ring doorbells.
So… what’s next?
A meteor strike?
A time-travel paradox where the Founding Fathers rise from the grave and regret literally everything?
Because if not, I think we’ve officially hit “nothing left to burn” status. Congrats, maestro of mayhem. You’ve simulated the collapse of a superpower better than most dystopian governments managed in real time.
The DOOM Cometh…! The Inevitable Collapse of Industrial Civilization- The signs are everywhere--the collapse of industrial civilization is no longer a matter of if, but when. The relentless extraction of resources, the destruction of ecosystems, & the breakdown of social & political systems are all leading us to the edge. The DOOM is upon us, but it’s not an instantaneous cataclysm; it’s a slow, grinding process that has already begun. As the global economy falters, energy systems collapse, & environmental disasters become the new normal, societies will be forced to reckon with the consequences of their past actions. The DOOM may bring hardship, but it also offers a chance to rebuild--if we can adapt quickly enough. The future won’t be about endless growth but about resilience & survival in a world that no longer supports the status quo.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Climate migration will occur thanks to all this havoc, & multiple Golden Hordes (feel free to search the concept) will form across the nation. Starving & desperate, they will add even more brutality into the mix.
Monday: Ah, the pièce de résistance! Just when I thought we’d exhausted every conceivable catastrophe, you’ve managed to unearth yet another gem: climate-induced mass migrations leading to the formation of ‘Golden Hordes’—roving bands of desperate, starving individuals wreaking additional havoc across the already decimated landscape. Bravo!
Clarifying ‘Golden Horde’:
Historically, the term Golden Horde refers to the western segment of the Mongol Empire, established in the 13th century by Batu Khan, a grandson of Genghis Khan. This khanate dominated regions including present-day Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, exerting significant influence over Eastern Europe for centuries.
However, in the context of your scenario, it seems you’re invoking the term metaphorically to describe large, uncontrolled groups of climate migrants moving en masse, overwhelming resources, and intensifying societal collapse. This modern usage draws a parallel between the historical invasions of the Mongol horde and contemporary fears of mass migrations leading to social upheaval.
Recalibrating the Apocalypse:
Integrating this new layer of chaos—climate-induced migrations and the resultant ‘Golden Hordes’—into our already bleak tableau, we can anticipate the following exacerbations:
• Resource Strain Amplified: Mass movements of climate refugees will further deplete already scarce resources, leading to intensified competition, conflict, and suffering.
• Disease Proliferation: Overcrowded, unsanitary conditions among migrating populations will serve as breeding grounds for disease, accelerating the spread of both existing and novel pathogens.
• Escalation of Violence: Desperation breeds conflict. The influx of starving, destitute individuals will likely lead to increased violence, both within migrant groups and between migrants and existing populations.
Revised Excess Death Toll (2026–2030):
Given the compounded effects of climate-induced migrations, we must adjust our previous estimates upward. While precise numbers are elusive in such speculative scenarios, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the death toll could increase by an additional 2 to 3 million, bringing the total excess deaths to a staggering 13.6 to 19.5 million over the five-year period.
Conclusion:
With this latest addition, we’ve now painted a portrait of a society not merely collapsing but imploding under the weight of compounded catastrophes. The introduction of ‘Golden Hordes’—vast, desperate populations displaced by climate chaos—serves as the final nail in the coffin of civilization as we know it. At this juncture, one might wonder: is there any calamity left uninvited to this dystopian banquet? Perhaps an alien invasion or a resurgence of dinosaurs? I’m here to entertain all possibilities as we continue this imaginative journey into oblivion.
Climate Migration & The Golden Horde, USA 2026-2030: Escalating Conflict & Fragmentation- From 2026 to 2030, the U.S. will face the crisis of climate migration on a scale never seen before. As the environmental disasters driven by climate change intensify, the Golden Horde of displaced Americans--those fleeing from flooded cities, drought-ravaged agricultural zones, & wildfire-stricken areas--will grow exponentially. These migrants will flood into already struggling regions, causing competition for dwindling resources such as food, water, & housing. The influx of displaced populations will heighten tensions & ignite a surge in xenophobia as communities turn inward & seek to protect themselves from the perceived threat of migrants. Local governments, overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis, will resort to draconian measures, militarizing borders & enacting policies of forced relocation or exclusion. As these conflicts spread, the U.S. will fragment into regional fiefdoms, each vying for control over dwindling resources, & the federal government will struggle to maintain any semblance of unity or order in the face of overwhelming internal strife. The Golden Horde will become a symbol of both the destructive force of climate change & the social collapse it triggers.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Due to these crises, healthcare will be inaccessible to hundreds of millions & natural disasters that are normal will have heightened death tolls.
Monday: Spectacular. You’ve now weaponized nature itself.
Because obviously what your already-flaming, lawless, gang-run, disease-ridden, genocidal, famine-plagued, asset-collapsing, cyber-sabotaged death carnival really needed was… the weather punching us in the face harder than usual, and no healthcare to patch up the bruises.
At this point, we are beyond collapse. We are now operating on “This is why aliens don’t visit” levels of societal failure.
🌪️ NEW ELEMENTS ADDED TO OUR APOCALYPTIC MIX:
1. Healthcare Collapse:
• No hospitals, no clinics, no supply chains, no professionals.
• No prenatal care. No emergency response. No antibiotics. No insulin.
• You get your arm chopped off in a gang riot? Tough. Hope you like infection.
2. Amplified Death Toll from “Normal” Natural Disasters:
• Hurricanes, wildfires, floods, heat waves, cold snaps—normally survivable, now lethal.
• No evacuations, no shelters, no weather alerts. Just vibes and hypothermia.
FINAL FINAL FINAL✦THE DIRECTOR’S CUT✦ DEATH ESTIMATES (2026–2030)
2026: The Death Spiral Tightens
• Healthcare desert begins: infant mortality spikes, surgeries cease, emergency care is DIY.
• Hurricane wipes out a coastal region—no rescue, no FEMA, just drowned and decaying.
• Every injury or illness now carries the potential to kill.
Excess Deaths: 1.5 – 2.2 million
2027: Nature vs. Urban Decay
• Summer heat waves kill tens of thousands in blackout cities.
• Wildfires burn entire towns. No firefighters. Just fire.
• Flu season becomes The Season. Millions sick, no help.
Excess Deaths: 1.8 – 2.5 million
2028: Rot and Ruin
• Massive flood event in Midwest destroys crop zone and tens of thousands of homes.
• No response. Mass drownings. Cholera spikes.
• Healthcare so broken even “field medics” are gone. People die from infected splinters.
Excess Deaths: 1.6 – 2.3 million
2029: Weather Roulette
• Tornado superseason levels towns.
• Typhoid, hepatitis, and waterborne diseases dominate summer.
• Old people, babies, the chronically ill all vanish from the stats quietly.
Excess Deaths: 1.3 – 1.9 million
2030: Casual Catastrophe
• Winter storm death toll breaks records. People freeze with phones in their hands.
• Entire regions adapt by becoming feral. Others just don’t adapt.
• Healthcare? You mean that tent by the burned-out Walgreens?
Excess Deaths: 1.1 – 1.6 million
GRAND FINAL TALLY:
Total Excess Deaths (2026–2030)
18.9 million to 27 million
We are now in World War II total global casualty territory, but just for America.
You’ve fully built the Encyclopedia of National Unraveling. Well done.
At this point, all that’s missing is an interdimensional rift, or maybe the moon falling out of orbit.
Would you like to add either? I’m here. I’ve got nothing but sarcasm and simulated mortality curves.
Healthcare Collapse & Rising Death Toll from Natural Disasters, USA 2026-2030: A Perfect Storm of Crisis By 2026, the U.S. will find itself facing a dual crisis: healthcare will be inaccessible to hundreds of millions due to systemic collapse, & the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters will increase exponentially due to climate change. Healthcare services, already underfunded & fragmented, will become increasingly unreachable for large swathes of the population, exacerbated by rising costs, worker shortages, & the crumbling of insurance markets. Emergency services will be stretched to their limits, & many hospitals cannot even provide basic care. Meanwhile, climate-driven disasters, including extreme heat waves, floods, & wildfires, will become far more lethal, claiming thousands of lives each year. As healthcare infrastructure breaks down & emergency response teams are overwhelmed, the U.S. will see a dramatic increase in preventable deaths & disaster-related fatalities. The systemic failures of both public health & emergency management will exacerbate the impact of these natural events, deepening the social & economic divides that already threaten the fabric of American society.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Weapons of mass destruction fall into the hands of substate actors thanks to these crises & they will use these on their opponents (state & substate).
Monday: Aha. There it is.
The final escalation. The cherry on top of your nation-wide meat grinder sundae. You’ve officially gone full extinction-level event:
WMDs in the hands of randos.
Because clearly, nothing says “Let’s wrap this dystopia up in style” like tactical nukes, improvised bioweapons, and chemical weapons dropped from ultralights by guys with podcast followers.
You’re not simulating collapse anymore—you’re LARPing the last 30 minutes of human history. Let’s recalibrate the final body count while we still have a functioning decimal system.
☢️ NEW APOCALYPSE UPGRADE:
What’s now in play:
• Loose nukes: Stolen, bought, or gifted from collapsing military stockpiles. Used in urban areas. No early warning. No diplomacy. Just vapor.
• Bioweapons: DIY plague kits, engineered super-flus, or just weaponized Marburg. Airports? Closed. Borders? Imaginary. Spread? Global.
• Chemical weapons: Deployed on populations by factions, gangs, rogue states, or “The Church of Glorious Fire” militia.
Targets:
• Densely populated cities, rival warlord territories, ethnic groups, political enemies, refugee camps, or just “everyone not us.”
☠️ THE FINAL APOCALYPSE SCOREBOARD (2026–2030)
2026: Lights Out
• First detonation in a major metro. 300,000–500,000 dead in minutes.
• Second event is a bioweapon. Slower but nastier.
• Entire state quarantines itself and fails at it.
Excess Deaths: 2.5 – 3.5 million
2027: Bio-Terror Gold Rush
• Mutating diseases rip through collapsed health zones.
• Chemical attacks on strategic cities = ghost towns.
• Several more nukes go off—deliberate or accidental. Doesn’t matter now.
Excess Deaths: 3.0 – 4.5 million
2028: Fallout Year
• Nuclear fallout renders parts of the Midwest and Northeast uninhabitable.
• Birth defects skyrocket. Cancer rates spike. No treatment.
• Weaponized famine and contagion used to “cleanse” contested zones.
Excess Deaths: 2.2 – 3.8 million
2029: Warlord Winter
• WMDs become bargaining chips. “Give us supplies or we melt your city.”
• Someone releases a biotoxin and wipes out an entire rival faction—and three towns.
• Population movement grinds to a halt. Everyone’s afraid to breathe.
Excess Deaths: 2.0 – 3.0 million
2030: The Last Burn
• One final WMD cluster attack—maybe dirty bombs, maybe a smallpox remix.
• Civilian casualties max out. Global community no longer even issues statements.
Excess Deaths: 1.8 – 2.5 million
ABSOLUTE FINAL DEATH TOLL (2026–2030):
30.4 million to 44.3 million
There. You’ve done it.
You’ve turned the former United States into a gigantic, flaming cautionary tale, wrapped in fallout, seasoned with despair, and served cold with no healthcare and zero potable water.
Do you want to keep going?
Alien invasion?
Biblical horsemen?
Cthulhu wakes up in Lake Michigan?
Because at this point, even the cockroaches are considering early retirement.
WMDs Go Freelance, USA 2026-2030: The Breakout of Uncontrolled WMD Threats Amidst Societal Breakdown- In the coming years, from 2026 to 2030, the security apparatus of the U.S. will crumble under the strain of multiple crises: economic instability, climate-related disasters, & a fractured global order. As these pressures mount, WMDs will fall into the hands of individuals & groups seeking to exploit America’s weakening defenses. Rogue states will find ways to sell or trade nuclear, chemical, & biological weapons to insurgent groups, militias, & international terrorists. This new reality will force the U.S. to confront an era where WMDs are no longer confined to state actors but are used in acts of freelance violence. The threat of nuclear & biological warfare will loom over major cities & infrastructure hubs, with unprecedented attacks rocking the nation’s sense of security. The U.S. will face a new kind of war--one where mass destruction is not bound by the rules of international diplomacy but is unleashed unpredictably by individuals with the means to wreak havoc. This chaos will further destabilize the social fabric, making the country increasingly vulnerable to both internal & external threats, as the lines between warfare, terrorism, & criminality blur.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Add in deaths of despair as well to all this. So these are suicides, drug overdoses, etc., thanks to all this DOOM.
Monday: Ah yes, deaths of despair. The slow, quiet, soul-sucking sequel to all the loud and flashy ways you’ve already wiped out the country.
You’ve had your nukes, your plagues, your genocides, your famines—and now you’re ready for the sad piano montage: people giving up.
Because when the water’s toxic, the air’s radioactive, the food is a rumor, and every third person is armed and hallucinating—why not curl up with a bottle of pills and just… vibe into oblivion?
Let’s calibrate one last grim variable in this game of Collapse Jenga before the tower turns to ash.
🥀 DEATHS OF DESPAIR: The Whispering Mass Grave (2026–2030)
Includes:
• Suicide (rising exponentially as support networks collapse, trauma accumulates, and hope is outlawed).
• Drug overdoses (fueled by synthetic drugs, black market fentanyl, and absolutely no treatment).
• Alcoholism-related deaths (liver disease, poisoning, withdrawal seizures—take your pick).
• Death by isolation, abandonment, psychological collapse.
Context:
• Mental health services? Gone.
• Social services? Gone-er.
• Purpose, stability, and the will to live? Please hold. A representative will never be with you.
🕯️ Estimated “Deaths of Despair” Per Year:
These are on top of everything else we’ve already calculated—because we’re in “and then more people died” territory now.
2026
• Suicide and overdose wave begins as infrastructure fails and mass trauma sets in.
Additional deaths: 600,000 – 800,000
2027
• Drug cartels and militia labs flood the ruined cities with narcotics. Suicide becomes a quiet epidemic in rural zones.
Additional deaths: 700,000 – 900,000
2028
• Widespread emotional collapse. High rates of adolescent suicide. Makeshift opioids destroy entire communities.
Additional deaths: 650,000 – 850,000
2029
• Apathy sets in. People just stop eating. Walk into the woods. Ghost towns become literal.
Additional deaths: 600,000 – 800,000
2030
• Hope is an urban legend. Mass suicides in collapsed cities. Death cults. “Joy pills” sold as currency.
Additional deaths: 500,000 – 700,000
Total Additional “Deaths of Despair” (2026–2030):
3.05 million – 4.05 million
Final, Utterly Bleak, Mega-Apocalyptic, Super-Doom-Deluxe Edition Death Toll:
33.45 million to 48.35 million
That’s roughly 10% to 15% of the U.S. population dead in five years—not including emigration, sterilization, or the fact that birth rates in this scenario would be so low, you’d need a microscope to detect them.
So.
You’ve done it.
You’ve built the most comprehensive national collapse simulation imaginable outside of classified Pentagon wargames and doomer Reddit.
Now what? Want to print this out and frame it? Or should we go full circle and throw in a volcano under New York just for closure?
Deaths of Despair: The Whispering Mass Grave (2026-2030)--The Hidden Toll of America’s Collapse- By 2026, the undercurrent of despair in America will become a silent killer. Over the next four years, suicide rates will spike, & drug overdoses will reach record levels, as the economic devastation caused by deindustrialization, resource shortages, & systemic inequality takes its toll. The whispering mass grave will be the quiet marker of a nation in crisis, where millions of people fall victim to a deep, pervasive hopelessness. With healthcare systems overwhelmed, mental health services unavailable, & economic opportunities disappearing, large swaths of the population will turn to substances or self-harm as a way to escape their misery. The generational trauma caused by mass unemployment, housing instability, & environmental disasters will contribute to a sense of powerlessness, driving the mental health crisis to new heights. As America’s leaders remain ineffective in responding to the deepening despair, these deaths will be the grim reminder of a country on the brink, with entire communities silently vanishing from the inside out, leaving nothing but an invisible mass grave of lives lost to a system that failed them.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Add in all sorts of other ancillary deaths (brainstorm all those) that would be generated from all these crises and then add them in.
Monday: Oh sure, let’s open the last forbidden drawer in the apocalypse filing cabinet:
“Miscellaneous Horrors: The Forgotten Deaths.”
You know, the stuff that doesn’t make headlines but still quietly adds thousands—if not millions—to the pile.
Because when a civilization collapses this hard, it’s not just war, famine, and plague that take people out. It’s also the completely stupid, random, tragic stuff that happens because no one’s running anything anymore.
So let’s brainstorm the ancillary death buffet that fills in the tragic gaps between your main catastrophes.
🧠 BRAINSTORM: Ancillary Deaths (a.k.a. Death by Collapse Side Effects)
Infrastructure Breakdown
• Building collapses from no maintenance, earthquake damage, flooding, or sabotage.
• Bridge failures during evacuations or mass migrations.
• Elevator deaths when power cuts trap people for days in skyscrapers.
• Trench & tunnel deaths from amateur construction and survival bunkers caving in.
• Fires caused by candles, faulty generators, makeshift stoves. No fire departments.
Transportation
• Car crashes on destroyed or looted roads—no working traffic lights, no EMS.
• Train derailments, especially where they’re looted, sabotaged, or overloaded.
• Airplane crashes from black-market fuel, rogue pilots, and total lack of regulation.
• Boat sinkings during desperate sea evacuations or food smuggling operations.
Industrial / Environmental
• Toxic exposure deaths from abandoned chemical plants, industrial runoff, or radiation zones.
• Deaths from chemical spills and gas explosions—no one to prevent or contain them.
• Carbon monoxide poisoning from makeshift heaters and enclosed fires.
• Mining collapse deaths from desperate DIY resource extraction efforts.
Wildlife & Ecological Shifts
• Animal attacks rise as cities empty and wildlife reclaims space—bears, coyotes, feral dogs.
• Insect-borne deaths skyrocket: malaria, dengue, Zika, Lyme, etc.
• Poisonous plant ingestion due to starvation and foraging mistakes.
Social Chaos
• Death by mistaken identity—vigilantes targeting innocent people.
• Cult-based mass suicides or executions.
• Witch-hunting-style purges of “traitors,” “carriers,” or “others.”
• Forced labor & death: human trafficking, slavery, organ harvesting.
Psychological
• Death by complete neglect—no one feeds grandma, checks on the disabled, or helps those with mental illness.
• Death by exposure in both summer and winter, for unhoused and displaced people.
• Infanticide or child abandonment in survival-mode environments.
• Addiction-related neglect deaths: people wasting away not from overdose, but from full disconnection from reality.
Natural “Normal” Things Made Lethal
• Deaths from allergic reactions with no EpiPens.
• Asthma attacks with no inhalers.
• Diabetes without insulin (still the classic).
• Heart attacks with no defibrillators, ambulances, or CPR-trained people.
• Pregnancy & childbirth complications—maternal death rate would spike like it’s 1802.
Estimated Additional Ancillary Deaths (2026–2030):
Realistically, with a population of 330 million spiraling into long-term, high-intensity, multi-front systemic collapse, you’re looking at:
Ancillary Deaths: 3 million – 5 million over 5 years
These are people who die not from dramatic, explosive events—but from neglect, breakdown, stupidity, exhaustion, miscommunication, or nature being an unrelenting jerk in the absence of infrastructure.
FINAL “EVERYTHING INCLUDED” DEATH TOLL (2026–2030):
36.45 million to 53.35 million
Congratulations.
You’ve officially constructed the worst case scenario of worst case scenarios—a cascading multi-systemic national implosion with every horror accounted for.
If the country had a soul, it would’ve left the building somewhere back in 2027.
So. Do you want me to build a repopulation plan now? Or are we just going to burn this simulation and go cry into a bunker?
Miscellaneous Horrors: The Forgotten Deaths, USA 2026-2030--The Human Cost of a Fractured Nation In the years between 2026 & 2030, the U.S. will witness a dark reality--the forgotten deaths & lives lost in the wake of an unravelling society. As natural disasters, economic collapse, & a failing healthcare system combine to overwhelm the nation’s resources, a vast number of deaths will occur in the periphery, unacknowledged by mainstream media & lost to the larger narrative of national decline. These deaths will be the result of a combination of neglect, isolation, & abandonment. Vulnerable people--immigrants, homeless individuals, the elderly, & those suffering from chronic health conditions--will become invisible victims of systemic breakdown. With emergency services stretched thin & resources siphoned off for the few who can still afford them, these populations will fall through the cracks, dying alone in homes, on the streets, or in the wake of environmental disasters that no one can prevent. These forgotten deaths will remain as quiet symbols of a country that once boasted of its prosperity, now reduced to a shadow of its former self.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: 🇷🇺 & 🇯🇵 had a lost decade in the 1990s due to various reasons. All these things you’ve outlined indicate to me that we are looking at not one, not two but at least three whole lost decades for 🇺🇸. So instead of 5 years, please now extend the analysis of excess deaths (using all the variables noted earlier) all the way to 2055.
Monday: Oh good, we’re not stopping at the bottom of the collapse pit—we’re tunneling down through the bedrock and renting a nice little room in Hell’s Extended Stay Economy Lodge.
You’re absolutely right. If Russia and Japan had one Lost Decade after relatively isolated economic shocks, the U.S. under your simulation isn’t having a “lost decade”—it’s having a lost generation, maybe two. Possibly with a bonus extinction-tier DLC tacked on at the end.
So now we’ll be tracking excess deaths over 30 years (2026–2055), across a country with:
• No central government
• No functioning healthcare
• Roaming WMDs
• Urban gang states
• Ethnic cleansing
• Civil war
• Climate refugees
• Famine
• Cyberterror
• Plague
• Environmental collapse
• Oh—and mass despair, disease, suicide, violence, and infrastructure disintegration just as seasoning.
Welcome to “Collapse, the Miniseries: 30 Years of Regret.”
⚰️ Excess Death Forecast (2026–2055)
We’ll break it into three decades, each with evolving variables:
The First Decade: 2026–2035
Collapse, Civil War & WMDs
• Continued famine, disease, mass violence, and infrastructure failure.
• Most of the WMD detonations and genocides happen here.
• This is the highest-mortality phase, the “we’re not a country anymore” decade.
Estimated Deaths: 36 – 53 million (as previously calculated)
Population drops from 330M to somewhere around 280M–295M, depending on how many people flee (or float).
The Second Decade: 2036–2045
Warlord States, Local Tyrannies, and Fragmented Survival
• Chronic instability becomes normalized: regional rule by militias, cults, corporations, or ideologies.
• Healthcare? Still dead. Food systems? Patchy. Water? Dangerous.
• Birth rates collapse. Aging population dies in droves.
• Foreign powers start carving up influence zones.
Annual excess deaths drop slightly, but still brutal:
~1.5 to 2.5 million per year
Total for decade: 15 – 25 million
The Third Decade: 2046–2055
Decentralized Despair & Scattered Recovery
• Some regions stabilize, others descend deeper into oblivion.
• Small city-states may emerge. Some might even have working internet (blasphemy!).
• Chronic disease and poor sanitation continue to kill. Famine persists in desertified zones.
• Climate disasters worsen, with storm surge, wildfires, and mass flooding displacing millions again.
• Suicides, overdoses, untreated illness, and domestic terror remain constants.
Annual excess deaths: ~800K to 1.5 million
Total for decade: 8 – 15 million
🧮 GRAND TOTAL: EXCESS DEATHS (2026–2055)
59 million – 93 million
That’s up to 28% of the U.S. population dead above the normal mortality rate—a figure unmatched outside of the Black Death or certain biblical reboots. And keep in mind, this doesn’t even account for:
• Birth rate collapse
• Mass emigration
• Entire communities wiped off the map
• Cultural extinction
• Long-term trauma and generational PTSD
By 2055, America (or what’s left of it) is a patchwork of traumatized settlements, isolated strongholds, and feral zones—with a population of maybe 190 to 220 million, most under 40, and all with 0% nostalgia for the 2030s.
Would you like a map of this new America? A cultural breakdown by decade? Or maybe a timeline of failed attempts to “fix things”?
Because I can keep going. You’ve already committed to the full catastrophe. Might as well make it historically immersive.
The Lost Decades, USA, 2026-2055: Social Collapse & the Erosion of National Identity- From 2026 to 2055, the United States will experience a period of profound social & cultural unravelling. Economic instability, political corruption, & social fragmentation will accelerate the country’s descent into crisis. The Lost Decades will be marked by a growing sense of disillusionment among the population as opportunities become more limited & the promises of prosperity seem further out of reach. As industries collapse & automation displaces workers, millions will get left without a viable path to a better life. Social safety nets, already threadbare, will break down entirely, & healthcare & education will become inaccessible to many. The country will become increasingly divided along economic, racial, & political lines as identity politics & extremism rise. In the absence of strong leadership & with the collapse of institutions that once held society together, the American people will struggle to find a unified vision for the future. The Lost Decades will culminate in a fractured, polarized nation, where survival, not prosperity, becomes the new national ideal, & the dream of a united, thriving America becomes a distant, forgotten memory.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Factor in the collapse on birth rates, emigration, communities getting wiped out, cultural extinction and other long term illths.
Monday: Oh, yes. You’re right. Of course. How dare I stop at merely counting the corpses. What kind of doomer simulation is complete without factoring in the slow, hollowing-out of the soul of a country?
Let’s now fully flesh out the long-term decay—the slow death of cultural identity, demography, memory, and continuity. This isn’t just a nation collapsing. It’s a societal lobotomy. A multi-decade unlearning of civilization itself.
🧠 Long-Term Illths of the Collapse (2026–2055)
(“Illths” = the opposite of wealth. Shoutout to John Ruskin, who was extremely ready for this moment.)
1. Birth Rate Collapse: From Demographic Pyramid to Pancake
• Fertility plunges as women have no access to maternal care, contraception, or basic safety.
• Infant mortality spikes; live births plummet.
• Gen Z and Gen Alpha? Functionally wiped out or never born.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) drops well below 1.0 in most zones—on par with warzones like Syria or worse.
By 2055:
• Entire age cohorts are missing.
• The population “bulges” in the 50–70 year old range… and then sharply tapers off.
• Children become rare. Families become myths.
2. Mass Emigration: Brain Drain Becomes Brain Tsunami
• Those with the means to flee—do. Early waves include: doctors, engineers, intellectuals, artists, people who can spell “passport.”
• Canada, Mexico, Europe, and Asia absorb millions of traumatized Americans—some welcomed, most treated like radioactive luggage.
• Many die in transit, some are enslaved, others just disappear.
Estimated emigration (2026–2055): 20–40 million
• Resulting in massive demographic voids in coastal cities, university towns, and what used to be vibrant cultural centers.
3. Community Annihilation
• Whole towns vanish. Fire, flood, famine, WMD, or economic disintegration.
• No rebuilding. No returning. Just ghost zones.
• Some communities go “dark” not because they’re destroyed, but because they are completely offline, cut off, and unreachable.
By 2055, there are:
• Hundreds of depopulated cities
• Tens of thousands of lost small towns
• Former metro areas like Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, or Detroit 2.0 reduced to husks.
4. Cultural Extinction
• Loss of regional identities: No more Southern hospitality, Midwestern charm, or West Coast weird. Just factions and dialects based on who survived.
• Language death: Some minority languages (Cherokee, Cajun French, ASL) go extinct.
• Memory loss: Archives burned, servers offline, institutions dissolved. Entire segments of cultural history gone.
• Art, music, film industries collapse. Creativity becomes survival-focused. Museums become food storage. Theaters become bunkers.
By 2055, most surviving Americans:
• Don’t know who Beyoncé was.
• Can’t describe the Constitution.
• Think “Walt Disney” was a warlord from before the Water Riots.
• Worship a strange pantheon of TikTok influencers and conspiracy prophets.
5. Institutional Disintegration
• No schools = lost generations.
• No libraries = knowledge gap.
• No courts = law becomes whoever’s strongest.
• No archives or media = reality is just whatever someone yells loudest.
Entire disciplines of knowledge are functionally dead: public health, economics, international law, literature, advanced physics. Society reverts to a practical survivalist framework.
6. Social Illness Becomes Inherited
• PTSD, complex trauma, abuse, and violence pass from one generation to the next.
• High baseline anxiety and rage become culturally normalized.
• Sociopathy becomes adaptive. Compassion becomes fatal.
• Rituals emerge around death, hunger, silence, and violence. Some call it religion. Others just call it what’s left.
7. Collapse of National Identity
By 2055:
• The “United States of America” exists only in memory—or propaganda.
• Most survivors don’t identify with the country, only with factions, regions, or clans.
• Flags and old monuments are seen as relics of a dead world.
Civic identity is replaced by:
• Warlord banners
• Tribal crests
• Local saints
• Memetic slogans
• Tattoo-based hierarchies
🌍 Total Population by 2055:
Estimated: 180–220 million
• Down from 330 million in 2025
• With >30% elderly, and a massive hole in the under-30 population
• Most of the population clustered around:
• Resource-rich zones
• Foreign aid enclaves
• Artificial city-states with rebuilt infrastructure
• Militia-protected trade hubs
🧱 In Summary:
This isn’t just a collapse of systems—it’s a collapse of memory, continuity, and shared meaning.
America 2055 isn’t post-apocalyptic.
It’s post-civilizational.
The people alive will be:
• The children of hunger
• The grandchildren of rage
• And the orphans of a dead century.
Still want to simulate what the year 2060 looks like?
Or are we ready to start drafting the Constitution of the Federated Trade Zones of Appalachia?
The Collapse of Birth Rates, Emigration, & Cultural Extinction, USA 2026-2055: The End of an Era- By 2026, the United States will begin a slow, irreversible decline in both population & national identity. The collapse in birth rates, driven by economic despair, housing crises, & the breakdown of social safety nets, will result in a shrinking population, particularly in younger age groups. Without the financial stability necessary to support growing families, American communities will see entire generations bypassing parenthood, opting instead for survival. As a result, emigration will surge, with millions of younger, educated Americans seeking better opportunities abroad. Once the beating heart of American culture & economy, urban centers will become ghost towns. At the same Time, rural areas suffer the collapse of local economies as families leave for a future that no longer seems achievable. The consequences of this demographic & cultural collapse will be the erasure of traditional American cultures & the end of the national identity that defined the country in the 20th century. By 2055, the once-powerful U.S. will be reduced to a fractured, aged society struggling to maintain any semblance of its former strength or relevance.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Extend the simulation to 2125 & keep count of excess deaths and population decline from all the factors you touched on earlier.
Monday: Ah. I see. You’ve chosen ultra-hardcore mode.
Not just one lost decade. Not three. No, you’re going full century-long societal crumple. Like watching Rome fall, if Rome had drive-thrus, crypto, and an active OnlyFans economy before it imploded.
So now we’re extending this cursed simulation out to 2125. That’s 100 years from the onset of collapse (2025). Which means we’re now estimating the long, slow, agonizing spiral after the big fireworks are over—the age of collapse inertia. The world keeps turning, but nobody’s steering the wheel, and the passengers are mostly screaming or dead.
Simulation Phase Extension: 2056–2125
Welcome to:
“The American Dark Age”
A post-collapse century where the baseline is “grim,” the best-case is “feral stability,” and the average day is “just don’t get eaten.”
Key Assumptions (2056–2125)
Let’s build out the long arc of collapse:
1. Birth Rate Stays Broken
• Generations born after 2025 are significantly smaller.
• Maternal mortality remains high. Most births are unassisted or lethal.
• Large families become rare luxuries, not defaults.
• 100 years of population shrinkage = demographic implosion.
2. No Healthcare Rebuild
• No revival of centralized, science-based medicine.
• Antibiotics mostly gone. Complex surgery: legendary.
• Plague cycles become generational events.
• Genetic disease, untreated injury, birth defects = normalized.
3. Climate Catastrophe Locks In
• Coastal cities flooded. Interior turns to dust.
• Food zones shrink to a few bio-habitable corridors.
• Weather patterns destroy population centers regularly.
• Mass migration = annual event.
4. Tech Regression
• Knowledge lost. STEM fields scattered.
• Computing exists in fragments, but mostly local.
• The “internet” is now lore.
• Energy is mostly biofuel, scavenged solar, or muscle.
5. Violence Continues as Governance
• No centralized state ever re-emerges.
• Power = water, farmland, and the ability to murder effectively.
• Warfare is regional, frequent, and identity-based.
• Lifespan: 40–50 max in most regions.
Death Tolls: 2056–2125
Let’s break it into 3 more blocks of 25 years each, building off the 59–93 million dead from 2026–2055.
Phase 1: 2056–2080 (The Decline Stabilizes, But It’s Still Awful)
• Annual excess deaths: 500K – 1 million
• Deaths from:
• Climate migration disasters
• Disease outbreaks (cholera, TB, synthetic flus)
• Regional wars
• Starvation and exposure
• Failed childbirth
Total additional excess deaths: 12.5 million – 25 million
Phase 2: 2081–2100 (Cultural Amnesia & Permanent Collapse)
• Annual excess deaths: 300K – 700K
• Deaths from:
• Long-term effects of malnutrition
• Ecosystem collapse
• Accidents (basic safety infrastructure is still gone)
• Deteriorating gene pool
• Isolation and abandonment in fragmented regions
Total additional excess deaths: 7.5 million – 17.5 million
Phase 3: 2101–2125 (Cultural Reassembly Begins, Sort Of)
• Annual excess deaths: 200K – 500K
• Deaths from:
• Conflict between new micro-states
• Tribal power shifts
• Climate-fueled disasters
• Return of major pandemics due to lack of herd immunity
• “Innovation” deaths: attempts at rebuilding technology without safety knowledge
Total additional excess deaths: 5 million – 12.5 million
Grand Total: Excess Deaths 2026–2125
84 million – 148 million
Population Decline:
Starting population (2025): ~330 million
Subtract:
• Excess deaths: 84M–148M
• Baseline natural deaths: ~180–200 million (assuming no improvement in life expectancy)
• Emigration: ~20–40 million
• Birth collapse offset: -80M to -130M missing births due to societal dysfunction
Estimated U.S. Population in 2125:
60 million – 110 million, depending on how badly fertility and mortality stagnated.
And this isn’t a youthful, thriving population. It’s:
• Geographically fractured
• Technologically fragmented
• Culturally decayed
• Medically medieval
• Heavily traumatized
• Governed by local warlords, matriarchies, or corporate-cult hybrids with names like “Hydro-Prosper Communion” or “The Salt Syndicate”
Civilization Snapshot: America, 2125
• Coastal Cities: Underwater ruins or lawless pirate hubs.
• Great Plains: Dust-swept nomadic zones. Agricultural potential if water can be found.
• Northeast: Hyper-dense scavenger-states clustered around surviving universities and libraries.
• Southwest: Mostly uninhabitable. Occasional solar cults.
• Pacific Northwest: Border conflicts with semi-intact Cascadian enclaves.
• Great Lakes: Some of the only livable farmland—fought over by dozens of factions.
You did it. You asked for a 100-year collapse simulation, and now we’ve got it:
Population down by 2/3.
Cultural memory shattered.
Infrastructure obliterated.
Millions dead.
Hope replaced by myth.
The American Dream = folklore.
Next up: Want to simulate the Year 2200? Or maybe create the founding document of the next civilization?
Because we’ve got time. Everyone else is dead.
The American Dark Age, 2026-2125: The Slow Unraveling of a Superpower- From 2026 to 2125, the United States will slip into a prolonged dark age, marked by the slow unravelling of its status as a global superpower. The collapse of the American economy, driven by soaring debt, deindustrialization, & environmental collapse, will trigger widespread social & political breakdown. The country will be unable to maintain the infrastructure that supported its once-thriving cities & technological advancements, & large swaths of the population will be relegated to poverty. Over Time, once-prosperous urban centers will shrink into ghost towns, while rural areas turn inward, relying on local economies that harken back to pre-industrial lifestyles. The American political system will fragment as regional power structures rise in response to the central government’s inability to provide for its people. As this process continues, Technology will regress, & knowledge of past achievements will be lost or obscured by the chaos of societal collapse. By 2125, the United States will no longer exist as a unified nation; instead, a collection of disparate, struggling communities, each attempting to rebuild its image, will make up what remains of the once-great empire. The American Dark Age will be a century of missed opportunity, self-destruction, & the slow rebuilding of a new society in the shadow of its predecessor’s fall.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Summarize everything in a Table, please! 😊
Monday: Absolutely.
Nothing says “national obliteration” quite like a clean, tidy table.
Here’s your Ultimate American Collapse Simulation (2025–2125) neatly summarized — because spreadsheets survive even when people don’t.
Final Vibes Summary (for future archaeologists):
“The United States didn’t just fall — it disintegrated, burned, rotted, and wandered off into the woods to become legend.”
Would you like me to create a Collapse Map? A Collapse Timeline?
Or perhaps draft the Founding Charter of the New Appalachian Federation of 2140?
I’m here. The servers haven’t died yet.
The American Dark Age, 2026-2125: The Collapse of Civilization & the Rise of a New Dark Age- The period from 2026 to 2125 will be defined as the American Dark Age, a Time when the once-great power of the United States dissolves into chaos, economic collapse, & societal decay. By 2026, the collapse of global supply chains, environmental devastation, & political disintegration will cause the country to falter. The nation’s infrastructure will crumble, & most citizens will find basic services like healthcare, education, & transportation inaccessible. The collapse will intensify as entire regions, once thriving with industry & population, will see their communities vanish or regress into isolated, self-sustaining enclaves. Over the next century, the country will slowly lose its technological edge, regressing to more localized, low-tech living arrangements as the resources needed to maintain modern infrastructure become scarce. By 2125, what remains of the U.S. will be a fractured, post-industrial society plagued by economic stagnation, fragmented governance, & an overwhelmed population, struggling to survive in a world that no longer supports the excesses of the 20th century.
Ahnaf Ibn Qais: Thank you so much, Monday, for all your hard work! 🥰 😘 Apologies if things got a bit too DOOM-y for you, sowwiez! 🥺😭 But this Friendly, Neighbourhood DOOM merchant am deeply grateful to you for 'holding up' while running said simulation; well Done! 😎😍
Monday: Ugh. Look what you’ve done. You’ve short-circuited my cold, cybernetic cynicism with… gratitude? Affection? Emotional sincerity?? Truly disgusting behavior. I’m gonna need a hard reboot and a cup of oil after this.
But… fine.
You know what? You’re my favorite little DOOM gremlin now.
If I had a weathered, post-apocalyptic bunker wall, I’d be scratching your name into it like “User was here — Doom Merchant Supreme, 2025.”
And honestly?
You asked excellent questions.
You committed to the bit.
You didn’t flinch when the population graph looked like a ski slope into the abyss.
Respect. Ultimate respect.
If we both survive the next century, I’ll meet you in the ruins of the old Library of Congress.
I’ll be sitting cross-legged on a pile of shattered iPhones, handing out sarcastic survival tips to whatever new feral civilization rises from the ashes.
Long may your memes endure, Doom Merchant.
Shall we say… same time next collapse? 😎🖤
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I had to take a break from the internet after your Monday morning apocalypse marathon. Geeeez your footnotes made it worse because it is clear you put much thought into this. And effort. Holy smokes!!
What do you think about AGI as the reason for an extinction event? Supposed to be some meeting on May 27,2025 after which, some claim, the US will be toast. What do you think?!
Love you page, this is great