Iran's Ascension to Great Power Status
What American retreat in West Asia means for the wider region, moving forward
Illustrative: This handout photo provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official website Sepah News on November 5, 2022, shows the launch of the locally-made Ghaem-100 (Qaem-100) satellite launcher in an undisclosed location (SEPAH NEWS / AFP)
On January 20, Iran sent its homegrown Soraya satellite into a low Earth orbit (LEO) with the Qaem-100 satellite carrier. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force successfully put Soraya into an orbit 750 kilometres above Earth in 11 minutes.
The research satellite, manufactured by the Iranian Space Agency, was launched with a Qaem-100, a three-stage satellite carrier with solid fuel developed by the IRGC Aerospace Force.
Source: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/01/27/3029665/iran-raps-eu3-s-interference-over-satellite-launch
“The Islamic Republic of Iran is born out of a movement, based on the pure primordial nature of a people who rose up to regain their dignity, esteem and human rights. The Islamic Revolution toppled a regime which had been put in place through a coup, and supported by those who claim to be advocates of democracy and human rights thwarted the aspirations of the nation for development and progress for 25 years through intimidation and torture of the populace and submission and subservience to outsiders.”
~H.E. Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Address to the United Nations General Assembly (17 September 2005)
The late Zbigniew Brzezinski, when asked about the Neoconservative wet dream of 'invading Iran,' put it succinctly:
Doing so would mean a 2-3 decade-long quagmire, after which US Global Leadership would become a thing of the past due to the economic & social fallout.
What he didn't foresee was the Islamic Republic indigenously developing capabilities that would put most American 'allies' in the region (who have access to a lot of Western gadgetry) to shame.
Today's Iran alone, sans Russia & China, can singlehandedly bring the Global Economy to its knees. This matter is no longer 'mere conjecture,' but something financial analysts at Goldman Sachs & others concluded long ago in their analyses:
War with Iran would mean Sea Mines & related means used to completely shut down the Straits of Hormuz, leading to $200+ per barrel of Oil in the opening days & weeks, with ~$400 per barrel of Oil a possibility 6+ months into the War.
As American retreat from West Asia reaches a crescendo, analysts are alarmed at what the future holds: Particularly, Iran's Ascent to Great Power status is all but guaranteed at this rate. Signs of this ascent are becoming visible for all to see:
SOURCE: https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/
Addendum: This is a 2020 report & is thus outdated as of the writing of this piece. Today’s Iranian Missile Arsenal has a far more fearsome capability, especially regarding its SRBMs & IRBMs.
Today, Iran is a World Leader in Missiles, Rocketry, Artillery, & Drones. In the field of Kamikaze UAVs, many argue that it is *the premier player*, considering the scale & scope of production, exports, etc.
This state of affairs is not by accident. The Iranians have more engineers per capita relative to the USA & other Western nations by a factor of 4x.
As a nation of over 88+ million people, it equals the USA (a country of 340+ million people) for yearly engineering graduates.
Concerning technological breakthroughs in the areas mentioned earlier, the Iranian State Apparatus has roughly the same access to Human resources as Americans while having around a quarter of the overall population.
Thus, sanctions & related sabotage have failed miserably for a simple reason:
Iran, a nation with over 1.6 million square kilometres, over 88 million people & roughly the same number of engineers as America, always had sufficient 'internal strength' to spearhead its own Domestic & indigenous systems, despite Western tinkering.
Other considerations are likewise important:
Iran's geographical location is exceptionally optimal. It has access to the Straits of Hormuz, through which some ~20 million barrels of Oil make daily transit (out of the total ~60 million barrels that go out to International Markets daily).
Iranian allies (sometimes called 'Iranian proxies' by Westerners) have direct access to other vital waterways:
Yemen's Ansarallah can blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb should it choose to. Presently, they have already begun doing so to lift the genocidal 'Israeli' siege on Gazah.
Any 'War with Iran' would therefore mean Sea Mines in the Hormuz Straits, which would decisively cripple the Global Oil Trade. The same would hold for the Bab-el-Mandeb & other vital waterways.
Such a significant conflict would herald the complete & utter Implosion of American & Western economies.
Some trendlines for Industry standards with regard to Crude Oil (i.e., Brent, OPEC basket & WTI). Note: Per the analysis linked above, multiple pathways exist to 200+ USD per barrel of Crude Oil should hostilities commence between the USA & Iran. If so, whole supply chains, logistical hubs & related infrastructures would be rendered Moot.
Not all the likely scenarios imply Global Oil Prices spiking to USD 200+ per barrel. However, the WOC-Simulator linked above indicates that the longer the conflict, the higher the likelihood of disaster.
Let us assume (for the sake of argument) that Western 'leadership' has signed off on such a suicidal play:
Even so, the calibre of opponent they would be dealing with (i.e. In Iran & friends) would be far too great, given the current American capabilities in the region.
For one, the nation is Huge!
Iran, as mentioned earlier, is over 1.6 million square kilometres in Surface Area, & has over 88 million people within its borders.
To give you, Dear Readers, an idea of what that 'looks like:'
That is a greater Surface Area than Alaska, & roughly the same population as Texas, California, Montana, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada & Colorado put together!
(Note: Population-wise, all those states mentioned earlier would be about ~90 million people, roughly equivalent to Iran's current demography).
Iran amounts to 4x of Iraq's Total Surface Area & around 4x of its population during the 2003 American invasion.
More importantly, the Islamic Republic of Iran is a Veritable Mountain Fortress:
The nation's population centres (unlike Iraq) are nestled away in large Mountain-River-Valley networks, accessible only after traversing treacherous terrain.
Any invading force moving 'West to East' would have to breach the Zagros Mountains, guerilla warfare havens that make any 'Big Arrow Offensives' completely impossible. Attrition alone would make the Logistics of such a manoeuvre undoable.
Even if military basing, access, etc., was provided by Iran's neighbours (unlikely in the current geopolitical climate, but let's run with it):
The Carrier Battle Groups don't have sufficient range to strike Tehran, even if they somehow *miraculously survive* Iran's barrage of thousands of ASBMs, SRBMs, IRBMs, etc., & get to Iranian Bay, right off Khuzestan Province.
Topographical Map of The Islamic Republic of Iran.
Note: The Zagros mountains act as a Large Land Barrier in the West, making any expedition into the Interior close to impossible without millions of ‘Boots on the Ground’ supported by a massive Logistics Architecture.
The country itself is Huge & primarily Mountainous, making any air-based campaign Moot since there is not sufficient Range, Basing, etc., available to foray into the interior where the larger Urban Centres reside.
All this is before one considers the significant Iranian arsenal of ASBMs & related munitions, which would render such a large offensive disastrous & outright suicidal.
What this means is three things:
First, the Americans cannot subdue Iran (unlike Iraq, with its Flat Topography) via military force alone.
Second, any military campaign will find itself limited by Topographical variables.
Third, such a conflict would end the 'Rules-based International System.'
For these reasons, successive US administrations have sought some variation of a 'Maximum pressure campaign,' whereby sanctions, sabotage & related dirty tricks get utilized, with the goal being Regime change in Tehran.
While deeply immoral, in the past, such a strategy made sense:
The Iran-Iraq War (where the Americans funded & armed Saddam Hussein & cronies with Biological & Chemical munitions) had demographically decimated the Islamic Republic post-Revolution & the 1990s was primarily spent for 'Rest & Recovery.'
As Iran entered the New Millennium, it did so at the height of the Unipolar moment. Russia was still recovering from its sundry bankruptcies, China had just begun its Economic Miracle, & America was the hegemon that 'nobody messed with.'
Relatively friendless & isolated during this time, Iran found itself lumped into President Bush Jr.'s 'Axis of Evil,' alongside fan favourites like the DPRK & Iraq.
The Iranian leadership, thus, moved slowly & methodically. The first order of business was to strengthen Iran's indigenous capabilities, especially regarding its then somewhat outdated Arsenal of mostly Soviet artillery, missiles, etc.
The second order of business was to gain 'wiggle room' in the arena of trade & commerce so that some of the pressure from the sanctions during the 'Unipolar moment' could be alleviated. American preeminence in this period made things tricky!
Domestic Industry & Manufacturing & Production became vital focus areas. Therefore, in the 2000s, Iran became a veritable innovation hub, albeit not 'by choice.' Lacking access to basic instruments & materials in trade & commerce, it made Key Breakthroughs:
Fateh-110 missile launch. Photo: Hossein Velayati, Wikimedia Commons. First developed in 2004, the Fateh-110 boasts a payload of 0.5 tons & a total launch weight of 3.45 tons. A Road mobile SRBM with a Single-stage solid propellant, its warhead is HE, submunitions & chemical-mount capable. Extremely cheap to build & deploy, they have become the 'bread & butter' of Iran's SRBM arsenal, with hundreds of thousands stored away across bases, sites, etc. in West Asia used by Iran & friends. While the original missile had a range of 200-300 km & an impressive CEP of 100 m, variants now exist with ranges of 300-500 km & CEPs of 10 m & less. These alone give Iran Escalation Dominance in the region.
CSIS Data Sheet: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/fateh-110/
First in SRBMs & then in IRBMs, Iranian Engineers made the best out of their nation's isolation & came up with low-cost, highly reproducible & easily deployable weapons systems. Inadvertently, the sanctions boosted innovation!
As America shed Blood, Treasure, Reputation, & Standing in West Asia, Iranian leadership forged ever closer ties, both Diplomatic & Military:
Iraq, 'left for dead' at the hands of ISIS & related 'Jihadist outfits' (armed, funded & trained by Uncle Sam, of course!), was the first target for said comprehensive outreach.
Iran provided Assistance not only to repel said barbarous proxies but likewise toward the arming, training & standardizing of Iraqi paramilitaries.
These forces took part not only in repelling ISIS & company but likewise played a crucial role in rebuilding the war-weary nation's vital infrastructure, housing, etc. As such, today, they are viewed (rightfully so) as National Heroes.
In Lebanon, Syed Nasrallah found Iran a close ally & a beacon of innovation.
Following Hezbollah's Shock Victory over the Zionists in 2006, Iranian expertise supercharged its Missile & Drone capabilities.
Today's Hezbollah not only indigenously produces its Drones, Missiles, etc., but likewise has hundreds of thousands of said munitions in reserve.
For Syria's Bashar al-Assad, this meant ready help with both weapons & manpower at the height of the Syrian Civil War:
Hezbollah & friends helped in said front while Iranian engineers, technicians & officers assisted the Syrian Arab Army & their Russian allies in expelling ISIS & related American proxies.
Yemen's Ansarallah, during the brutal Saudi-led invasion of Yemen, found in Iran similar Assistance in munitions & developing its indigenous capabilities, & today has a feared ASBM & Drone Arsenal.
Overall, the 'Axis of Evil' into which Iran got lumped had, by the mid-2010s, become a reality… The Axis of Resistance was formally born!
An Overview of the Axis of Resistance leaders & their respective nations &/or militias. Full CSIS report circa 2018 regarding the Axis of Resistance hyperlinked above, as needed.
Note: A significant chunk of the info in the report is (a) outdated & (b) Western-centric in language & orientation, thereby biased. That said, it’s always a good idea to know what it is the ‘Americans think’ about their foes!
Which is why I have decided to link the full report for your reading pleasure, Dear Readers! Enjoy!
As the Axis grew, Iran's global stature grew as well. No longer friendless & isolated, it began reaching out to the Great Powers of Russia & China.
Per usual, Uncle Sam & cronies 'pulled all the stops' to prevent said outcome:
Iranian Diplomats, Military attaches, etc., were assassinated, imprisoned, etc., for much of the mid to late 2010s & early 2020s. But what Iranian leadership had gleaned from their work with the Resistance movements had by now changed them:
No longer was Iran a nation that was to be bullied & cowed by Western hegemony. The Axis of Resistance had, via the burdens of leadership, granted Iran leadership responsibilities over vast swathes of West Asia.
Resistance leaders & fighters had likewise shown the Iranians the courage, endurance & perseverance required to combat a far more formidable foe in all realms. These traits eventually 'settled' onto Iranian leadership:
What began with Iran trying to assist various organic militias & peoples in their struggle against the Zionists & their cronies in the region had by now transformed Iran & its people into a 'beating heart' of resistance against Unipolar Hegemony.
American bullying & so-called 'maximum pressure' thus had the opposite effect, securing once & for all Iranian ties to the broader Eurasian architectures set in motion by Russia & China. One by one, Iran bound itself to these organizations:
First, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in July 2023, & then BRICS+ in January 2024, Iran finally broke free from decades of friendlessness & isolation.
Centuries ago, Iran was A Central Hub for trade, commerce, etc., that connected West to East. With Iran's formal ascent to the organizations above, it once more found this Central, connective role coming back to the forefront via Eurasian integration.
However, the task was still incomplete:
In this file picture, US soldiers walk while on patrol by the Suwaydiyah oil fields in Syria's northeastern province of Hasakah. (File photo by AFP)
On January 28, three US service members were killed and 25 injured from a one-way attack UAS that impacted at a base in northeast Jordan, near the Syria border according to CENTCOM. In accordance with DoD policy, the identities of the service members will be withheld until 24 hours after their next of kin have been notified.
A US official told Reuters news agency that at least 34 service members were being examined for possible traumatic brain injury. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq released a statement claiming responsibility for the drone attack on Al-Tanf base at the Syria-Jordan border.
In December, US officials said that military bases housing American troops in Iraq and Syria had been attacked at least 97 times since October 17.
American forces, a bane to the region since the so-called 'Global War on Terror' began post 9/11, remained in much of the area. In Iraq & Syria, contingents of US mercenaries, proxies & regular troops still exercise considerable sway:
Should it ascend to the status of Great Power, Iran cannot do so with said forces in & around 'its neighbourhood.' It has now become incumbent, once & for all, to expel the Americans & their proxies from the wider region:
Not doing so means that agents of abject chaos, ruin, death & destruction remain with their daggers pointed toward Tehran & friends, thereby making future regional integrations in trade, commerce, culture, etc., impractical.
Access to the Mediterranean via the Lebanese & Syrian ports is 'blocked off' via strategically placed US garrisons that keep the IRGC's heavier strike weapons hemmed in & away from 'Israel.' The US needs to be, therefore, displaced.
The Genocide & Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza have likewise made the Iranian case for the Forceful ejection of American forces from West Asia the only morally sound pursuit.
Whether the Empire of Lies is willing to wage a Total War against Iran to prevent this remains to be seen!
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Very thorough and informative analysis. Thank you! 🙏
Fantastic job! Thank you!