Lebanon-Israel: Towards a Wider Regional War
The march towards Full-Scale Conflict against Hezbollah & friends
File photo of Hezbollah's fighters.
Amid continued Israeli-triggered border confrontations between the occupying regime and Hezbollah, a senior official with the Lebanese resistance movement says the group is entirely ready for potential warfare with Tel Aviv.
SOURCE: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/01/31/719249/Lebanon-Hezbollah-ready-war-Israel
“Israel remains a foreign body in this large area, and it always proved that it is unable to coexist with this environment, because the, the scope of the massacres that it has committed does not permit it to coexist.”
~Syed Hassan Nasrallah, Third (& current) Secretary General of Hezbollah.
'Israeli' society is on the brink.
On October 7, 2023, a daring military raid by the Palestinian Joint Operations Room (henceforth, the JOR), of whom Hamas is the largest group, decimated the 'Jewish state' & upended the regional calculus entirely.
The mythology of 'Israeli deterrence' has been irrevocably shattered, with sundry Axis of Resistance members launching attacks from all directions afterward. All indications presently point to these skirmishes & low-intensity strikes escalating further.
Despite mass military censorship of 'facts on the ground,' various 'Israeli outlets' (such as the Jerusalem Post, Haaretz & others) have reported on hospitals overflowing with the dead & wounded. Politicians from all walks of life are in unanimous agreement:
This conflict is the most significant security challenge faced by 'Israel' since the First Arab-Israel War of 1948. At stake for 'Israel' is not merely the safety, security & well-being of its citizenry but the very idea, existence & question of Zionism itself.
Central to said ideology is the belief & conviction that any person of Jewish descent (who can demonstrate said descent in their matrilineal line) can claim a 'right of return' to 'Israel,' regardless of their national origin, residency, etc.
Once they arrive, the state apparatus endows food, clothing, shelter, etc., which rapidly facilitates their integration into Jewish society in a matter of months & years.
This stratagem, whereby Jewish people worldwide can Settle en masse with little friction, is what keeps the 'Jewish state' afloat demographically. Without mass migration of said 'right of return' peoples, the existence of 'Israel' itself is in doubt.
What this War against Palestine has done is shatter irrevocably such arrangements:
War with Lebanon's Hezbollah is, thus, inevitable courtesy of the following:
Hezbollah recently released an infographic summarizing ~120 days of operations from October 8, 2023, to February 4, 2024 (14:00) as part of the Battle of the Al-Aqsa Flood. Militiamen conducted 961 military operations in Total:
Enemy losses: Militiamen have destroyed 56 vehicles (4 logistical vehicles, 28 personnel carriers, 24 tanks), 26 command centers, 178 bunkers and positions in sites and settlements, 500 settlement units, 237 pieces of technical equipment (Visibility shields, electro-optical devices, radars, communications and intelligence devices, jamming devices), 311 personnel positions, two military factories, 25 border walls, 14 artillery emplacements, 2 Iron Dome platforms & 5 drones and planes.
Human losses: Militiamen have inflicted over 2,000 dead and wounded casualties overall. Assuming a 1:3 standard ratio for KIAs to WIAs, this amounts to ~500 Killed & ~1,500 Wounded Unsanitaries for the 'Israeli' side.
Operation Rate: The average number of operations per day is about 8; the highest number of operations thus far has been 26, with the lowest number of operations being two on a single day.
Border sites targeted: Militiamen targeted 22 settlements 72 times, 45 border sites 670 times, 19 rear sites 61 times, and 53 border points 122 times.
Evacuation of Settlers: 5 km radius of the evacuated area, & 43 is the number of announced evacuated settlements. 81,000 is the number of announced displaced settlers, with 230,000 being the 'Actual' Number of displaced settlers.
Documentation: Media personnel have distributed 186 targeting scenes to the Press, with 98 total releases.
Weapons used: The numbers mentioned are the number of shootings/launching (as a military action) and not the number of projectiles or missiles: 323 - Artillery, 244 - Surface-to-surface missiles, 68 - Sniper rifles and machine guns, 40 - Air defence, 23 - Air attacks (drones), 385 - Guided missiles, 85 - Direct weapons,9 - Engineering weapons, & 72 - Various weapons.
SOURCE: Resistance News Network on Telegram. For inquiries, contact RNN_Messaging_Bot at Telegram.
'Israeli' society, pre-October 2023, comprised roughly 9.8+ million people, of whom some ~7.1 million were Jews. Therefore, the fact that 230,000+ people have been internally displaced (courtesy of the War) is a grave matter for its leadership:
The equivalent would be if some 8+ million American citizens got displaced from the Southern Border with Mexico courtesy of widespread Cartel attacks & violence. Essentially, for the 'Israelis,' this is an economic poison pill.
These internally displaced people from the Northern settlements have made it clear to the Netanyahu government that they will not be returning homeward, lest the matter of Hezbollah & friends, & their daily attacks get resolved decisively:
Given the infographic above, one cannot fault them! The attacks are constant, & it makes no sense to live in or around a border growing more kinetic daily.
For this reason, many of the displaced are now seeking new lives down south or emigrating 'Israel' entirely, never to come back, per the report linked earlier.
This state of affairs (i.e., mass emigration &/or mass movement down south) has already cost the 'Israelis' dearly:
Estimates vary, but thus far, the War has cost Israel well over 18 billion USD as of December 2023.
This estimate was before factoring in the full effects of the de facto blockade enacted by Yemen's Ansarallah, who has by now completely shut down the southern port city of Eilat, whose overall Maritime traffic & volumes are down by well over 85%.
Thus, what the 'Israelis' need is a 'return to normal,' & they need it fast. With an economy whose GDP is about ~600 billion USD, the numbers mentioned earlier spell nothing less than complete Economic Implosion in a few months.
Time is not on the side of 'Israel,' & its leaders know this:
Map of Israeli evacuation zones on the borders with Gaza and Lebanon.
SOURCE: https://thecradle.co/articles/israel-loses-control-of-its-borders
Note: The present situation is one where 'Israel,' in losing control of its border regions (with Gazah & Lebanon, respectively), has bred a show of tremendous weakness.
This weakness will only fuel further skirmishes, strikes, etc., into the 'Israeli' interior, as non-state actors are encouraged to overstretch further the various organs of the 'Israeli' state & its government apparatus.
Unless 'Israel' & its collaborators rapidly restore deterrence, it is only a matter of time before the 'pile-on' increases, with perhaps the West Bank starting a Third Intifada, & the Lebanese Amal movement likewise jumping in. How exactly the ‘Israeli’ aura of invincibility can be reacquired post-October 7, 2023, remains unclear!
Should the status quo persist, what remains of the state apparatus & its organs will rapidly evaporate, courtesy of the mass movement of people.
Therefore, the War in Gazah must be quickly 'wrapped up' to deal with this matter of Existential import. The 'Israelis,' however, have been sucked into an unwinnable quagmire, making such a pursuit outright impossible:
The ground offensive into Gazah has, thus far, butchered over 30,000 souls, with over 110,000 total killed, injured or missing.
This barbarism means that the Palestinian JOR will not settle for anything less than the complete unravelling of Zionism:
The people of Gazah are being Ethnically Cleansed, with likewise a Genocide unfolding before the world's eyes in real time.
The Resistance, who are sons born organically from the land, have, therefore, two tandem pursuits:
One, to inflict Revenge on those criminals engaged in said barbarism, & Two, to dismantle the state organs of the Zionist entity.
Anything less, & their legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian people will get crushed forever. The matter is, therefore, of Existential significance, & the JOR has acted accordingly by carrying out pitched guerrilla operations daily against the 'Israelis:'
Merkava Tanks, APCs, Engineering Bulldozers, etc., have been viciously attrited over the past 100+ days of Urban Warfare. This debacle has meant 'higher than normally expected losses' for 'Israeli' war planners, whose options are limited:
Presently, one-third of the Ground Army is garrisoning the border with Lebanon, thus meaning logistics & material overstretch becomes more likely as time passes. As with all multi-front wars, the offensive side must always be mindful of its resources.
Review of the latest military situation in the Gaza Strip after 122 days of fighting, accurate as of February 5, 2024.
SOURCE: https://english.iswnews.com/33226/latest-updates-on-the-gaza-strip-122nd-day-of-fighting-khan-yunis-on-the-verge-of-complete-collapse/
Note: Much of the North of the Gazah Strip has been 're-infiltrated' by the Palestinian JOR courtesy of the fact that the 'Israeli' forces withdrew from significant chunks of Gazah City after intense, highly attritional urban warfare.
Such an outcome was rather apparent (for most keen-eyed analysts) against a primarily Guerrilla Army with access to hundreds of miles of Subterranean tunnels. The reason is quite simple:
Any ground seized overhead must be retained & then pacified, step by step. However, suppose the 'Israelis' do not decisively breach the tunnel networks.
In that case, there will always remain avenues & angles of attack that a Guerrilla Army can leverage to retake the lost ground overhead. Thus far, that is precisely the sequence of events that have transpired!
The plan seems relatively straightforward:
Retreat from Northern Gazah, & then consolidate forces south of the Litani River in preparation for a ground offensive into Southern Lebanon.
In the meantime, continue making forays into Khan Younis & Rafah with the intent of seizing (in part or whole) the Philadelphi Corridor in the future.
The problem is that Resistance forces have demonstrated camaraderie, coordination & temperance in the War, absent in previous conflicts against the Zionist entity:
Be it coordinated rocket attacks on Tel Aviv or Iraqi & Syrian militias assisting Yemen's Ansarallah in their de facto blockade, this War against the 'Israelis' has been one where the Palestinian JOR has found backing from several key sub-state actors:
'Israeli' leadership & its gamble, therefore, on 'putting a lid' on the Gazah Strip front, & bringing it 'down to a simmer,' as it focuses on the Northern front, is DOA:
For one, Resistance forces presently show no signs of breaking their United Front. But second (& more importantly), it makes no sense whatsoever for Resistance leadership to 'turn down the temperature' on 'Israel' at present:
It is fashionable nowadays to think of said people as nothing more than 'bloodthirsty terrorists,' men who merely go about life via their most base impulses, thereby being sub-rational actors who cannot be negotiated or reasoned with.
This superstitious impulse is nothing more than sheer foolishness. Men of the Resistance have significant know-how & capability in both the Arts & Sciences:
Lebanon's Hezbollah & Amal movements can today indigenously build, maintain & arm various SRBM systems across the hilly & mountainous valley systems dotting the Lebanese countryside.
Likewise, the JOR's Diplomatic wing has significant education, training, etc., on matters of mass media, relevant technologies, etc.
'Israel' today is thus squaring off against a superbly rational Resistance network:
Abu Obeida is the spokesperson for the Al-Qassam brigades, the military wing of Hamas. (archive image)
SOURCE: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/abu-obeida-reveals-details-on-confrontations-with-iof-in-gaz
Note: Considered by 'Israeli' Intelligence organs to be one of the key symbols of the Resistance, Mossad & friends have made ample attempts to capture or outright kill the masked man, known by many in the Palestinian diaspora (& beyond) as 'The Voice of the Palestinian Resistance.'
In around two decades since his first appearance, the 'Israelis' have come empty-handed when it comes to said wishes.
Yet this is the reason why, paradoxically, the 'Israelis' have no choice but to go ahead with the Attack anyway.
Given the current Calamities in wider 'Israeli society' touched upon earlier, in tandem with the Resistance's Rational United Front, which will decisively deny & attrit away critical elements of any 'Future Lebanese invasion:'
What 'Israeli' leaders have concluded is that they need to pursue some variant of the old 'escalate to de-escalate'-maxim. Of course, it is also true that the alternative is too horrendous presently:
Any Swapping of Hostages would mean the remainder of Military personnel in JOR-captivity getting traded for thousands of Palestinians in 'Israeli' prisons.
This move would mean the rapid implosion of the Netanyahu government's legitimacy:
The Kahenist faction would leave the coalition & the government would cease to exist, thereby making Netanyahu once more a legitimate target of the various legal cases against him, which would culminate in his incarceration.
Resistance Forces would succeed in pressing their core War aim (i.e., the emptying of Palestinians from 'Israeli' prisons), decimating domestic morale in 'Israel.' A Permanent Ceasefire would likely follow, further rubbing in the 'Aura of Defeat:'
The various latent emotions, tensions, etc., would inevitably boil over into some form of Civil War & the military (already depleted & bloody-nosed in Gazah) would have to restore order somehow.
In short, such 'appeasement' (according to the hardliners in government & society) would compel a rapid sequence of events to take place, leading to The Total Destruction of 'Israel.'
Now, the 'sneakier option' of a Temporary Ceasefire also exists (i.e., whereby the Gazan militiamen temporarily 'take their foot off the gas,' making a muster of forces to attack Lebanon more feasible).
But this has been comprehensively rebuffed by the JOR as of the writing of this piece!
Thus, we come back once more to the Escalatory Option:
Smoke rises following an ‘Israeli’ bombardment in the Gazah Strip, as seen from Southern Occupied Palestine, Sunday, February 4, 2024. (AP)
Sources told Al Mayadeen that the Palestinian Resistance has received a ceasefire proposal that does not go with its vision for ending the war and would enable ‘Israel’ to continue its hostilities.
SOURCE: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/exclusive--resistance-says-no-deal-without-permanent-ceasefi
'Israel' finds itself via the 'escalate to de-escalate '-maxim in a situation where War with Hezbollah is its best bet at garnering a Decisive Outcome, for it would be the most likely pathway toward drawing in the Americans.
The calculus here is relatively straightforward. Should the fighting cross the threshold for Regional War, it would compel America's leaders to side with 'Israel,' as not doing so would irreparably harm the US's vital strategic interests in West Asia.
The problem, of course, is twofold:
First, the strategic liability of holding onto 'Israel,' today seen by most of the Global South as a Genocidal entity, has already surpassed any alleged 'benefit' there may be to continue endorsing its crimes.
Second, America is in no condition to fight a Global War presently.
Granted, even though both these are demonstrably true, the exceptionally foolish Managerial Elites running the show in the USA may yet decide to 'hop in' & assist 'Israel' should it decide to open up the Northern Front against Hezbollah:
If so, Iran will likely step directly into the conflict, as such an escalatory step will, ipso facto, force its hand.
The Americans will then find their bases, assets, etc., targeted in a matter of minutes & hours by Iran's precision munitions, particularly its formidably vast arsenal of SRBMs, IRBMs & Kamikaze UAVs.
America's entry would, far from alleviating the situation in favour of 'Israel' & its carnage in Gazah, would, set all of West Asia ablaze with the flames of War.
Given Iran's direct entry into the War (very likely in such a scenario), no guarantee exists for the 'Israelis' concerning American 'assistance' in their aggression against Hezbollah & Lebanon. This matter, then, opens up another can of worms:
Smoke billows over the southern Lebanese village of Shihine on the border with Israel during an Israeli air strike on Jan. 22, 2024, amid increasing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
Kawnat Haju/AFP via Getty Images
SOURCE: https://abcnews.go.com/International/israel-closer-war-hezbollah-senior-israeli-official/story?id=106675658
Recall that in 2006, Hezbollah & friends decisively repulsed the 'Israeli' ground invasion of Southern Lebanon in around ~30 days of overall fighting:
A militia force of primarily light infantry & skirmish forces (nestled away in the mountains, hills & river-valley networks) achieved this against 10,000 invading 'Israeli' forces (in the first two weeks of hostilities) & then 30,000 in the last few days.
During overall hostilities, the Hezbollah force, which situated itself South of the Litani River, never amounted to more than 1,000 fighters at any given time.
Today's Hezbollah & friends are far more potent than that time.
Mainly, they have moved away from guerilla, skirmish & related tactics to a more Kinetic & longer range warfare:
ATGMs & related munitions, traditionally used against Heavy armour, have been repurposed & modified to be used as 'Snipers' against lightly armed forces, enabling such targets to be precision struck from several kilometres away.
Given said facts, the 'Israel' of today would outright lose in a frontal confrontation against such a force:
Hezbollah & friends may even repulse them fully, occupying most of the Galilee. This move would cut off & surround the Golan Heights garrison, & connect to the West Bank.
If so, 'Israel' may suddenly no longer be 'fighting to assuage the plight of the Northern Settlers,' but rather 'fighting to maintain its very existence as a viable entity.'
Such is the predicament it now finds itself in!
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Excellent piece with two ominous, overlooked(?) pieces left on the fiery chessboard: the Gog-Magog War, with Turkey and Russia drawn into the mix, and the Samson Option, which Israel, faced with an imminent, existential threat, would certainly employ. Frankly, I doubt this mess will devolve into WWIII. I believe a more likely case can be made for Divine intervention. Is it best to be blown to kingdom-come by a thermonuclear device, an EMP or an asteroid? 'Tis a worry.