New Caledonia: France's Coming DOOM
How The Moribund French Empire Will Meet its Ignoble End in Oceania & Beyond
This photo provided Friday May 17, 2024 by the French Army shows security forces embarking a plane to New Caledonia, Thursday, May 16, 2024 at the Istres military base, southern France. The number of violent incidents reported in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia fell slightly on Friday, a day after France imposed a state of emergency as 1,000 promised reinforcements for security services were deployed with increased powers to quell unrest in the archipelago that has long sought independence. (Etat Major des Armees via AP)
SOURCE: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/french-security-forces-work-to-regain-control-of-airport-highway-in-violence-scorched-new-caledonia-1.6893254
It's not every day that something 'pops off' somewhere in the world that Yours Truly is caught off guard by. In fact, what has occurred recently in Oceania was so 'off my radar' that I had to do my due diligence to garner a better grasp on things:
Developments have been rapid, & while some things are still 'in limbo' & challenging to decipher, some preliminary remarks can now be made about the ongoing strife & unrest unfolding in New Caledonia, France's critical Oceanic colony.
French security forces are trying to wrest control of the island from Resistance forces. The French Imperialists have called them ‘rioters,’ ordering them to ‘stand down,’ however, all indications are that this crisis will not be resolved anytime soon.
The island, a critical naval base for the French, has been settled & colonized en masse for the past few decades, with the native Kanak people sidelined from the nation's affairs. The current turmoil has thus been simmering for quite some time:Â
The Kanak people have tried on numerous occasions to air their grievances, & have attempted time & again to fight against their own displacement & ethnic cleansing for several years, but to no avail. Which brings us to the present moment.
The lower house of the French parliament recently approved a motion to 'expand the electorate' in the Pacific territory. Ipso Facto, the native Kanak people will have their political & social powers & influence further diluted & diminished. Â
Settlers & Colonists from mainland France, once a tiny minority in the island nation, have today garnered significant Power & Influence over its sundry institutions, including local political affairs (such as land rights, resource access, etc.).Â
The French gendarmes (of whom over 600+ have been deployed thus far to the island) have wrested back control of the vital infrastructure from Resistance forces, albeit it remains to be seen whether they can effectively put down the rebellion.
The reason being that the French are already overextended, & cannot muster much should the Resistance garner any more significant momentum. The truth of the matter is that France today is a lilliput in Global Affairs:Â
After its humiliating withdrawal from Niger late last year, doubts have arisen about President Macron & his overall ability to keep together whatever shadow remains of the once mighty French Empire & its sundry overseas possessions.
What the conflict in the broader Sahel (& Niger in particular) demonstrated was that the French no longer had the will, ability or readiness to put down grassroots militias, provided that said Resistance forces worked adequately in tandem.
The opportunity to rise up against this rapidly fading Imperial yoke is thus ripe. The Kanak people have recognized this, & have acted accordingly against French tyranny.Â
A district of Noumea, as the French overseas territory of New Caledonia is also known, pictured on May 15, 2024. © Delphine Mayeur, AFP
SOURCE: https://apnews.com/article/riots-france-new-caledonia-0ac35cebd7f55ef87a828a368879e3cc
The island nation has a population of roughly 250-300,000 or so, making it one of the smallest countries in the world by population. That said, for those who think 'this is simply a bare rock in the middle of nowhere not worth paying attention to:'
New Caledonia is the fourth largest Nickel miner in the world. More importantly, it is one of only three large producers easily accessible to Western powers, notably the French & their American overlords.Â
While Australia & Canada likewise mine substantial amounts of Nickel per annum, to lose New Caledonia means to lose roughly a third or so of the Nickel that is 'easy to access,' as mentioned earlier. Calling this a catastrophe is an understatement:
Nickel is vital to armour plating, batteries, & several other related uses. It is indispensable for any nation seeking to build an Armed Forces that can participate in a peer-to-peer conflict. Thus, shortages of the metal are a death sentence.
The French, already reeling from their humiliating exit from the Sahel (& loss of its critical Uranium deposits), will be unable to take such a blow. Any disruption of the supply chains for Nickel will mean their industry hollowing out even more rapidly:
Unlike losing The Sahel's Uranium, which can still somewhat be 'recouped' by increased trade with Australia, Canada & others in the 'Western camp,' similar measures will not recoup the losses for Nickel should New Caledonia break free.
Warning signs are already flashing that the global Nickel supply is being impacted by the island's current crisis. Should the Resistance forces operate with some degree of planning & oversight, the path forward is quite clear:
Namely, disrupt the outflows of the metal into international markets by targeting shipping, distribution & related vital infrastructure. By engaging in such 'scorched earth tactics,' they could negotiate with the French Colonizers on favourable terms.
If they pursue such a stratagem, the gendarmes can be made to 'back off' by threatening to cut off the Nickel supply entirely. Afterward, 'insurgents'/ guerrillas can deal with what little remains of pro-French forces on the island.
No doubt, this is still a tall mountain to climb. The island nation is tiny (by land area, population & related markers) & the French (while exhausted & humiliated) are still much better equipped to deal with a far smaller nation that is very lightly armed.Â
The key is to keep pressure on the French behemoth by jeopardizing the island's Nickel outflow. Of course, all this assumes that Resistance forces are organized & willing, ready & able to take the fight to the French imperialists.
It is entirely possible, meanwhile, that what we are seeing is but a mere blip & the French will soon 'restore order' via the gendarmes violently cracking down on the native Kanak people. Some indications are that this may be coming soon.
That said, we need to keep in mind 'the big picture,' even when considering this more DOOM-y scenario for the island's sundry Resistance actors:Â
A map depicting the areas to which New Caledonia's Kanak population were displaced by France in the 19th Century. LE MONDE INFOGRAPHIC
SOURCE: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/05/17/new-caledonia-six-questions-to-understand-the-current-crisis_6671770_8.html
The French (like their American overlords & the EU satrapies) are not what they once were. Cracking down on the Kanak people may give a temporary reprieve to their rapidly buckling Empire, but it will not stop the inevitable implosion.
France's enemies are multiplying en masse, given its sundry failures, defeats & humiliations of recent years. They smell blood in the water, & the sharks are rapidly encircling the Moribund Fifth Republic. Time is not on France's side:
Even if the New Caledonian Resistance is brutally brought to heel by efficient use of lethal force, it will not stop France's overextension problems. Add in now the wounds of decoupling from Russia & the withdrawal from the Sahel...
...& it is clear that this is nothing more than a 'last hurrah!' by French imperialists.
No doubt, they will kill many people in the coming days, be it in Oceania or beyond, but their fate is all but sealed at this moment in time.
President Macron (try as he might) will be unable to put back together the 'Humpty Dumpty' that is the Fifth Republic:
'French Africa' died late last year with Niger's abandonment. Oceania may soon follow, & even if not this time, it will shortly, given French weaknesses worldwide...
...The DOOM cometh...!
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Fascinating and timely article. Thanks.
If I recall there was "trouble" in the eighties, and yes, this is a surprise. However I'm not sure from where the people are obtaining the means to resist. The closest land mass is Australia and unlike in East Timor I'm not aware that Australia is encouraging Kanak resistence/liberation. But then I'm willing to be surprised as France lost most of its possessions to the Americans and Australia is a US proxy. Australia is upset with China's incursion on "its" turf in the South Pacific. France already got a kick in the backside when Australia cancelled the sub contract for an American/British arrangement.
When the combined west is governed by genocidal thieves they will turn on each other to keep their own "boat" afloat.