It will seem contradictory if I say that I deliberately shun most 'News' - it is too depressing and enervating. I don't mean the constant reminders that the world is a mess, DOOM-mongering if you like ;-) BUT the stench of the ideology that is imbricated with every headline: the West and the Rest (was that Edward Said? I forget) to simplify madly.
I do seem to absorb the key happenings regardless, and one which has me puzzled is the relative rapprochement between U$A and Venezuela in the last few months of 2023. Any thoughts on why this has come to be? I did wonder if Venezuelan oil was a factor, having a relatively local backup supply would be in American interests.
Very pleased to discover this SubStack and looking forward to your spin on the DG&D sure to assail us in the coming months.
Short answer: Heavy Oil from Venezuela is an "insurance" against the coming Shutdown of the Trade Routes by the Muslim peoples (I say peoples not the so-called bribed leaders since their hands will be forced); Iran at present is leading the charge.
Longer answer: Venezuelan Heavy Oil is what (in a conflict scenario) would keep Huge Gas Guzzlers like the USN, the Army, etc running (at least for a few weeks & months)
Now, the Venezuelan leadership are not stupid: they know what the next move on the chessboard is (recall; they are members of Iran's Axis of Resistance):
The Strait of Hormuz will be shut down soon & the Gibraltar strait likewise will be either outright shut down or blockaded partially...
... this means that Western Armies & Navies (especially the American ones) become useless overnight. Already; the weapons systems they use are legacy ones that are too costly:
An Arrow interceptor costs about 1-2 million USD. To even 'fire up' the system you burn through a couple million USD. All of this btw assumes that energy resources are at certain prices & are accessible courtesy of being in reserve.
The goal is to have all the lovely Toys (costing 2k-20k USD) get intercepted by 2-3 interceptors on average; whittling down defensive arsenals.
THEN you shut down World Trade & Commerce & do lightning speed attacks using "low tech" assets. Whatever "Western stuff" left will be used (at higher costs) to try & intercept all that.
Once 95%+ of all defenses are drained; you go for the Kill shot using SRBMs, ASBMs & IRBMs. Of course, the assumption here is that by now (despite everything) the Empire of Lies chooses to NOT back down & listen to Lindsey graham, John bolton & other lunatics, madmen & charlatans.
... but that in a nutshell is the next 8-10 moves on the Chessboard of Geopolitics.
My next few moves are to get the hell out of southern England, buy a small hovel in the North, and huddle down as best I can. I was considering a choice between a slightly more expensive village location, problem being there's only one road in and out, very little infrastructure; or a nearby town (about 40 thou population) which is somewhat run-down and prone to petty crime, drugs etc... but has such quaint throwbacks as shops, a library, even a post office, all in walking distance. It's not a tough decision. Stay in after dark with the cat and buckets of popcorn. Part of me wonders if this won't very soon seem like a deluded pipedream but my carpentry skills and ability to gather beasts in twos is limited.
It's less me being a 'crystal ball' & more a matter of studying the subject:
People who go crazy & commit atrocities eventually 'corner themselves' & leave fewer options on the table for their Team (as opposed to more rational, prudent actors).
This makes their mad descent into Rage followed by their Fall, very predictable.
It will seem contradictory if I say that I deliberately shun most 'News' - it is too depressing and enervating. I don't mean the constant reminders that the world is a mess, DOOM-mongering if you like ;-) BUT the stench of the ideology that is imbricated with every headline: the West and the Rest (was that Edward Said? I forget) to simplify madly.
I do seem to absorb the key happenings regardless, and one which has me puzzled is the relative rapprochement between U$A and Venezuela in the last few months of 2023. Any thoughts on why this has come to be? I did wonder if Venezuelan oil was a factor, having a relatively local backup supply would be in American interests.
Very pleased to discover this SubStack and looking forward to your spin on the DG&D sure to assail us in the coming months.
Short answer: Heavy Oil from Venezuela is an "insurance" against the coming Shutdown of the Trade Routes by the Muslim peoples (I say peoples not the so-called bribed leaders since their hands will be forced); Iran at present is leading the charge.
Longer answer: Venezuelan Heavy Oil is what (in a conflict scenario) would keep Huge Gas Guzzlers like the USN, the Army, etc running (at least for a few weeks & months)
Now, the Venezuelan leadership are not stupid: they know what the next move on the chessboard is (recall; they are members of Iran's Axis of Resistance):
The Strait of Hormuz will be shut down soon & the Gibraltar strait likewise will be either outright shut down or blockaded partially...
... this means that Western Armies & Navies (especially the American ones) become useless overnight. Already; the weapons systems they use are legacy ones that are too costly:
An Arrow interceptor costs about 1-2 million USD. To even 'fire up' the system you burn through a couple million USD. All of this btw assumes that energy resources are at certain prices & are accessible courtesy of being in reserve.
The goal is to have all the lovely Toys (costing 2k-20k USD) get intercepted by 2-3 interceptors on average; whittling down defensive arsenals.
THEN you shut down World Trade & Commerce & do lightning speed attacks using "low tech" assets. Whatever "Western stuff" left will be used (at higher costs) to try & intercept all that.
Once 95%+ of all defenses are drained; you go for the Kill shot using SRBMs, ASBMs & IRBMs. Of course, the assumption here is that by now (despite everything) the Empire of Lies chooses to NOT back down & listen to Lindsey graham, John bolton & other lunatics, madmen & charlatans.
... but that in a nutshell is the next 8-10 moves on the Chessboard of Geopolitics.
CHECKMATE is very near.
My next few moves are to get the hell out of southern England, buy a small hovel in the North, and huddle down as best I can. I was considering a choice between a slightly more expensive village location, problem being there's only one road in and out, very little infrastructure; or a nearby town (about 40 thou population) which is somewhat run-down and prone to petty crime, drugs etc... but has such quaint throwbacks as shops, a library, even a post office, all in walking distance. It's not a tough decision. Stay in after dark with the cat and buckets of popcorn. Part of me wonders if this won't very soon seem like a deluded pipedream but my carpentry skills and ability to gather beasts in twos is limited.
What a shitshow.
Amazing insight as always sir. Gotta run but will delve into this much deeper when I have some time. You have become a crystal ball. Thanks
It's less me being a 'crystal ball' & more a matter of studying the subject:
People who go crazy & commit atrocities eventually 'corner themselves' & leave fewer options on the table for their Team (as opposed to more rational, prudent actors).
This makes their mad descent into Rage followed by their Fall, very predictable.
As always, Thank you for the Kinds words!
An excellent summary of the regrettable state of the world. If you want to know where and why conflict may soon escalate, read this.
Thank you for kind words good sir!